618
FXUS63 KBIS 050802
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
202 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for precipitation across
  much of the area late Thursday, and again Friday night into
  Saturday.

- Low to medium chances (20 to 50 percent) for accumulating snow
  across northwest and central North Dakota Friday night into
  Saturday, but only low chances (10 to 30 percent) for more
  than one inch of snow.

- Near to above normal temperatures through Thursday followed
  by below normal temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Surface high pressure continues to move across eastern Montana into
western North Dakota. This has bought forth morning low temperatures
into the lower 20s. Models have been pegging fog development across
the southwestern half of the state this morning. If fog develops it
will likely clear out a few hours after sunrise. High temperatures
today are forecast to warm into the 40s with some lower 50s in the
southwest. A warm front will move through the region this evening
and an upper level ridge builds out west. Overnight lows are
forecast to warm into the 30s as the aforementioned warm front move
through the region.

Thursday, temperatures are forecast to warm into the lower 40s in
the northeast and the lower 60s in the southwest. An upper level
ridge will dampen Thursday as another upper level low passes through
the region. Thus, causing a 20 degree high temperature spread from
the southwest to the northeast. The far north has a low chance for
rain during the day with a low to medium chance of a rain snow mix
in the evening into overnight hours. This rain snow mix could expand
across the north central Friday morning. A cold frontal passage will
likely lead to breezy conditions across the western half of the
state Thursday afternoon.

Upper level broad troughing across the Hudson Bay into the Northern
Plains will persist through the weekend leading to lingering cold
airmass across the state. High temperatures Friday will range from
the upper 20s in the northeast to the upper 40s in the southwest.
This colder air will remain trapped through the weekend keeping
temperatures below normal. Another upper level low is forecast to
move out of Saskatchewan Saturday into North Dakota bringing in
medium chances for rain and snow across the state and windy
conditions out west. Mostly snow is expected Saturday as this upper
low moves through the region and temperature remain near freezing.
Snow accumulations of a trace to 1 inch are possible across much of
the state excluding the southwest. The north central will likely see
the higher accumulations. Ensembles have hinted at a return to upper
level ridging out west come next week which will likely bring back
above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Freezing fog could develop early this morning, with higher
probabilities in southwest North Dakota. Light and variable
winds will veer out of the southeast later today. Then western
portions of the state could see wind gusts around 20 kts this
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson