007
FXUS63 KBIS 021750
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1250 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of wildfire smoke return today, possibly lingering into
  Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures through the week, possibly warming
  to start next week.

- Windy on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Majority of the low clouds have burned off and fog has
dissipated. Visibility reduction will still continue across the
region due to near surface smoke. Smoke is forecast to linger
into tomorrow morning. Water vapor imagery shows an impulse
pushing into the northwest as scattered 15-30% chances of
showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Updated
the PoPs to match the current trends, no updates are needed at
this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 906 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

The cold front continues to progress across the southern half of
the state as it progresses southward. Low stratus is also
following the cold front. Some smoke from Canadian wildfires
will also cause slight visibility reductions this afternoon.
Patch dense fog continues across the northwest, but there have
been some areas of improvement in upstream obs. No updates are
needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Areas of fog have developed over the northwest, trying to spread
into the north central and southwest. The fog over the northwest
has been dense in a few spots, and a Special Weather Statement
has been issued to address this. Otherwise, going forecast
remains in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Current surface analysis places low over Ontario with cold front
dropping through North Dakota into northwest South Dakota.
Upper level analysis places low over the Midwest into the
eastern Great Lakes, while broad high noted over the Great Basin
into the Central Rockies. Over our area, some showers/storms
continue ahead of the front over northern Minnesota, but quiet
weather now prevails over our area.

For today into tonight, front will continue its southern/eastern
progression, with some areas of wildfire smoke pulling into the
region behind it. In the meantime, a notable upper trough drops
through central Canada before closing off over western Ontario.
A variety of weak waves wrapping around this system combined
with the aforementioned cold front may result in some showers
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder today into this evening.
This system will also usher down notably cooler air, with high
temperatures possibly not even reaching 70 degrees around the
Turtle Mountains.

On Wednesday, cooler airmass settles in, with highs of around 15
to 20 degrees below average expected over the area. Warmer air
tries to make its way in Wednesday night, but a notable cold
front then drops in on Thursday. This will result in a windy
day, with northwesterly winds possibly reaching advisory
criteria. Breezy conditions may remain through the overnight
keeping frost away, but calmer conditions are expected by Friday
night, which may bring frost concerns to the area. Warmer
airmass then tries to push its way in to start the following
week, bringing a gradual return to milder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Conditions continue to improve to VFR across the state this
afternoon. A cold front has passed through the state shifting
the winds to northerly. FU has moved in from Canadian
wildfires and has brought slight visibility reductions across
the state. A system continues to move through northwest North
Dakota which will lead to a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across the region.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS/Johnson
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Johnson