791
FXUS63 KBIS 020533
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible far south overnight. A
  stronger can not be completely ruled out.

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for thunderstorms Wednesday
  night through Thursday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe
  storms are possible in the west Wednesday night and over much
  of the west and central Thursday.

- Medium chances (40 to 70 percent) chances for showers and
  thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday night. A few
  thunderstorms could be strong to severe with locally heavy
  rainfall. Then low chances for showers and non-severe
  thunderstorms through the rest of the Holiday weekend.

- Warming trend Wednesday and Thursday, with increasing humidity
  and temperatures in the 90s. Then a cooling trend Friday
  through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Low level jet is still kicking off storms in the far south. They
are forming on the South Dakota border and moving south. Severe
storms are not expected in North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Activity has held south of the border over the southern end of
our area, but with a modest low level jet kicking in later
tonight and some high-res models indicating some possible
convection developing, will keep low chances in the forecast
through the overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

So far convective activity over the south has remained over
northwest South Dakota, but as the evening goes on a few storms
still could make their way into our area, especially later on
with the increasing low level jet. Around the Turtle Mountains,
again the convection has held out of our area and formed just to
the east, though the potential remains for a few more hours of a
storm moving through there.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Currently skies were sunny across western and central ND with
temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 80s. A few clouds
were noted from the Turtle Mountains into eastern ND. Farther
west, clouds were noted from around Miles City west to Hysham in
eastern Montana, with congested cu noted on Satellite. Current
winds ranged from northwest over eastern ND to southerly over
the west, and light and variable in between.

The congested cu over southeast is of some concern this
afternoon and early evening. The atmosphere continues to
destabilize over far southwest ND. MLCape values are 500-1000
J/KG with around 35 knots of effective shear. As you go west
into Montana, the dewpoints drop into the lower 50s, but
currently we are seeing some mid 50s from Dickinson to
Hettinger, but still capped. CAMs have been consistent today in
keeping any convection just west and south of the far southwest
corner of the state. It`s possible we could see a cell or two
sneak into the state, but think convection for the most part,
should stay south.

Later tonight, we see the low level jet strengthen over South
Dakota and into far southern North Dakota. It`s possible we
could see a stronger or possibly even a marginally severe
elevated thunderstorm along our far southern counties. Hail to
the size of quarters would be the main hazard. Again, it appears
that South Dakota would be favored for possible severe
convection, over southern ND. Will need to monitor. Overall,
severe chances late this afternoon and tonight appear to be very
low.

Wednesday is expected to be dry with an increasing southerly
flow, bringing increasing moisture into the forecast area. Highs
should climb into the 80s area wide, with some lower 90s in the
far west. Upper level ridging should be maximized over western
ND Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. However,
southwest upper flow over western and central MT will probably
fire convection that could push through eastern MT and possibly
into western ND later Wednesday evening. SPC has a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe storms in western ND. Gusty winds to
60 mph would be the most likely hazard with these storms if they
were able to make it int western ND.

Thursday and Friday we remain within a broad southwest upper
flow with a warm and moist airmass remaining over the region.
Low pressure develops in the northern and central High Plains
Thursday and pushes east into the Plains Friday. There will
certainly be ingredients for strong to possibly severe storms,
as well as for heavy rainfall. However there remains a lot of
uncertainty in how things will play out. Currently, SPC has a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (level 1 of 5) over
western and much of central ND on Thursday. WPC is highlighting
a good portion of western and central with a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday as well. The
threat for severe weather on Friday should slide farther east,
with mainly eastern portions of the state favored for strong to
severe storms. the CSU ML page is hinting at a marginal risk
for severe storms over south central into eastern ND. This will
also depend on how things evolve on Thursday as well. As we
head through the weekend we see a a weak upper level flow with a
couple of waves moving through the area. We should see
temperatures trend a bit lower, with occasional showers and
thunderstorms remaining in the forecast but with a low
predictability of when or where they will occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR CIGs and VIS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are
in the south central for the next few hours. Winds will be
light and easterly tonight and Wednesday morning. In the
afternoon, winds could gust around 12kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Smith