916
FXUS63 KBIS 230008
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
608 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures this weekend through much of
  next week. Southwest and south central North Dakota could have
  multiple days of highs in the 50s.

- Windy Sunday through Monday, especially in southwest North
  Dakota on Monday.

- Sunday there is a 20 to 50 percent for light precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A mild and dry evening is on tap for western and central North
Dakota under a canopy of mostly mid to high clouds. Clouds will
gradually start to clear from west to east overnight as winds
start to increase. Expect well above normal lows for tonight,
ranging from the mid/upper teens northeast to the mid/upper 20s
southwest. No major changes were needed for this update. Just
blended in the latest observations to the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Warmer weather continues across the region as temperatures climb
across the state into the upper 20s north to the lower 40s. Warm
westerly winds continue to help temperatures across the state
as warmer air aloft is able to mix down to the surface. Above
freezing temperatures will continue to pick away at the snow
pack across the state. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast
to drop down into the mid teens northeast to the upper 20s
southwest. The warmer weather is here to stay.

Upper level ridging over Western CONUS will continue to keep the
persistent warm weather across the Northern Plains this weekend
into much of next week. Temperatures will continue their upward
trend Sunday as high temperatures are forecast to rise into the
upper 30s north to the lower 50s southwest and south central.
The upper level ridge will flatten out a bit bringing forth
westerly zonal flow over North Dakota. Forecast soundings show
40 to 50 kts at 850 mb that could mix down tomorrow afternoon
causing windy conditions across the state. Sunday night low
temperatures are forecast to sit in the upper 20s to lower 30s
leading to some prolonged melting.

Monday a clipper system is forecast to move through the state
bringing in a 20-50 percent chance of rain. In addition a 130 kt
jet maxima will push over eastern Montana into southwestern
North Dakota Monday. This could lead to strong winds mixing down
to the surface leading to wind headlines. Forecast soundings
show a strong signal of 850 mb winds around 50 to 60 kts mixing
down to the surface in southwestern North Dakota. Another round
of precipitation could move into the state Tuesday, as system
traverses the jet stream, with a 20 to 40 percent chance of
rain. Above normal temperatures will continue into next week,
however the northeastern half of state could see more seasonable
conditions as a colder Arctic airmass moves into the Great
Lakes region. Temperatures could decrease a few degrees by the
end of the week due to the proximity of the colder airmass over
the Great Lakes. Thus, more seasonable conditions are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period.
Some enhanced low level wind shear will be possible Sunday
morning across the west, and in the afternoon across the
central. Winds will also become breezy out of the west
southwest through the Sunday morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...ZH