832
FXUS63 KBIS 060729
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
229 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sub-freezing temperatures over parts of western North Dakota
  this morning.

- Areas of frost throughout North Dakota late tonight into
  early Sunday morning.

- Dry until the middle of next week, then precipitation chances
  return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Current surface analysis places deep low centered over James
Bay, while high pressure stretches through Saskatchewan into the
western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places low over eastern
Ontario, with cyclonic flow stretching back into the Northern
Plains. Over our area, some clouds continue to slide through
central North Dakota on the back side of the cyclonic flow.
Otherwise, a quiet and chilly night continues, especially over
western North Dakota where lows have dipped into the upper 20s
to lower 30s in many locations, with the coldest readings of 29
degrees so far being reported at NDAWN stations near Amidon and
Tioga.

For today, cyclonic flow aloft may keep a few clouds over
eastern portions of the area, but this will come to an end
later today into this evening as ridge over the western CONUS
starts its gradual push east. Otherwise, a quiet but cool day is
on tap with highs mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which
will be about 15 degrees below average. The good part will be
the winds should be quite light with the surface high over the
region.

For tonight, surface high broadens out and spreads east with
very light if any wind expected. This will combine with the
clear skies to produce another cold night with areas of frost.

On Monday into Tuesday, upper ridge pushes east resulting in a
warming trend. Our pattern becomes more active for the middle
and end of the week as an upper low closes off over the Great
Basin region and tries to eject some waves up the back side of
the ridge before it lifts towards the northeast, bringing
precipitation chances to our area.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>021-031>034-040>044.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ003-004-011-012-022-035-045-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS