077
FXUS63 KBIS 152310
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
610 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog is expected tonight through Thursday
  morning.

- Thursday will bring above normal highs temperatures southeast
  and below normal temperatures northwest. The rest of the will
  will bring near normal temperatures.

- Periods of rain through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
  possible mainly tonight and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Only minor changes to the going forecast. Bumped up sky cover to
get cloudy wording across the forecast area. Thunder was noted
in the past 15 minutes or so in Mercer County. Not confident in
this convection holding on for much longer. We do have a
mention of thunder, moreso for later this evening. Will monitor.
Expect mostly light rain or drizzle to increase this evening,
with heavier shower activity later this evening and overnight.
Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

An upper level trough continues to deepen across the Great Basin
placing the Northern Plains in southwesterly flow aloft. Thus
there is divergence aloft over the Plains. Water vapor imagery
shows a wave pushing into southwestern North Dakota. This wave
is currently generating thunderstorms and showers across the
southwest. This wave should slowly generate storms this
afternoon into tonight across western and central North Dakota.
Severe weather is not expected from showers or thunderstorms
tonight. Low stratus across the region is forecast to linger
through the night into tomorrow. Patchy to areas of fog are
forecast to form late tonight through tomorrow morning after the
rain.

Rain will likely move out of the area early in the morning
before another round of showers returns later in the day. The
upper level low is forecast to pass over the region tomorrow
bringing in widespread precipitation across western North
Dakota. There are around a 60-70 percent chance of an 1 inch or
rain out west from this system as wrap around precipitation
persists through most of tomorrow out west. Wrap around
precipitation will move out of the state by Friday morning. A
tight surface pressure gradient and increasing surface heights
will lead to windy conditions Friday and Saturday. Winds are
forecast to around 20 kts Friday and 25 kts Saturday.
Temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s through
the remainder of this week into next week. This weekend is
forecast to be dry as an upper level ridge if forecast to
amplify across the region. Models begin to diverge on the upper
level pattern next week, however they are consistent on high
temperatures in the 50s to 60s persisting.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

IFR to low IFR ceilings are expected to remain across the
forecast area though the 00Z TAF period. There could be periods
of MVFR cigs early in the TAF period across the north, but
otherwise expect IFR or below. Areas of rain and fog are
expected across the forecast through much of the period. Expect
widespread MVFR visibilities developing this evening in areas of
rain and fog, with areas of IFR or lower vsbys in dense fog
possible late tonight into Thursday morning. Thunder is possible
tonight and Thursday but certainties are too low at this time to
include in any one TAF. Easterly surface flow tonight 10 to
15kts becoming more northeast to north on Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH