954
FXUS63 KBIS 042057
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
357 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will continue again this afternoon with
  an isolated to scattered chance for severe weather east of the
  Missouri River. The biggest hazards are half dollar size
  hail, 70mph winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Another chance for isolated to scattered severe storms
  Saturday in the west.

- Warm and humid conditions today with a cooling trend through
  the rest of the weekend. Daily thunderstorm chances will carry
  over into early next week with a chance of severe weather
  returning next.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A cold front continues to progress across the state with storms
firing along the front. High CAPE around 2000-3500 j/kg and low
shear around 20 kts has prompted severe isolated to scattered
severe storms this afternoon. The main hazards with these storms
are half dollar size hail and 70 mph winds. DCAPE is around
1000-1400 j/kg which will support strong downburst. This threat
is mainly for the James River Valley this afternoon and eastern
North Dakota. These storms along the cold front could cause
localized heavy rain which could result in localized flooding.
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
behind the front. These storms will not be severe and elevated
in nature. Temperatures will continue to cool off behind the
frontal passage as winds shift out of the north.

An upper level trough will pass across the region Saturday
leading to increased rain chances and cooler temperatures.
High temperatures are forecast to drop down into the lower 70s
to lower 80s. The James River Valley could see breezy winds from
pressure rises. The wrap around precipitation from an upper
level low is forecast to bring in showers and thunderstorms
Saturday morning. The CAMs are highlighting a line of
convection moving out of eastern Montana late Saturday into
western North Dakota where the environment will weaken this line.
This line could cause scattered severe storms as it crossed the
state border. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats Saturday night. The wave brought in the line of
convection Saturday night will lead weak showers and
thunderstorms Sunday morning across the state. Temperatures will
drop back down into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.

Monday zonal flow is forecast to return with an upper level low
moving across Saskatchewan. Ensembles have precipitation in the
as there is afternoon as thunderstorms. As the there upper low
passes there is around 40-50 kts of 0-6 km of shear however the
global models differ on instability. CSU machine learning
program has backed off on Monday with the GEFs having lower
instability, however I would not be surprised so see this trend
up this weekend. CSU machine learning program is also highlighting
potential Tuesday and Thursday for a return severe weather.
Temperatures will continue trend up next week back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions will continue today, however there maybe
temporary visibility reductions heavy rain from TSRA.
Thunderstorms and showers will continue this afternoon mainly
impacting KJMS through the evening hours. SHRA is possible
across all sites expect KXWA this afternoon. A cold front will
continue to move through the state this afternoon and evening
resulting in a wind shift to northerly winds by tomorrow
morning. FU from fireworks in the Bismarck area will likely
cause visibility reductions at the terminal this evening through
the overnight hours. This has been the case the last few
Independence Days.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson