Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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539 FXUS63 KBIS 092107 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 307 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain will continue through this evening then diminish tonight, mainly across south central and southeastern portions. - Patchy to areas of fog, possibly dense at times, may return tonight into Sunday morning, especially across south central and southeastern portions. - Near to above average temperatures continue through the coming workweek. - The next opportunity for light rain comes Tuesday through early Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Large low pressure system across the Central Plains will continue to bring rain showers across southern and eastern portions of North Dakota. How far north this band of rain still remains somewhat uncertain, although current radar trends indicate this band may be only slightly west and southward of the forecast this morning. Overall look for a band of rain from about Hettinger to Bismarck to Carrington and eastward through this evening, then diminishing tonight. Areas without rain will have a dry and mild evening with mid to high clouds. As the low moves eastward tonight precipitation will become less organized and gradually diminish. Ridging aloft will diminish winds at the surface. Lingering moisture from the rain combined with these light winds could make for some patchy to areas of fog tonight into Sunday morning. Have added fog mention into the forecast and the HWO given some hi-res models and soundings showing its potential. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s, with the cooler temperatures coming in the west. Weak ridging moves east Sunday. Mild temperatures in place will then be found across much of the CWA with highs generally in the 50s. A weak and mainly dry surface cold front will push through later in the day. This will switch winds to the west, and could provide for some breezy winds at times. Surface high then moves through Sunday night into Monday. This will calm winds and clear skies. Lows will generally be in the 20s, although perhaps some upper teens are possible. Patchy to areas of fog may also return during this time period, although confidence was not high enough to include at this time. Veterans Day is then cooler with more normal to perhaps slightly below normal temperatures behind Sunday`s front. Conditions will remain dry as a high pressure ridge moves overhead. This ridge looks to be short lived as a trough and cold front looks to move through sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring our next chances for rain and perhaps some breezy winds at times. Mild air looks to remain in the area during this time and daytime highs in the 50s are forecast, with lows generally in the 30s. Generally dry and mild conditions are then forecast for late next workweek as flow aloft returns to being zonal from a flattening ridge. Long term guidance continues to hint at broad troughing moving into the northern Plains as we head into next weekend, which would represent the next opportunity for precipitation if this pattern pans out. Cooler temperatures may also return, although this is also dependent on how this pattern sets up. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Light rain is expected to develop across south central and southeastern portions this afternoon, linger through this evening, then diminish tonight. MVFR conditions are possible in these rain showers, and are expected mainly from KHEI to KBIS to K46D and eastward. This could impact the KBIS and KJMS TAF sites. Areas not impacted by rain today will see increasing clouds yet generally VFR conditions. After the rain diminishes tonight, fog may form and linger into Sunday morning. This could bring some areas of IFR to perhaps LIFR conditions. Confidence was not high enough to include fog in the TAFs at this time, although some lower cloud ceilings were introduced to some sites. Areas that receive rain today will be the main areas to monitor for fog tonight. Winds through the forecast period will overall be light and become westerly and perhaps somewhat breezy on Sunday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin