


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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712 FXUS63 KBIS 061935 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are expected in western and north central North Dakota tonight. - Dry with below average temperatures continue for the first half of the week, with highs mostly in the 50s. A slight warm- up with highs in the 60s and 70s is then anticipated to close out the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Near zonal to northwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains today. With high pressure moving across the region, clear and dry weather is anticipated today. With a moderate pressure gradient draped across northwestern North Dakota, moderately west winds with speeds up to 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH are expected in our northern counties today. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures, broadly in the 50s to lower 60s, is anticipated this afternoon. With clear skies and relatively weak winds tonight, another round of freezing temperatures is anticipated over the northern and portions of southwestern North Dakota through Tuesday morning, dropping as low as 28. Lows in south central North Dakota are expected to remain in the mid to upper 30s during this period. Thus, a Freeze Warning has been issued for western and north central North Dakota from midnight through 10 AM CDT tonight. A transient upper level ridge passing through the northern Plains late Tuesday and Wednesday will promote a slight warmup for the later half of the week, with highs broadly forecast in the 60s and 70s Wednesday through Sunday. Mainly dry conditions are also anticipated through late Friday. A transition to southwesterly flow over the northern Plains is then anticipated this weekend the the transient upper level ridge moves into the Great Lakes Region. With an upper level low ejecting a number of shortwaves into the region, the ensemble advertises low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain this weekend. A large majority of ensemble members have settled on this scenario, though a minority cluster (15 percent of members) still exists that keeps western and central North Dakota fairly dry as a strong Atlantic low greatly slows down the eastward displacement of the upper level ridge. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR ceilings and visibility is anticipated at all terminals throughout the 18Z TAF period. Gusts west to southwest winds, with speeds up to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots, is anticipated across the north this afternoon. Winds are then expected to diminish this evening, becoming light and variable in direction overnight. Winds will then strengthen and reorganize out of the south southeast late Tuesday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>034- 040>044. && $$ DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam