679
FXUS63 KBIS 220545
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing temperatures and mainly dry conditions expected
  through Thursday.

- Very hot conditions expected to return Friday through the
  weekend, with high temperatures and heat index values
  potentially above 100 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Limited updates needed at this time. Some mid to high level
clouds will move through the area through the night with lows in
the 50s. Overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 949 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

No significant changes for the late evening update. Made some
minor changes to sky cover as models are having a hard time
picking up the mid-high level clouds. A sprinkle/shower can`t
be completely ruled out overnight, especially in the far
southwest, but too much uncertainty to add small pops.

UPDATE
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Partly sunny skies across western and central ND early this
evening with a mix of mainly mid and high level clouds with some
smoke aloft. Some light returns noted with the mid clouds but
expect little if any precipitation is reaching the ground. Made
some minor adjustments to sky cover and did not add a mention
of pops as returns much weaker than earlier this afternoon when
we did get some ground truth with some light rain reaching the
ground.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Overall quiet weather is expected the next few days. There are some
returns in southwestern North Dakota that have produced
occasional light rain. However, showers have been dissipating
over the past hour or so and should continue to do so. Smoke is
present across much of the forecast area, though visibility
reductions are limited and mainly in the north. Neither the HRRR
nor Rap smoke models suggest high concentrations at the
surface, so believe visibility should remain greater than 6
miles most areas, most of the time.

Beyond today, a warming trend is on tap through the remainder of the
week as a west CONUS ridge amplifies and gradually slides eastward.
High temperatures could exceed 100 degrees across parts of the
state Friday through Sunday, with the warmest overall day
favored to be Saturday. Mostly dry conditions are also expected
through Thursday, after which periodic shortwaves could lead to
occasional showers and thunderstorms Friday through this
weekend. Severe weather is not out of the question with CSU
machine learning putting low severe probs into the forecast
Friday through this weekend.

Of note, models do not favor consistent direct Gulf moisture through
this weekend. Therefore, despite similarly hot ambient
temperatures, dewpoints will often remain lower than during the
past period of hot weather. As such, heat indices will likely
be less than the ambient temperature as well. Still, at least
advisory level conditions likely if trends continue as-is. While
the lack of consistent Gulf moisture doesn`t preclude the
aforementioned severe weather potential, it will likely limit
the duration (number of days) and areal coverage overall. Will
continue to monitor the latest trends over the next couple days
to see how this all evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Overall VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
With a light surface flow and some smoke around, some patchy
low lying fog can not be ruled out early Wednesday morning but
certainly not enough confidence to add to TAFs. Some mid to high
level clouds will also move through at times during the forecast
period. Generally light and variable winds are expected tonight
through much of Wednesday, becoming a light southerly wind later
in the day Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Anglin