686
FXUS63 KBIS 080008
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
708 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon. A few storms could be severe.

- Windy on Tuesday, with near-critical to critical fire weather
  conditions across southwest and south central North Dakota.

- Unseasonably warm and humid today, then cooler Tuesday and
  Wednesday. A brief warm up on Thursday could be followed by
  much cooler temperatures next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A pseudo dry line continues to push eastward near the Highway
83 corridor. There is a super cell out front of the pseudo dry
line that has produced a tornado already continues to push
eastward into a favorable environment for tornado genesis the
next couple of hours. This has has been the only storm able to
break the cap and go severe. There is another cell west of Minot
that is currently stuck behind it`s outflow which has kept the
storm subsevere for now. Cells continue to try to go up along
the pseudo dryline however this mornings cloud cover and cooler
temperatures has really restabilize much atmosphere upwind of
these causing this strong CAP. If other storms get established
there is plenty low level SRH across the central half of the
state that could lead to another spin up and there is plenty of
CAPE and shear to sustain supercells.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A dynamic system continues impacting the forecast area. Currently,
surface low is located over eastern Montana/southwestern North
Dakota, while upper low is primarily over north central Montana
propagating into south central Canada. For the most part,
thunderstorms from earlier today have exited the CWA. However,
another severe weather threat persists this afternoon, and seems
especially focused along and west of Highway 83 where skies
cleared out quicker in the day. RAP analysis suggests a narrow
corridor of enhanced instability this afternoon that will be
collocated with 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear. Wherever this
ultimately sets up would be the primary focus for severe
weather. With bulk shear vectors generally perpendicular to the
frontal boundary off the surface low, supercells are possible
that could lead to large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, especially near the surface low.

By this evening, any remaining instability should rapidly decrease
as dry air moves in, while CIN increases. Thus any severe weather
threat should also diminish as the sun sets. After which, a few
showers are possible mainly in the north on Tuesday, with additional
rain chances overnight. Gusty westerly winds will develop Tuesday
as the surface low lifts northeast, especially in the northern
half of the state. Though pressure rises and CAA advection
aren`t the strongest, there was enough confidence to issue a
Wind Advisory for most counties north of I94.

For Tuesday, the strongest winds are not collocated with the
driest air. Still, critical fire weather conditions are
possible in the far southwest. In addition, near critical
conditions are expected in the remainder of the southwest and
south central. Drier conditions and breezy winds could once
again produce near critical to critical fire weather conditions
across much of the southwest and south central on Thursday.

Beyond Tuesday, mostly dry conditions are favored through the
remainder of the workweek. After which, widespread
precipitation chances return Sunday and into early next week.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be seasonable before
another brief warm-up Thursday. A cooling trend is then expected
this weekend and into early next week with highs possibly in
the upper 50s and 60s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue across the area with a thunderstorm
forecast to move into the Minot area could cause temporary
visibility reductions. Winds will shift from the south to
westerly east of highway 83 tonight. Winds will remain out of
the west areas west of HWY 83.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>019-022-023-025-
055>058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Johnson