226
FXUS63 KBIS 151945
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry today through Sunday, although low chances (20-30%)
  for thunderstorms return to the southwest Sunday afternoon.

- Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and isolated
  thunderstorms Sunday night.

- Near daily low to medium chances (20-60%) chances for rain
  expected through the week.

- Below normal temperatures this weekend, followed by a brief
  warm up on Monday. Cooler Tuesday and Wednesday, then warming
  later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Zonal flow aloft continues across the Northern Plains as the surface
low over northern Minnesota move eastward. Satellite imagery shows
clouds continuing to clear across the west as temperatures warm into
the 70s. There is a chance that some of the low clouds hang on
a little longer in central and eastern North Dakota then what
models have forecast. Tonight, overnight lows are forecast to
drop down around the mid 40s out west as surface high pressure
moves into the region with 50s elsewhere. Sunday, high
temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s and 80s across
the area as surface high pressure will clear skies before a
weak ridge moves across the High Plains. There is some marginal
instability possible across the southwest tomorrow afternoon
which could result in a low chance of strong storms. The CSU ML
program is pegging a low chance for severe weather tomorrow
afternoon. An upper level wave could kick storms off in the
afternoon and evening continuing precipitation into the over
night hours mainly across the southern half of the state.
Overnight low Sunday are forecast to drop down into the 50s.

Monday, temperatures will continue to warm into the 80s as the
ridge out west strengthens. There is another low chance of
strong to severe storms in the southeastern half of the state
extending into the James River Valley Monday afternoon. This
will bring a front to the region which will slightly cool
temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Another wave could move through
the region Tuesday bringing forth low to medium chances of rain
across the state. Low chances for precipitation will continue on
through the week tapering off by the weekend as an upper level
ridge builds over the region which will lead to warmer weather.
This ridge could push temperatures back into the upper 80s to
lower 90s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Low ceilings will continue to increase in height this afternoon
leading to VFR conditions across all terminals and expect for
KJMS which may improve this evening. Clouds are beginning to
scatter out across the west improving ceiling as well. Winds
will remain out of the northwest as a front passes through the
region.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson