152
FXUS63 KBIS 151951
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
251 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot conditions will continue across southern North Dakota
  through Thursday, with afternoon heat index values as high as
  100, high temperatures around 95 to 100, and low temperatures around
  65 to 70.

- Temperatures are favored to remain above normal for most areas
  through the weekend, with cooler conditions arriving early
  next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may return
  this evening through tonight, especially across northern
  North Dakota. The threat for severe weather is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Ridge of high pressure will remain over the region tonight,
shifting slightly southeastward for Thursday. Hot temperatures
will remain as a result. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to lower
70s will offer limited relief, while highs back in the 90s to
near 100 degrees return for Thursday. A slight increase in
humidity may also be found for Thursday, keeping apparent
temperatures near 100 degrees. Although Thursday`s more
impactful Heat Risk may be more central and eastern locations,
will maintain the Heat Advisory as is for tonight through
Thursday evening. Developing low in Wyoming will bring a
boundary across the north tonight brining more chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to remain modest through
tonight, although instability looks more limited tonight. Thus
the threat for severe weather remains low through tonight. There
are some CAMs that bring a few thunderstorms across south
central portions including the James River Valley this evening.
These areas are starting to see a CU field develop, and have
modest uncapped instability currently. Shear in these areas are
also modest. The limiting factors are skinny CAPE profiles,
limited lift, and overall dry soundings. Thus confidence was
only high enough to add 10 percent chances for this afternoon
and evening. Surface low moves across the region on Thursday
through Thursday night, although limited chances for
precipitation are expected. A breezy southerly wind may be found
across eastern areas through the day, with winds becoming
northerly as the low moves through from west to east. Of note,
these southerly winds in the east then becoming northerly cold
bring some areas of wild fire smoke to eastern North Dakota
Thursday evening through at least Thursday night. Lows Thursday
night will be cooler in the west and north, yet remain near 70
south central and southeast.

Although the most dangerous heat is behind us, hot temperatures will
continue into this weekend. On Friday and Saturday, high
temperatures are forecasted to follow a north-south gradient: In the
far northern part of North Dakota, high temperatures will remain in
the low to mid 80s, while in the south, they will reach the mid to
upper 90s. The highest temperatures are expected to be concentrated
in the southwest part of the state.

Precipitation chances will be very low through the day Friday, with
isolated chances into the overnight period across far west North
Dakota. These isolated chances will remain from Saturday morning to
afternoon, still remaining constrained to the far western part of
the State. By the late evening and into Sunday, NBM guidance is
showing higher chances (30-50%) of scattered thunderstorms moving
from west to east across North Dakota with a surface-based shortwave
providing required forcing. Despite sufficient shear, low surface
based CAPE (<1000 J/kg) across the western two-thirds of ND will
hinder severe storm development. If they form, the more intense of
these thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the eastern third of
the state, where CAPE values are more moderate.

Temperatures will remain hot on Sunday. The cooler air expected from
the aforementioned surface-based shortwave will lag behind it by
about a day. In the north, highs will reach the upper 80s and lower
90s. Locations by and southwest of the Missouri River will see the
highest temperatures in the upper 90s. Additionally, maximum wet-
bulb global temperatures are moderate to high across the state on
Sunday. From Monday into the end of the forecast period, strong
ensemble support indicates we will finally see a cool-down, with
high temperatures dipping down back to average (or possibly just
below average). Precipitation for this time period remains
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A few showers may be found early this afternoon in the north.
Overall look for VFR conditions today through this evening, with
some breezy easterly winds. Tonight, a few showers and
thunderstorms may return across the north, mainly north of
Highway 2. Some FEW to SCT MVFR ceilings may also be found in
the north tonight into Thursday morning. Confidence in this
impacting TAF sites is low, although is currently included in
the KXWA TAF. Elsewhere should see VFR conditions tonight into
Thursday morning. Breezy easterly winds will become southerly in
the central and east, while changing to the north across western
portions by the end of Thursday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-
057>062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin/CSD
AVIATION...Anglin