565
FXUS63 KBIS 170807
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
207 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly above average temperatures expected this week.

- Low to medium precipitation chances (20 to 40 percent) over
  various parts of the area Monday through Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Fog has lifted in northwest North Dakota, and is not expected to
redevelop. Current conditions and trends and latest high-
resolution ensemble data were blended into the forecast for this
update. Widespread 20 to 30 percent chances for precipitation
have been introduced across cental and southern North Dakota
Monday afternoon through Monday night. Deterministic guidance
suggests enough lift from isentropic ascent and mid level
deformation along with sufficient low level moisture should be
present to produce some very light rain, which is being
depicted by virtually every CAM. It is possible that surface
temperatures could cool to around freezing Monday night,
resulting in some potential for freezing rain/drizzle. But this
is also when the forcing/precipitation is expected to wane.
Snow does not appear to be a plausible type over this time
period given the warm thermal profiles.


UPDATE
Issued at 1014 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Main forecast issue late this evening is the ongoing fog in
northwest ND. Latest satellite does show some improvement in the
areal coverage of fog. Guidance suggests that there`s a better
probability for stratus, yet fog still hangs on over portions of
the northwest. There are quite a few areas of Divide, Williams
and McKenzie counties that are not covered in dense fog, but a
few areas of dense fog remain. Mainly in the Highway 85 corridor
from Williston to Watford City and in northern Divide county
from Crosby to Fortuna. Current SPS goes through 10:30 PM. Will
extend this for a few more hours. Most guidance also suggests
that any fog in the northwest will gradually erode from east to
west. This will give the overnight shift a little time to
evaluate again. Otherwise, no significant changes to the
remainder of the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 727 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Issued a SPS for patchy dense fog over portions of northwest
ND. Will monitor for possible advisory. Currently its the
western portions of Williams and McKenzie counties that are
mostly impacted. Eastern portions of these counties are mostly
clear, but could see fog increase through the evening. Farther
north into Divide county, low stratus continues to dissipate. As
of around 7:30 CST the most impacted area looks to be along the
Missouri River over western portions of McKenzie and Williams
Counties. This includes the Highway 85 corridor from Williston
to Watford City.

UPDATE
Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Fog looks to be finally eroding over far northwest ND. Still
some patchy fog south of the Missouri River in McKenzie county.
Will need to monitor but attim looks like we can allow SPS to
expire at 6 PM. Elsewhere, except for a band of low VFR clouds
north central into northeast ND, mainly high clouds over the
forecast area. Currently short term guidance indicates little
in the way of fog tonight. Made some minor adjustments to sky
cover based on satellite with a blend of short term guidance
through the night. Updated text products will be sent shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Current surface analysis places lee side trough to the east of
the central Rockies, with high stretching from northern
Saskatchewan southward into the Midwest. Upper level analysis
places low over Nevada, while ridge stretches from the lee of
the northern Rockies southeastward into southern plains. Over
our area, story of the day has been persistant fog lingering
over parts of northwest North Dakota, but over the past couple
of hours notable improvement has occurred, though a few dense
spots linger over parts of Divide, Williams and McKenzie
Counties.

For tonight, compact upper low over Nevada lifts over the
Rockies along the Colorado/Wyoming border, while aforementioned
lee trough pushes a bit east. This should keep a modest
east/southeast wind going over our area tonight. Although this
is not significant by any means, this may keep widespread dense fog
from re-developing over the northwest. With that said, some
patchy fog remains a concern so will keep the mention of that
through the evening and re-evaluate. Otherwise, weather remains
quiet.

On Monday, upper low pushes east eventually sliding over
Nebraska. This should be far enough south to keep most
precipitation south of our border, but do have some low
precipitation chances along our southern tier in case some
makes its way a bit further to the north. If precipitation does
develop, it should be mainly rain in the late afternoon/evening
hours, though can not rule out a few flakes later in the
evening.

On Tuesday ridge passes over the region in the wake of the
departing system while another compact low slides down along the
west coast. This should keep conditions quiet through the day
though a weak impulse sliding through brings a slight chance of
light rain Tuesday night. Flow then ends up splitting with the
aforementioned upper low, with a northern stream trough pushing
into our area bringing low precipitation chances Wednesday
night.

NBM then suggests dry weather going into next weekend with west
to northwest flow, but would not be surprised if a stray impulse
pushing through the flow could lead to a little precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Pockets of MVFR ceilings are possible across northwest and north
central ND late tonight into early Monday morning. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF period. Mainly high
clouds overnight, with lowering ceilings Monday morning, and
then some low VFR cloudiness developing through the day Monday
and into Monday evening. Look for an easterly surface flow
through the day Monday, then trending more southeast over
western ND Monday evening. Winds generally 5 to 10 mph tonight,
10 to 20 mph Monday, with some gusts up to 25 mph late morning
through mid afternoon, then diminishing to around 10 mph Monday
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH/Hollan