617
FXUS63 KBIS 212036
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
336 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures are favored to continue through next
  week, with Monday being a slightly warmer day.

- There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of light rain shower or a
  thunderstorm moving southeast across central North Dakota
  this afternoon.

- Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms late Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft with an elongated upper level
ridge stretched from the Southern Rockies into the Pacific
Northwest. Embedded wave and subtle frontal boundary
contributing to an area of showers/isolated thunderstorms moving
south-southeast across the area this afternoon. This activity
will move out of the general area over the next few hours, with
a quiet night expected with sfc high pressure building in.

Surface high pressure building into the Northern Plains will
result in quiet weather to start the weekend. As the sfc high
develops east across the region, increasing southerly return
flow will see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
along with temperature trending warmer Sunday into Monday.

The remainder of the week will see a Rockies upper level ridge
rebuilding and periodically breaking down, resulting in seasonal
temperatures though periods of enhanced precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light
rain showers will move to the southeast today, unlikely to
cause categorical flight restrictions. Light and variable winds
will increase to around 10 kts this afternoon, with a north to
northwest direction in central North Dakota and a northeast to
east direction in western North Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...