400
FXUS63 KBIS 170004
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
704 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain across much of western and north central North Dakota
  through tonight.

- Areas of dense fog from the Turtle Mountains through the James
  River Valley this evening, improving later tonight.

- Windy conditions expected Friday, Saturday, and Monday.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the middle of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Most of the forecast adjustments for this update were to align the
near term period with observed trends. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible across north central North Dakota this evening.
Areas from the Turtle Mountains through much of the James River
Valley have seen periods of dense fog since late afternoon, but
not persistently at any given location. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued to address this. The fog should clear
from south to north with the passage of a warm front this
evening into tonight.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

An upper level low over the eastern Wyoming continues to
progress toward North Dakota. Precipitation continues to move
northward across the western half of the state and should
continue to expand this afternoon and tonight. The NBM still has
high probabilities for over an inch of rain across the Montana
and North Dakota border. The surface low is in the vicinity of
the south central while the warm front extends up from Wishek to
Lamoure into the southeast. Thus, temperatures have warmed into
the mid 60s to 70s in the southern James River Valley. There is
some lingering patchy fog across the Devils Lake Basin, but is
forecast to move out of the region as the dry slot beginning to
infiltrate southcentral into northeastern North Dakota. The
remainder of the state has been in the upper 40s to lower 50s
due to the overcast low stratus. The upper low is forecast to
pass over North Dakota late tonight with the bulk of the wrap
around precipitation remaining out west. Overnight low
temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to 40s as lingering
cloud cover remains. There could be some patchy fog lingering
across the North tonight into early tomorrow morning. Rain will
be moving out of the north tomorrow morning as well.

As the upper level low moves out of the area tonight a tight
surface pressure gradient and increasing heights will result
in windy conditions Friday and Saturday. Skies should begin to
clear out tomorrow afternoon. Warm westerly winds and clearing
skies will help high temperatures to warm back into the mid 50
to lower 60s tomorrow afternoon. Another trough will pass
Saturday leading to windy conditions across the state. Winds are
forecast to range around 20-25 mph. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 50s Saturday and the 60s Sunday. The
warmer temperatures Sunday are from an upper level ridge
building out west. Dry conditions will continue this weekend.
This upper level ridge will move quickly through the area with
another trough following the wake of the ridge by Monday. There
could be a quick hitting system rolling through the region.
Monday could be another windy day as front rolls through the
area with decent pressure rises. After Monday the upper level
pattern is forecast to transition to quasi-zonal with a drier
conditions likely by the end of the week. Next week looks to
remain above normal with increasing temperatures by the end of
the week. There could be another quick moving trough by the
middle of the week but some of the ensemble solutions are not in
agreement for this system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Rain reducing visibility to MVFR/IFR levels will continue across
western and far north central North Dakota this evening, lifting to
the northeast later tonight into Friday morning. A few thunderstorms
are possible to the northwest of KMOT early this evening. Areas to
the south and east of the more persistent rain could see drizzle and
areas of fog this evening with MVFR to LIFR visibility restrictions,
but conditions should improve from south to north through the night.

Ceilings across northern North Dakota are likely to remain at LIFR
levels this evening, improving to IFR later tonight, MVFR Friday
morning, and VFR Friday afternoon. Ceilings across southern North
Dakota will be less consistent, but categorical restrictions are
likely through the night. Much of southwest North Dakota should see
MVFR to IFR ceilings through tonight, improving to VFR Friday
morning. South central North Dakota is more likely to see varying
periods of IFR, MVFR, and VFR through tonight, with slightly higher
confidence in a few hours of prevailing MVFR from KBIS to KJMS
Friday morning.

Varying wind directions are expected through the evening, with
speeds mostly around 10 kts. By Friday morning, most areas should
see northwest to southwest winds around 10-15 kts, increasing to 15-
20 kts and gusting to 25-30 kts Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Hollan