627
FXUS63 KBIS 102058
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
358 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
  afternoon across portions of southwestern and south central
  North Dakota.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday across
  western and portions of central North Dakota. Therefore, a Red
  Flag Warning is in effect tomorrow afternoon through the early
  evening.

- Temperatures will continue warming through Saturday, turning
  colder Sunday with widespread medium to high chances for rain
  Sunday and Monday. Some snow may mix in Sunday night into
  Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

An upper level ridge continues to move eastward reinforcing a
strong low level thermal ridge across the High Plains. The
proximity of the low level thermal ridge has brought widespread
50s and 60s across the state this afternoon. Tonight, overnight
low temperatures sit around freezing out east to the lower 40s
out west. A surface trough will move across the region tonight
switching the winds out of the northwest to southerly.

The upper level ridge will continue to move eastward centering
over the Northern Plains Friday. This will lead to the low
level thermal ridge shifting across much of eastern Montana into
western and central North Dakota. Temperatures are forecast to
climb into the 70s and even the lower 80s in the southwest. This
will lead to dry conditions across the state, read the fire
weather discussion for more information. Surface low pressure
over Saskatchewan and surface high pressure over the midwest
will lead to a north south orientated surface pressure gradient.
This will result in the formation of a low level jet at around
around 20 to 30 kts at 850 mb. Thus, ushering in windy
conditions out of the south Friday afternoon. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast to increase to the lower 40s.

Saturday, zonal flow will return to the region as an upper level
low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will result in a
surface trough passing through the region switching the winds to
northerly in the morning to northeasterly by the afternoon. A
cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region. High
temperatures are forecast to warm in the 60s across the state.
Overnight lows, are forecast to drop down into the upper 30s to
lower 40s. A system will move into the region Saturday night as
the upper level low moves into the Northern Rockies. This low
pressure system will bring wide spread precipitation into the
region. The west and north central is favored for the highest
qpf. There is a 40 percent chance of 0.5 inches of rain across
the north central and northwest. There is a chance of a rain
snow mix on the backside of the low. Winds are forecast to
increase this Sunday as the low pressure system moves through
the area. The strongest winds are forecast to be across the
southwest Sunday and the James River Valley Monday.

Sunday and Monday high temperatures are forecast to sit in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will begin trend warmer
by the middle of the week with a precipitation chances returning
by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

VFR conditions continue across the state as gusty northwesterly
winds are expected this afternoon. Winds are forecast to shift
later tonight out of the south with windy conditions returning
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon
due to dry and windy conditions. Minimum relative humidity is
forecast to drop down to around 12 percent in the southwest to
around 17 to 20 percent from Renville down to McIntosh county.
The strongest winds are forecast to by in the central portion of
the state with sustain winds from the south around 20 to 25 mph
and gusts up to 35 mph. The southwest will see the lowest
minimum relative humidity however their winds may remain around
15 to 20 mph. Any initial attack fires will rapidly spread and
become difficult to suppress. The rate of spread should be the
highest in the afternoon as winds are forecast to be the
strongest from 12 pm to 6 pm CDT shifting west to east by the
evening. Luckily fair overnight recoveries are forecast across
the state Friday night with a wind shift out of the north by
Saturday morning. Winds will remain light through Saturday with
the minimum relative humidity around 30 percent.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>003-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>047-050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson