652
FXUS63 KBIS 070715
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
115 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another area of light snow is expected to cross the state from
  west to east on Sunday, with snow accumulations from a trace
  to near 2 inches.

- A more impactful system is forecast Monday night through
  Tuesday night, which may bring a period of rain and freezing
  rain, accumulating snow (north and east), and very strong
  winds to parts of western and central North Dakota.

- Below average temperatures this weekend, above average for
  most on Monday and Tuesday, then below average favored for
  the rest of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Temperatures have plummeted well below expectations in areas
with no low clouds. This has resulted in sporadic observations
of wind chills around 30 to 35 below. Because of the isolated
nature and limited duration for these wind chills, a Cold
Weather Advisory is not expected to be needed. Temperatures
should stabilize and begin warming as the upstream warm front
begins to push in. Surface observations and satellite imagery
also indicate that fog (almost certainly in the form of ice
crystals) has developed across parts of Dunn, Stark, western
Mercer, and western Morton Counties. The ice fog should lift
prior to or near the onset of snow Sunday morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 932 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Surface high pressure building south/southeast into North Dakota
this evening, resulting in all the previous snow showers now
off to our south, and the sky trending clear to partly cloudy.
Main edit this product issuance was to sky cover. With winds
also tapering off, temperatures are primed to plummet, and have
already dropped to below zero most locations, coldest at -10 to
-15 northwest and north central. Next embedded wave will push
across the Rockies and into the region later tonight and
tomorrow, bringing a swath of light accumulating snow to most
areas Sun morning through early Sun evening.

UPDATE
Issued at 747 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Let the Winter Weather advisory expire with accumulating snow
having ended. No other modifications to the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 600 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Trimmed off several counties from the winter weather advisory
southwest and central, keeping my south central going where it
is still snowing. Surface high pressure building south into the
region will quickly end the snow over the next 1-3 hours, with
partial clearing central and east this evening. Next clipper
already on the way, with mostly cloudy conditions persisting
west and clouds increasing again central. Snow moves into
western ND between 09 and 12Z, then continues east through the
day Sunday.

Will also be monitoring for fog tonight as the sfc high builds
into the region. For now left out of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Currently a low pressure system in Nebraska is impacting the
Northern Plains with snow. In southern Canada, a high pressure
system is starting to impact far northern North Dakota. Heavy
snow was falling across western North Dakota when a
frontogenesis band set up this morning. 7 inches of snow was
reported in Center this afternoon where the band stayed for
several hours! That heavy snow band has been recently impacting
the south central. Most of the band moved through the north
side of Bismarck and dumped more snow there then where we
measure snow at the south side of the city. The Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect through this evening or until
canceled. The frontogenesis band has now moved near the South
Dakota border and should continue moving south. Skies are
breaking in the north and west with the higher pressure moving
in. The snow should fully move out by 8pm CT.

Tonight very cold air will move in with northwest flow and the
surface high pressure. Lows will drop to 15 below zero in the
north and near zero in the south. Wind Chills will be around 25
below. Sunday the train of snow systems will continue with
another low moving in and pushing the high pressure out. There
is forecast to be less QPF with this Northern Rockies low,
making snow amounts between a trace and 2 inches.

Monday much warmer air moves in as the cold air moves east.
Highs are expected to be in the 30s and near 40 in the south.
Monday night a much more dynamic Alberta Clipper moves in. We
will still be in the northwest flow, so warmer air will get
wrapped into the system. This means in the warm sector of the
system mainly rain will fall, this looks to be most of western
and southern ND. There will then be a transition zone somewhere
in central ND where freezing rain could fall with the warmer
temperatures aloft, but cooler surface temps. As of now, most of
the snow accumulation will be in the northern tier of counties,
the James River Valley, and Devils Lake basin. Northeast ND will
see much more snow. A very tight pressure gradient in the
surface low will create very strong winds in western and
southern ND. 850mb winds are forecast to be near 65kts with a
high chance of mixing down to the surface. This will likely
require a High Wind Warning, because it will be in an area of
rain not snow.

Wednesday yet another Northern Rockies low will form and impact
the Northern Plains. Another trace to 3 inches could be
possible and likely another frontogenesis setup. Temperatures
will drastically drop on the backside. There are model hints of
a very strong push of Arctic air. NBM forecast highs are in the
single digits above zero only by next weekend. Lows look to be
below zero in the entire CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

High pressure builds across North Dakota tonight, and will
result in mainly VFR conditions to start the 06Z period. Next
weather disturbance approaches later tonight and moves across
the state on Sunday, and will once again bring lower ceilings
and visibility in snow. MVFR-IFR conditions expected,
occasionally LIFR with any heavier snow shower. Winds transition
to southeasterly by Sunday morning, with a switch to more
southerly Sunday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...NH