293
FXUS63 KBIS 192331
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
631 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be breezy through sunset with sustained west winds up
  to 30 mph.

- Isolated to scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms,
  possible in the north before sunset.

- A cooling trend is forecast this weekend into early next week.
  Some areas of frost are possible Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

With the surface low continuing to move east, the chances for
showers and thunderstorms are now limited to the northern
counties. They will mostly be rain showers as there is very
little instability. By sunset these should mostly be gone, along
with the breezy winds. PoPs were updated to reflect this trend.
Skies will also clear overnight and into Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level low will continue to push across the state through
this evening. The gradient from this low is lingering breezy to
windy conditions across the CWA. Currently, sites in the Wind
Advisory are still hitting criteria via sustained, gusts, or
both. Thus have extended the Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT / 7 PM
MDT. This low will also continue chances for showers and perhaps
a few isolated thunderstorms until about sunset this evening.
Clouds and wind then go on a diminishing trend overnight
tonight as a surface high move to our south. Low temperatures
tonight will cool somewhat and generally be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s. Surface high will move eastward on Friday, switching
the flow to southerly at the surface yet not as breezy as recent
days. This southerly flow and developing surface low in MT could
set up a weak warm front for Friday, warming temperatures back
into the mid 70s to perhaps mid 80s. Mainly dry conditions are
expected during the day Friday. As this low moves across North
Dakota during the evening and overnight hours a few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Although shear
is abundant with this feature, instability is quite lacking.
Thus the threat for severe weather for Friday is low. A cold
front with this low will switch the winds back to northwest
Friday night and may become breezy.

Behind this mentioned front will be cooler temperatures for the
weekend. Look for highs both Saturday and Sunday to be in the
60s. A passing mainly dry wave on Saturday could bring breezy
northwest winds to much of the area. Saturday night into Sunday
morning surface high moves over the area diminishing winds and
any cloud cover from the wave. With the cooler air moving in low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s across the west
and 40s in the east. This could bring some areas of frost for
Sunday morning. This high then moves eastward for Sunday
returning south winds and continued dry conditions. Northwest
flow then looks to linger to start next week. This could
continue the cooler temperatures. Passing waves in this flow
could bring some isolated showers. Broad ridging is then
indicated for mid to perhaps late next week in the clusters. How
amplified this ridge becomes is the main area of uncertainty.
However, with the general ridging pattern look for warming
temperatures and mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR skies and visibilities through the period with a few rain
showers in the far north this evening. Winds will continue to be
breezy from the west until after sunset, then winds will be
around 10kts. Skies will also start to clear out after sunset,
leading to a clear Friday with winds nearing 20kts from the
southwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Smith