377
FXUS63 KBIS 310955
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
355 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are possible through this morning across much of
  western and central North Dakota.

- Low to medium chances of light snow at times today through
  next week. Today through Saturday will see the greatest
  chances (~60 percent) along the Canadian border, with the
  lowest chances (~20 percent) south of Interstate 94.

- Strong northwest winds are expected Saturday night through
  Sunday, with near- steady or falling temperatures through the
  day Sunday.

- Below average temperatures with very cold wind chills to
  return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Backdoor cold front is currently moving across northern North
Dakota early this morning and will continue to push southward
this morning. Along this front have been lower clouds reports
along with fog, mist, and brief light snow. Have not seen much
evidence of freezing drizzle along this front, although it is
still possible. Most webcams currently show fog being the main
visibility reducer. Dense fog reports are still isolated, thus
will hold off on any highlights. This fog could linger through
at least the morning for much of the CWA as the front moves
southward, and possibly into the afternoon as the front stalls.
Later this morning through today, warm air advection aloft will
help seed this lower level moisture and bring chances for snow,
mainly along and north of Highway 2. An inch or so of new snow
is possible from this disturbance. Behind this mornings front
will be cooler temperatures in the single digits and teens north
to the 20s and 30s south. A breezy easterly wind may also set
up today, especially across the northwest. This combined with
snow chances could bring some blowing snow, although confidence
was not high enough to include today. Clipper system continues
to lift across the region tonight through Saturday. As a result
chances for light snow look to linger across much of the CWA.
There is a pseudo warm sector that forms before the cold front
moves in later Saturday. If precipitation can form in this area
perhaps some freezing rain may mix in. Left in a slight chance
for this, which is mainly in the west. Breezy easterly winds
could linger through Saturday across the east. Lows tonight look
to be in the single digits north and east to the teens and
lower 20s elsewhere. Warm air advection could bring 40s back to
the west on Saturday, with 20s and 30s elsewhere.

Cold front and the main upper low with this clipper system then
moves through Saturday night through Sunday. Snow chances will
be found with the passage of this front. Temperatures will
likely drop during the day Sunday after passage of this front.
The gradient produced by this low, combined with strong pressure
rises, and cold air advection could bring some strong northwest
winds Saturday night through the day Sunday. Did blend in
NBM90th given these mentioned factors. This could lead to
advisory level winds and blowing of any fresh snowfall. Sunday
night through Monday then look to be very cold with Arctic air
moving in. Very cold wind chills could lead to some cold weather
highlights and will have to be monitored going forward. Surface
high starts nudging into the area, although reinforces a stalled
front to the southern portions of this state. This stalled front
could see snow develop Sunday night through Monday as increased
moisture aloft is found from westerly flow. Perhaps some areas
see another inch of snow through the day Monday as a result.

Surface high continues to push across the area Monday night
through Tuesday, bringing continued cold weather and the
potential for more cold weather highlights. Behind this
high will be trapped lower level moisture and the potential for
warm air advection aloft from southwest flow. The result will be
more snow chances to the area through Tuesday. Mid through late
week clusters showing a broad trough pattern, while southwest
flow at least initially provides for some increased Pacific
moisture to the area. As a result NBM keeps chances for light
snow through Thursday. How much snow will depend on how much
Pacific moisture can make it northward into ND. It is of note
NBM has 20 to 50% chances for at least an inch of snow in almost
all 24 hour periods early to mid next week. This trough pattern
will also keep colder temperatures to the area through much of
next week as well with lows forecast to stay below zero at
night, and highs near to the teens above zero during the day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

A front will move through the region tonight from north to south
bringing in low level stratus and potential fog. IFR to MVFR
conditions could be present across much of northern North Dakota
late tonight, spreading into the Bismarck area by the early
morning hours due to lowering ceilings and reduced visibility.
There is some uncertainty on how widespread and dense fog will
be. Mostly cloudy skies could then linger through the day
Friday, with perhaps MVFR ceilings lingering. Some light snow is
also possible in the north, although confidence was not high
enough to include in any TAFs at this time. Winds will become
northeast tonight, then easterly on Friday. Some breezy winds
are possible in northwestern and some central areas.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin/Hollan