501
FXUS63 KBIS 120254
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler this weekend, before slowly warming next week.

- High chances (60-90%) for rain Sunday night through Monday.

- Windy weekend, continuing into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows zonal flow across the Northern Plains
with varying cloud thickness and height. There are lower and
thicker cloud decks creeping into the southwest corner of the
state. Radar has started to pick these clouds up. This can
bring a stray and very brief shower, but confidence is low (less
than 5-10%) if any rain reaches the ground.

UPDATE
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Current MRMS shows a band of light rain showers moving across
the north central portion of the state. Minot Airport has
recorded a Trace so far. Showers will continue to move east and
slowly dissipate in the next 2-3 hours. Winds have already
peaked in speed for the day and they will also start to wind
down for the remainder of the evening.

Main forecast is on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The Northern Plains are mostly dominated by zonal flow, with a
small shortwave embedded over Montana currently. A large upper
level low system sits near Vancouver. At the surface the
previous cold front has now made it all the way through North
Dakota, so temperatures across western and central North Dakota
are only in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A surface low pressure
sits in east central South Dakota, with a pressure gradient
affecting the eastern half of North Dakota, where winds are
gusting around 20 mph. That upper level shortwave has created a
narrow band of rain showers laid across eastern Montana, on an
eastern track. The NBM has very little PoPs for these showers in
North Dakota, so we had to manually add those in. These showers
should track across northern North Dakota and slowly dissipate
this evening.

As this zonal flow continues into the weekend, the below normal
cooler temperatures will too. Tonight expect lows in the 40s
again, then highs Saturday in the low to mid 60s. This trend
will continue for Sunday as well. Saturday will be windy across
the eastern half of the state as the surface low slides into
western Minnesota, producing a strong pressure gradient across
North Dakota. Northwest winds 15 to 30 mph are forecast.

Heading into Sunday and Monday that upper level low will slide
into Montana, creating strong southwest flow over the Northern
Rockies. This will create a surface low pressure that moves into
the Dakotas, producing widespread rain Sunday night through
Monday. With this surface pressure, another strong pressure
gradient will occur. Sunday winds will be the strongest across
the southwest where southeast winds 25 to 40 mph are forecast.
Monday will be slightly windier with a frontal passage. Current
NBM forecast winds across the west are 30 to 50mph, lower east.
We will keep an eye on this for a possible Wind Advisory or
Warning. The backside of this system will allow slightly warmer
850mb temperatures to come back north, warming our temperatures
back into the mid 70s by the end of next week along with low
chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions for majority of the forecast period with possible
MVFR for the north central terminals from light showers, moving
east. These light showers will dissipate by 02Z-03Z tonight.
Ceilings will lower by tomorrow, but still be VFR. Winds this
evening will be 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25-30kts and then
coming down to 10 to 15 kts with gust up to around 20kts for
the remainder of the forecast period. Areas north and east will
see stronger winds speeds 10 to 20 kts and gusts to 25 kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KJS
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...KJS