402
FXUS63 KBIS 181726
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1126 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20 percent chance of light rain south this afternoon and
  tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Above average highs mainly in the 40s to low 50s this
  workweek, though highs in the upper 30s are forecast
  periodically in the northeast and in the Turtle Mountains.

- Colder temperatures and above average precipitation are
  favored for the last week of November.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A new set of showers continue to expand across central North
Dakota moving into the James River Valley in the next few hours.
This wave will bring light rain to south central. Updated PoPs
to match the current trends, no other updates needed at this
time.

UPDATE
Issued at 848 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low stratus continues across the state. There are few showers
moving into the James River Valley. Quiet weather continues
across the state no updates are needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Isolated rain showers continue early this morning mainly over
south central ND, while those in the northwest have dissipated.
CAMs suggest remaining showers will dissipate over the next
couple to few hours as well. As these rain showers head
eastward, temperatures are simultaneously rising. Therefore, any
freezing rain is unlikely at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A little light rain continues passing through central North
Dakota early this morning, with light returns approaching the
far northwest. However, temperatures remain in the mid 30s for
central parts of the state. Therefore, the probability for
freezing rain this morning remains low in the central. The
far northwest, on the other hand, is colder. But returns up
there appear pretty light with little evidence of anything
reaching the surface. As such, not expecting much more than
flurries or sprinkles in the northwest this morning. Either way,
any light precipitation within the state should end towards
sunrise, or shortly thereafter. Mostly dry conditions are then
expected for the day today before another shortwave potentially
brings light rain passing from west to east tonight and into
Wednesday morning. Lows where mentionable PoPs are present
generally remain above freezing. So unless skies clear prior to
rain falling (not the favored solution at this time), freezing
rain potential tonight seems pretty low as well.

For the remainder of the week, mostly dry zonal to northwesterly
flow aloft is forecast. Without a particularly cool airmass in
place, this will maintain above average temperatures for most
locations, most days, as highs generally remain in the 40s to
low 50s. Cooler highs in the upper 30s are forecast in the
northeast and Turtle Mountains at times. However, average highs
in those areas are already less than 35 degrees, while areas
further west and south are closer to 40 degrees. Lows are also
expected to remain above average and mostly in the upper 20s to
mid 30s, though are progged to become a bit cooler at for
Wednesday and Thursday nights.

For next week, trends favor much cooler conditions next week,
though NBM ensemble temperature spreads remain high. In
addition, the CPC also continues to favor above average
precipitation. Bear in mind, above average precipitation for
this time of of year is only around 15 hundredths of liquid
equivalent, or approximately any system that drops 1 to 3 inches
of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR ceilings should clear out of the KBIS area in the next few
hours. VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with some
showers in the James River Valley. Winds will continue out of
the south veering slightly to the southwest by tomorrow. There
is a chance for light precipitation returning tomorrow with some
MVFR ceilings. Western terminals could see patchy fog late
tonight into early tomorrow morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson/Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Johnson