280
FXUS63 KBIS 240144
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
844 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below average temperatures through Monday, with highs
  mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper 30s and
  40s.

- Chances for precipitation are very low through the middle of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Diurnal cu is present across most of the state, though should
dissipate rapidly over the next couple to few hours. Breezy
winds will also diminish over the next few hours becoming light
across the state, while generally maintaining a northerly
component. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Northwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains today,
stuck as we are between a stacked Hudson Bay Low to the
northeast and an upper level high lingering across the desert
southwest. At the surface, high pressure is bleeding in across
western North Dakota, helping to keep conditions across the
forecast area dry. Breezy north to northwest winds are
are found across eastern North Dakota, including the James
River Valley, as a LLJ slips to the southeast, and a tight
pressure gradient remains draped between the aforementioned high
to the west and the stacked low to the northeast. Winds today
are expected to broadly reach into the 15 to 20 MPH range with
gusts up to around 25 to 30 MPH. Otherwise a much cooler airmass
remains in place over North Dakota today, with high
temperatures forecast in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Similar
clear, calm, and dry conditions are anticipated Sunday, with
highs forecast in the lower 60s to lower 70s.

Now onto overnight lows. With high pressure continuing to creep
south and eastward tonight, temperatures Sunday and Monday
morning are expected to well below seasonable normals by around
10 degrees or more. Across the west this (Saturday) morning,
where skies were clear and winds were relatively calm, we
already saw low temperatures drop to as low as the upper 30s in
some isolated locations. This is not overly surprisingly given
the pattern, our coldest nights here in western and central
North Dakota tend to occur whenever we experience high pressure
moving in over the southcentral ND to Aberdeen, SD corridor.
With this in mind, we have dropped low temperatures across the
west tonight to the NBM 10th percent, and into a 1:1 blend of
the NBM 10th and NBM 20th percentile across central North
Dakota. For Sunday, we went with the same 1:1 10th and 25th
percentile blend across the whole forecast area. With this, low
temperatures both nights drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s
overall. This particular recipe keeps the frost potential both
nights fairly low, though we would not be shocked if model runs
over the next day or so keeps dropping temperatures on Monday
even lower. Messaging wise, we will mention the possibility of
frost in low- lying areas Monday night.

Looking ahead to next week, northwesterly to near meridional
flow is progged to continue over the northern Plains as the high
pressure across the desert southwest begins to displace the
Hudson Bay low further and further east. With a robust ridging
developing across the Great Plains through the workweek, dry and
calm conditions are generally anticipated to persist. Some low
chances for precipitation do build into ensemble by the later
half (around or less than 15 percent) of the workweek, as a
minority cluster (approximately 25 percent of members) advertise
a slightly slower ejection of the Hudson Bay low further south,
leaving the northern Plains in more strictly northwesterly flow.
This pattern would allow the odd shortwave to move through the
region and induce light showers. Even in this scenario overall
rain totals and impact would remain quite low. Despite highs
warming back into the 70s and 80s through the workweek, a lack
of moisture across the forecast area would render the potential
for severe thunderstorms quite low throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.
Scattered diurnal cu is present across most of the state and
may produce occasional VFR ceilings of around 5 to 7 kft, though
will rapidly dissipate over the next couple to few hours.
Breezy northwesterly to northerly winds will also diminish over
the next few hours, becoming light while generally maintaining a
northerly component tonight and through the day Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Telken