013
FXUS63 KBIS 160624
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
124 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot conditions will continue across southern North Dakota
  through Thursday, with afternoon heat index values as high as
  100, high temperatures around 95 to 100, and low temperatures
  around 65 to 70.

- Temperatures are favored to remain above normal for most areas
  through the weekend, with cooler conditions arriving early
  next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
  possible across northern North Dakota into early Thursday
  morning. The threat for severe weather is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Isolated showers have developed as far south as Lake Sakakawea
and the Highway 200 corridor. Have adjusted PoPs through the
rest of the night to account for this. A more persistent light
rain continues to fall over the northwest corner of the state.
And thus far, all thunderstorms have remained north of the
border.

UPDATE
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Showers continue to expand across the northwest tonight.
Precipitation will mainly stay confined to the International
border as the ridge lift precipitation into southern Canada.
There could be some stronger storms on the Canadian side early
in the morning hours. The CAMs have strong storms developing
around 12Z in southern Manitoba staying north of the county
warning area as they move southeast. Updated PoPs to catch the
wave lifting across our area.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

There is an area of high based showers moving over northwestern
North Dakota. The CAMS have pulled back on precip with only a
small area along the International Border as the ridge
builds over the Plains. No updates are needed at this time as
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Ridge of high pressure will remain over the region tonight,
shifting slightly southeastward for Thursday. Hot temperatures
will remain as a result. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to lower
70s will offer limited relief, while highs back in the 90s to
near 100 degrees return for Thursday. A slight increase in
humidity may also be found for Thursday, keeping apparent
temperatures near 100 degrees. Although Thursday`s more
impactful Heat Risk may be more central and eastern locations,
will maintain the Heat Advisory as is for tonight through
Thursday evening. Developing low in Wyoming will bring a
boundary across the north tonight brining more chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to remain modest through
tonight, although instability looks more limited tonight. Thus
the threat for severe weather remains low through tonight. There
are some CAMs that bring a few thunderstorms across south
central portions including the James River Valley this evening.
These areas are starting to see a CU field develop, and have
modest uncapped instability currently. Shear in these areas are
also modest. The limiting factors are skinny CAPE profiles,
limited lift, and overall dry soundings. Thus confidence was
only high enough to add 10 percent chances for this afternoon
and evening. Surface low moves across the region on Thursday
through Thursday night, although limited chances for
precipitation are expected. A breezy southerly wind may be found
across eastern areas through the day, with winds becoming
northerly as the low moves through from west to east. Of note,
these southerly winds in the east then becoming northerly cold
bring some areas of wild fire smoke to eastern North Dakota
Thursday evening through at least Thursday night. Lows Thursday
night will be cooler in the west and north, yet remain near 70
south central and southeast.

Although the most dangerous heat is behind us, hot temperatures will
continue into this weekend. On Friday and Saturday, high
temperatures are forecasted to follow a north-south gradient: In the
far northern part of North Dakota, high temperatures will remain in
the low to mid 80s, while in the south, they will reach the mid to
upper 90s. The highest temperatures are expected to be concentrated
in the southwest part of the state.

Precipitation chances will be very low through the day Friday, with
isolated chances into the overnight period across far west North
Dakota. These isolated chances will remain from Saturday morning to
afternoon, still remaining constrained to the far western part of
the State. By the late evening and into Sunday, NBM guidance is
showing higher chances (30-50%) of scattered thunderstorms moving
from west to east across North Dakota with a surface-based shortwave
providing required forcing. Despite sufficient shear, low surface
based CAPE (<1000 J/kg) across the western two-thirds of ND will
hinder severe storm development. If they form, the more intense of
these thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the eastern third of
the state, where CAPE values are more moderate.

Temperatures will remain hot on Sunday. The cooler air expected from
the aforementioned surface-based shortwave will lag behind it by
about a day. In the north, highs will reach the upper 80s and lower
90s. Locations by and southwest of the Missouri River will see the
highest temperatures in the upper 90s. Additionally, maximum wet-
bulb global temperatures are moderate to high across the state on
Sunday. From Monday into the end of the forecast period, strong
ensemble support indicates we will finally see a cool-down, with
high temperatures dipping down back to average (or possibly just
below average). Precipitation for this time period remains
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are possible across northern
North Dakota tonight into Thursday morning. Sub-VFR conditions
are unlikely with this activity. Then later Thursday afternoon
and evening, there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorms
developing from northeast to south central North Dakota. The
probability of this is too low to mention in the KBIS or KJMS
TAFs at this time. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period. Wind direction will vary over
space and time, but will generally turn from southeasterly to
northerly on Thursday. Wind speeds should mostly remain around
5-15 kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-
057>062.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin/CSD
AVIATION...Hollan