546
FXUS63 KBIS 181949
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
249 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered snow or rain showers will continue
  passing through this afternoon.

- Warming trend this weekend.

- Widespread medium to high chances for rain spread over the
  area Monday, with chances remaining into Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Current surface analysis places low over the upper Midwest into
Ontario, while high stretches from central Montana into
Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places low along the
Manitoba/Ontario Border, stretching southwest towards the
Utah/Nevada border. Over our area, isolated to scattered
snow/rain showers continue along and ahead of the trough, some
being rather intense for short periods of time briefly reducing
visibility to under a half mile.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, aforementioned
showers will continue to move through the area before
dissipating as we get into the evening with clouds diminishing.

On Saturday, a quiet day is expected as thermal ridge pushes
over the area, with highs pushing into the 50s, possibly low
60s. With that said, atmosphere will be quite dry with humidity
values dipping into the mid teens to mid 20s in the afternoon
over most areas. South to southwest winds should remain on the
lighter side, around 10 to 15 mph over most areas, but over the
northwest winds may be a bit stronger, around 15 to 20 mph
resulting in near critical fire weather conditions given the low
humidity.

On Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected over most locations
with the possible exception being over the far west where a
weak wave pushing into the area may result in increasing cloud
cover and possibly a light rain shower.

On Monday, an upper trough deepens over the Pacific northwest
and tries to close off near the International Border as it makes
its way to the east. Rain chances will be on the increase from
west to east on Monday into Monday night, with most locations
expected to see some rain (~60 to 80 percent). Chances linger
into Tuesday, gradually pushing off to the east Tuesday night.
Pattern remains rather unsettled through the remainder of the
week with low to medium chances for precipitation continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Widespread MVFR to low end VFR ceilings will remain over the
area this afternoon, with improvement this evening. By late
tonight into Saturday, VFR conditions will prevail. In addition,
isolated to scattered rain and snow showers continue to move
through parts of western and central North Dakota. These may
lead to a brief period of IFR visibility as they pass through,
but the duration should be short.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS