191
FXUS63 KBIS 262045
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
242 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog is possible across much of western and
  central North Dakota tonight through Thanksgiving morning.

- There are medium to high chances (60-80 percent) for
  accumulating snowfall (up to 4 inches) Friday and Friday
  night across portions of western and south central North
  Dakota.

- Well below average temperatures are favored for this coming
  weekend and into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as
  low as 25 below zero will be possible both Saturday night and
  Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Currently the low stratus clouds in the north central are still
hanging on, and will become more widespread through the night.
Aloft, the upper level flow is strong from the northwest as the
low pressure system became a closed low over Wisconsin today.
In the Pacific Northwest a ridge is moving on shore. At the
surface an area of lower pressure sits in Montana, with a
slightly higher pressure center over South Dakota.

Tonight, as mentioned, widespread dense fog is very possible.
Winds will remain calm overnight, letting the moisture from the
fresh snow just sit in the air. This, with the temperatures
cooling, will saturate the air fully. The CAMs are in agreement
that western and south central ND is the most confident
location for the fog. We added fog to almost the rest of central
ND where the snow fell yesterday. The timing is around sunset
to about noon MST(as of now). A Dense Fog Advisory is very
likely, we will just wait for now until it starts to form.

The rest of this week will be below average temperatures under
the northwest flow. Thursday a low pressure system moves off the
Pacific Ocean into Washington state. It then looks to combine
with a shortwave moving down from Canada over Idaho and western
Montana. This is then when models differ. Some have this
shortwave deepening only a little and others down into Kansas.
Either way a surface low pressure system will impact the Northern
Plains and produce snow Friday to Saturday morning. The heaveiest
snowfall is likely Friday afternoon and evening. Confidence
continues to increase for this and probabilities for higher amounts
are increasing. We now have a medium chance (40 to 60%) of 4 inches
of snow in the west and south central now. With a low chance (20 to
40%) of 6 inches. This event, unlike the last, seems more frontal
driven. Except it will form on the upper level front where the
frontogenesis seems stronger than at the surface front. The jet
stream will wrap around the upper low and create a max area over
southern ND. Where the jet stream max and the upper front line up,
at least 4 inches of snow is very possible. The cutoff for the
higher amounts is basically the river in the northwest, over to
southern Ward County and down through Kidder County. Areas north and
east of that line will likely see 1 to 2 inches as of now. One
possible limiting factor is the lapse rates are only around 6 C/km.
Lapse rates dropping quickily north of that diagonal line.

On the backside of the system, temperatures will cool even more
with cold air wrapping into the low. Highs will be in the teens
Sunday. Sunday and Monday morning lows will be below zero with
wind chills of negative 25 possible. Next week, strong northwest
flow will continue but the ridge axis will be close to North
Dakota so temperatures should be in the 20s. Up stream into
Montana zonal flow could create more chances of snow off the
mountians mid week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR to scattered MVFR this afternoon. Currently patchy to areas
of fog continue in the northwest and north central. Tonight the
fog will become much more widespread with IFR to LIFR CIGs and
VIS. Winds will mostly be northwesterly and light.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith