825
FXUS63 KBIS 080008
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
708 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy tonight, very windy Sunday, and breezy Monday.

- Areas of smoke mainly for the western half of North Dakota
  through tonight.

- Showers likely north and east Sunday afternoon through Sunday
  evening, with a few thunderstorms possible mainly southeast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have generally exited the forecast
area. However, isolated returns are entering parts of western
North Dakota. These are likely producing mostly virga, though
brief light rain may reach the surface along with enhanced
winds (on top of already windy conditions). Otherwise,
visibility has begun to decrease from near-surface smoke in
western and far north central parts of the state. This round of
near-surface smoke should end from north to south through the
night tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Currently, mid level trough/low over far south central Canada,
driving a sfc cold front southeast across the local region, now
orientated from south central ND northeast into the Turtle
Mountain region. The cold FROPA will be the focus for a period
of gusty northwest winds with the initial pressure surge, along
with shower and thunderstorm development as it continues east,
some strong to severe south central and over eastern areas of
the state. As models/CAMs advertised, we`re starting to see some
updraft development along the front as sfc based and MUCAPE has
increased. Expect further development/increase in coverage as
mid/upper level energy increases ahead of the S/WV/mid level
low.

Combination of decent CAPE (around 1000 J/KG of MU/mixed layer
CAPE), marginal 0-6km shear (20-35kts), and forcing ahead of
the mid level wave will contribute to a few stronger updrafts,
as noted with UH Plots and SREF prob severe %. As mentioned
before, mean winds are perpendicular to the front, so discrete
updrafts are anticipated initially, with a few severe storms
possible between the Missouri River in south central ND and
east across the James River valley now through early this
evening. Hodographs are mainly straight as well, leading to
more support for large hail to be the main threat with any
stronger storm initially.

Secondary line of weaker convection may develop post-frontal,
which has better shear but much less CAPE. Some higher wind may
be possible if a secondary line can form. SPC maintains a
Marginal Risk for much of south central and eastern North Dakota
through this evening, which for us will be through early
evening associated with the front and peak heating. We will
continue to monitor for storms over the next several hours.

As the mid/upper low/trough continues south-southeast into the
Northern Plains, wrap around moisture will likely contribute to
some showers across the north tonight. Breezy northwest winds
may also be found tonight, with lows in the 40s to near 50
degrees. Some smoke may also return at the surface behind this
front tonight, especially in the north and west, though models
are not in sync.

Cutoff low behind the front lingers across the area on Sunday,
and will likely result in scattered showers (perhaps an isold
storm), but moreso colder temperatures and strong northwest
winds. Looking at BUFKIT soundings, there appears a threat we
may see advisory level winds during the day Sunday, so headlines
are possible. Will hold off for now until we get through this
initial wind surge. Smoke returns/lingers at least aloft during
the day Sunday, and perhaps mix down to the surface Sunday
night into Monday. Showers and breezy northwest wind linger
across the east Sunday night into Monday, with low temperatures
in the 40s. Breezy winds shift to the east as do the chances for
showers for the remainder of Monday. Temperatures will remain
cool in the eastern half of the state, yet may warm to near
normal for the west. With the lingering northerly wind could
also bring the possibility of smoke returning to the state on
Monday. Dry conditions with diminishing winds can then be
expected for Monday night, with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Brief upper level ridging with a surface low developing will
bring mainly dry conditions during the day Tuesday. Temperatures
look to warm with highs returning into the 80s for many areas.
This developing low may bring some unsettled weather Tuesday
night, with NBM placing some chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Mid to late next week, clusters indicating the
ridge flattens and opens the door for multiple upper level waves
in west to southwest flow. At the surface, a low pressure system
in the plains could return higher amounts of moisture from the
Gulf. The overall result could be more active weather with near
normal temperatures. NBM currently has chances for showers and
thunderstorms nearly each day mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds continue across much of
the state. They should diminish some this evening, especially in
the south, but are expected to crank back up on Sunday with
sustained northwesterly winds of around 30 kts with gusts up to
45 kts. Near-surface smoke has been starting to enter western
and far north central ND. Most visibility observations are in
excess of 5 SM. However, there are a few observations, including
KDIK, which are reporting visibility of 3 to 5 SM. Smoke should
clear from north to south tonight. Rain showers, perhaps with a
few thunderstorms in the southeast, are expected Sunday
afternoon mainly for the eastern half of the state.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Telken