825
FXUS63 KBIS 081820
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1220 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably mild temperatures are expected through the weekend,
  with highs mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s, and lows in
  the upper 20s and 30s.

- Chances (50 to 80 percent) for light rain returns Saturday
  morning through early Sunday morning across southwestern and
  central North Dakota, with the highest chances across the
  James River Valley.

- Sunday will be breezy, with west to northwesterly winds of 15
  to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Morning fog has dissipated with completely clear skies over the
area. No changes needed to the forecast at this time.


UPDATE Issued at 814 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

For mid morning update main adjustment was to add fog over parts
of northwest/north central North Dakota mainly near and north of
Minot and east of the Missouri Coteau, with a few locations
indicating a quarter mile or less of visibility. Therefore,
have put out a special weather statement noting this concern.

UPDATE
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Quiet weather continues across western and central North Dakota
this morning. Analysis places high pressure over the northern
Plains, rendering clear skies and calm winds over the forecast
area. Temperatures at this time are generally from the mid 20s
to lower 30s. The forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Northwesterly flow is found over western and central North
Dakota this morning as a very modest upper ridge slides into the
northern Plains. This ridge is ridging atop a blocking upper
level low over the desert southwest, whose gradual procession
through the Great Plains will characterize the overall
conditions this coming weekend. With high pressure building into
the forecast area this afternoon, generally clear, calm, and
dry weather is anticipated. Highs today are forecast to remain
broadly in the 50s, mild for this time of year. With skies
initially remaining clear overnight, lows from the upper 20s to
around freezing are anticipated.

Overnight into Saturday morning, a stacked surface low
associated with the aforementioned blocking low aloft will begin
to move across the Great Plains. With fairly strong ensemble
agreement on a track that cuts across eastern South Dakota and
southern Minnesota as this low moves into the Great Lakes Region
by Sunday afternoon, increasing sky cover and chances for light
precipitation (50 to 80 percent) are expected to build into
southern North Dakota beginning Saturday morning, before
expanding across much of central North Dakota by Saturday
afternoon and evening as wrap around showers move over the area.
With seasonably mild temperatures, with highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s, this precipitation is anticipated to fall entirely
as rain. These chances are expected to diminish late Saturday
evening overnight into early Sunday as the low moves off to our
east. There may be a brief opportunity for a few snow flakes to
mix in with the rain during the coolest period of Sunday
morning, but this potential remains low as cloudy skies may keep
near surface temperatures generally above freezing across
eastern North Dakota. This system only really skims the forecast
area as the bulk of its energy remains further to the south and
east of us, so all together rain accumulations only up to
around a tenth of an inch are expected at most.

While the inciting surface low departs the northern Plains on
Sunday, a tight pressure gradient in its wake may promote breezy
northwest winds during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, partly
to mostly cloudy skies are expected to linger, along with dry
conditions and high temperatures forecast in the 50s.

Moving into next week, a slightly more active and chaotic flow
pattern is expected with the loss of the desert southwest`s
blocking low aloft. On Monday, a brief cool down in temperatures
is expected a weak shortwave trough passes through the southern
Canadian Prairies, with highs forecast from the lower 40s east
to the lower 50s west. With most of the energy associated with
this wave progged to pass well to our north, and a distinct lack
of moisture across the forecast area, precipitation is not
expected at this time. More mild temperatures, with highs
broadly in the upper 40s and 50s, are expected to return on
Tuesday as a progressive ridge passes through the northern
Plains, but this is expected to be rapidly pushed further east
by broad troughing approaching from the west. Chances for
precipitation are thus expected to some time Tuesday through
Wednesday, though the ensemble becomes increasingly discordant
at this point of the forecast. In any scenario, the return of
seasonably mild temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are
anticipated to limit any potential P-type problems associated
with these increased precipitation chances, with everything
expected to fall as rain. Behind this system, generally dry and
mild conditions are forecast through the end of the workweek as
flow aloft returns to being near zonal. Long term guidance is
beginning to hint at broad troughing moving into the northern
Plains as we head into next weekend, which would represent the
next opportunity for precipitation if this pattern pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Rain showers will start to move into far southern North Dakota
Saturday morning, with MVFR ceilings/visibility possible near
the South Dakota state line. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...JJS