810
FXUS63 KBIS 110535
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1135 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with a warming trend through the workweek, with
  temperatures peaking on Friday (Forecast highs lower 50s
  north to lower 60s south).

- Breezy across most of the on Tuesday, and in the east on
  Wednesday.

- Precipitation chances return Friday night into Saturday, along
  with a cooling trend through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Quiet night continues, the high clouds are slowly moving off to
the east. Much warmer night than previous nights.

UPDATE
Issued at 1007 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Quiet weather remains over the area with high clouds remaining
over much of the area, though clearing is occurring over north
central working into northwest/south central North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 638 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

High clouds continue to move over the area, and are expected to
linger through much of the evening. Otherwise, quiet weather
continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Currently, upper level ridge axis deamplifying across the
Dakotas this afternoon, in response to a S/WV trough developing
east into central Canada and other embedded impulses sliding
along the Montana/Canadian border area. Upper level clouds
continue to stream easterly across the the Northern Plains as a
moderate westerly flow and the above mentioned impulses
interact with the higher terrain of the Northern Rockies.
Recent satellite trends and some models indicate the high clouds
will trend scattered later today through tonight, as flow aloft
transitions to more northwesterly as the embedded waves
approach and pass over the Dakotas. Surface warm front moving
into western North Dakota, where temperatures have warmed well
into the 40s to lower 50s. Ahead of the front, we remain
colder, with temperatures mainly in the 30s.

As mentioned above, the embedded impulses will be steered east-
southeast across North and South Dakota tonight, with the sfc
warm front advancing east into the central Dakotas this evening,
quickly followed by a cold FROPA north to south this evening
into early tomorrow morning. Just some mid level clouds expected
with the FROPA and embedded waves, which should quickly clear
out in their wake, leading to a mostly clear sky by sunrise Tues
morning. Main notable weather change with the FROPA will be
winds becoming northwest, which look to increase during the day
Tuesday as we partially mix, with peak gusts from 20-30 knots
forecast. Outside of western ND, we expect warmer temperatures
vs. today, with forecast highs on Tue in the 40s to lower 50s.

Upper level ridge rebuilds across the western CONUS mid-week,
then develops east into the Great Plains Thursday-Friday.
Resultant weather will be continued dry weather for our region
and temperatures trending slowly warmer Wed-Thu. With the ridge
axis aloft and stronger southerly low/mid level flow on Friday,
forecast highs for the week will peak, with lower 50s north to
lower 60s south.

Pattern change commences later on Friday and into the weekend,
as a closed upper low morphs into a high amplitude trough over
the west coast Thu night, then develops into split flow over the
central CONUS for the coming weekend. Northern stream wave will
bring precipitation chances to western and central ND beginning
Friday night, along with pushing a cold front through the
region. A mix of rain and snow is expected through Sat,
depending on eventual sfc temperatures with mid level
temperatures remaining above freezing.

We remain cool with near normal temperatures for mid-November
for the latter portions of the weekend and through early next
week, along with mainly dry weather conditions as a progressive
S/WV ridge moves across the north central CONUS. A more active
pattern is then favored thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR with wind shear overnight at most terminals. Then VFR the
rest for the period. Winds will turn northwest tonight and gust
near 25knots through Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Smith