919
FXUS63 KBIS 241449
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
949 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening. Expected hazards include hail up to
  golf ball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph, with a tornado
  or two possible.

- Smoke from distant wildfires will make skies hazy and may bring
  reduced surface visibility today.

- Very hot conditions will return through the weekend, with
  dangerous heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees expected
  this weekend.

- The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions will create
  near-critical fire weather conditions today and again on
  Sunday, mainly in southwestern and some south central
  portions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Low level stratus that had developed earlier this morning over
much of the south central, including the James River Valley, is
rapidly eroding. Therefore, morning stratus shouldn`t have any
impact on high temperatures today, as well as severe weather
potential. Another thing is smoke. Yesterday`s highs wound up
about five degrees short across much of the area due to thick
elevated smoke. Despite both the HRRR and RAP Smoke models
suggesting similar concentrations, smoke doesn`t appear as thick
this morning on Geocolor satellite, on various webcams, and
visually at the office. Therefore, unsure if there will be
enough smoke to inhibit temperatures in a meaningful way today.
If not, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely this
afternoon. If so, things are a bit more questionable across the
CWA.

UPDATE
Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Low clouds, mist, and patchy fog continue to be found across the
southcentral and southeast. This low level moisture has become
quite robust, although fog reports have been limited. Maintained
patchy fog and low clouds through at least mid morning.
Otherwise, morning thunderstorms have mostly remained in souther
Canada. A few thunderstorms are currently in Montana along the
surface trough and warm front. Perhaps these move into
northwestern ND this morning as the mentioned trough moves
eastward and MUCAPE remains modest. Wind would be the main
threat with any thunderstorm that develops this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Increased low level moisture will bring low clouds and perhaps
some patchy fog across south central and southeastern portions
this morning. Surface trough with broad ridging aloft will
bring a few different weather impacts today. To start, SPC has
maintained the Slight Risk for much of central and eastern ND,
while expanded the Marginal Risk into most of the state except
the southwest. Overall the setup remains similar to previous
discussions. Surface trough will move through today, with a weak
cold front replacing a weak warm front this afternoon and
evening. Modest instability and shear will be found along these
fronts bringing all hazards of severe weather possible, if a
stout cap can be broken. The likely main threat will be wind.
Inverted V soundings, high DCAPE values, and modest to high 0 to
3 KM shear all indicate winds of 70 mph possible, with perhaps
higher winds depending on what storm mode develops. Current
thinking is storms are multi cluster today, with a brief window
for supercells. Any supercells could bring large hail to golf
ball in size. SPC has introduced an intensity level 1 for hail
in the slight risk area, indicating hail 2 inches or greater is
possible. This would be very conditional on rotating supercells
and timing of the higher shear influencing these. This higher
shear may be delayed to behind the surface trough, thus kept
with golf ball sized hail for today. A tornado or two also
remains possible although are still conditional on a surface
based supercell storm mode and some interactions with either
storms or remnant boundaries from this mornings convection if
any. STP values around 1 are also found for a limited time this
afternoon. Thus will maintain mention of a tornado or two
possible, although chances still remain low. Timing wise, some
thunderstorms are currently along the cold front in southern
Canada. These thunderstorms could clip northern ND this morning,
although should remain elevated. As this front and surface
trough moves through this afternoon and evening, look for better
chances of severe weather in central and eastern ND especially
in the more moisture rich areas from this morning. This is again
assuming the cap can be broken today. The initial thunderstorms
should push eastward by early to mid evening. Some CAMs have
isolated severe thunderstorms redeveloping along the stalled
boundary later this evening into the early overnight hours.
Although instability along this boundary lowers, shear will
remain high. Chances for this redevelopment appear low at this
time, although any sort of low level jet could be enough to
overcome the lower lift along the stalled boundary thus have
placed in some slight PoPs for this.

The next areas of concern for today are hot temperatures and
the potential for near critical fire weather conditions. Warm
front moving through will bring warming temperatures forecast in
the 90s to lower 100s for much of the state today. However,
HRRR smoke showing abundant wildfire smoke both aloft and at the
surface moving in by this afternoon and lingering through
tonight. Local research suggests abundant vertically integrated
smoke could impact temperatures 5 to 10 degrees. Forecast HRRR
Vertically Integrated Smoke values today appear to be modest yet
may impact high temperatures, thus have lowered them a few
degrees from the NBM. This lowering also lowers apparent
temperatures today enough to create uncertainty on heat products
for today. Thus will hold off, although some south central
areas will get close to heat index values near 100 degrees.
These hot and dry conditions, combined with increased westerly
winds from the mentioned front could bring some near critical
fire weather conditions to southwestern and south central
portions this afternoon and evening. The number of hours of
these near critical conditions combined with reported partially
green fuels has cause to hold off on any fire weather products
as well for today.

This weekend, hot temperatures and dangerous heat remains the
biggest concern. Stalled front lifts back north Saturday, while
the upper level ridge also looks to rebound slightly. This could
be the hottest day of the weekend, although may depend on how
much wildfire smoke lingers across the area. Widespread
temperatures forecast in the 100s could lead to dangerous heat
index values also in the 100s. Still appears to be a dryer heat
compared to last weekend, although could still at least hit
advisory levels. Although confidence is increasing in a heat
product for this weekend, would still like to see how smoke
impacts temperatures today, which could play out similar this
weekend. Even so, those with outdoor plans will want to use
caution given the elevated potential for dangerous heat this
weekend. Weak instability, surface low, and the mentioned
boundary could bring afternoon and evening thunderstorms each
day this weekend. An isolated severe storm is possible as well
each day, although severe chances look to be higher to our south
on Saturday, and to our east on Sunday. Light winds on Saturday
should limit the fire weather threat, although RH values will be
in the teens and 20s. Low RH values and perhaps some increased
westerly winds are forecast for Sunday, bringing near critical
fire weather conditions possible for southwestern portions
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Early to mid next week, upper level ridge looks to linger across
the central US bringing a similar pattern of hot and generally
dry conditions. Any weak disturbances or flattening of this
ridge could bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms,
although current forecast has generally low PoPs. The dry nature
of this ridge could limit the heat risk despite forecast highs
in the 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures at night will also be
mild and generally in the 60s. Fire weather conditions will also
greatly depend on any days with increased winds, with the
current forecast showing generally light winds to start next
week. Overall look for well above normal temperatures to
continue next week with low chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Some lower clouds and patchy fog will linger this morning
across portions of south central and southeastern ND, with VFR
conditions expected elsewhere. For now expect these lower
clouds to be confined from the KBIS to the KJMS area and
southward, with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible through this
morning. Generally VFR conditions are then expected for for the
rest of today. Wildfire smoke could bring FEW to SCT cloud
appearance aloft, while reduced visibilities at the surface are
also expected today through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
may also return today through tonight. For now confidence was
only high enough to include PROB30 groups at KBIS and KJMS. A
breezy westerly wind is also expected today, becoming light and
variable tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin