839
FXUS63 KBIS 241931
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening. Expected hazards include hail up to
  golf ball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph, with an
  isolated tornado possible.

- Very hot conditions will return through the weekend, with
  dangerous heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees.

- Smoke from distant wildfires will make skies hazy today and
  may bring reduced surface visibility tonight into Saturday.

- The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions will create
  near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and
  again on Sunday, mainly in the southwest and parts of the
  south central.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Potential severe weather remains the primary forecast challenge for
this afternoon. WAA off an amplifying ridge over the Rockies, along
with a passing weak surface frontal boundary, may help to
initiate thunderstorms this afternoon. With rapidly rising
temperatures in the southwest and south central, capping would
seem like less of an issue as indicated by the SPC mesoanalysis
page. This would also explain why some CAMs are initiating
convection further west than previously thought. That said, the
18Z KBIS sounding shows very dry air in place, while not even a
few bubbles of a cu field are present on satellite. What also
seems interesting is that the left exit region of the upper
level jet appears to be located closer to the International
Border. Overall, there remains a conditional severe threat for
the forecast area, though wondering if the better dynamics
overall will wind up lining up further north and east.
Nevertheless, with ample MLCAPE and plenty of deep layer shear,
there remains plenty of opportunity for severe weather this
afternoon and early evening.

The primary threats for today remain wind gusts of 70 mph and
golf ball size hail. In regard to the tornado threat, while
model forecast hodographs suggest some curvature in the lower
levels mainly over the south central east of the Missouri River,
LCLs are also increasing. This overall seems to favor strong
wind gusts over tornadogenesis from the James River Valley and
west. Still, cannot completely rule out a tornado if
thunderstorms were to persist into the evening hours in the
James River Valley.

Once any thunderstorms clear out this evening, dry conditions
are expected tonight through Saturday. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and Sunday, though
severe weather is not anticipated at this time. With the
amplifying ridge sliding further east, expect very hot
conditions to return Saturday and Sunday. Very dry conditions
along and west of the Missouri River will see minimum relative
humidity drop down into the teens (possibly low 20s in the
Missouri River Valley) off mid 40 to mid 50 degree dewpoints,
while highs reach up to 105. East of the Missouri River Valley
will see highs up to 100 albeit with dewpoints in the 60s. With
these very hot conditions, issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday
afternoon through the day Sunday. In the far southwest where the
driest conditions are anticipated, near critical fire weather
conditions are expected this afternoon and possibly again on
Sunday.

For next week, above average temperatures are expected to
continue. While there might be a slight "cooling" trend, NBM
forecasts are still mostly in the 90s. Periodic low shower and
thunderstorm chances are in the forecast for next week, with the
highest probabilities during the middle of the week. A few
storms could be severe on any given day, though no day next week
is currently worthy of enhanced messaging at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and early evening. Some storms may be severe with large hail
and damaging winds. All terminals could be impacted, though KBIS
and KJMS are the only ones with high enough confidence to
include PROB30s at this time. Smoke today has not panned out as
well as models had suggested. Therefore, based on current
conditions and upstream observations, pulled smoke mentions out
of TAFs for now. Still, visibility reductions aren`t entirely
out of the question tonight into Saturday if a passing cold
frontal boundary can bring more smoke to the surface.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-
040>044-046>048-050-051-057>062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken