424
FXUS63 KBIS 240037
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
637 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance (30 to 60 percent) of light accumulating
  snow this weekend across the north, with chances decreasing
  towards the south. Any snow accumulations are expected to
  remain below one inch.

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend and
  through next week. The coldest period is forecast over the
  Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.

- While no major storms are forecast for next week, weather
  disturbances moving through the region will bring chances for
  light snow at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Snow has been slow to develop over the area, but expect
development to commence over the next couple of hours, primarily
over northern locations. Otherwise, besides increasing cloud
cover, forecast remains on track.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

An upper level ridge continues to move across the state this
afternoon. Ahead of the ridge is an upper level short wave with
some snow showers. The wave continues to weaken, therefore PoPs
were reduced to match the current trends. Upper level troughing
out over the Northern Rockies will push eastward today into the
Northern Plains. The upper low will remain in Canada with
majority of the lift staying north. Snow is only really forecast
north of highway 200 with majority of the accumulations being
along the International Border. The 25th to 75th total snow
accumulations remain around 1 to 2 inches along the
International Border while the remainder of the state could be
trace to one inch. This system will exit the region by tomorrow.
Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the teens north
to the lower 20s southeast. Tomorrow`s high temperatures are
forecast to be a lot like today as low clouds linger across the
region. Low stratus if forecast to move in from eastern Montana
today. Low stratus tonight could lead to patchy fog and freezing
drizzle in the James River Valley through tomorrow morning.
This could lead to light rime ice accumulations on trees and
walk ways.

The upper low over Canada will move out of the region with a
cold front following behind. This cold front will bring colder
temperatures across the state. Monday high temperatures may only
climb out into the lower teens north to 20s south. The upper
level pattern will lock into northwesterly flow as high pressure
builds out west and low pressure stalls in Great Lakes region.
This will keep our pattern relatively dry through the week with
cold air remaining lock in place. There could be a few weak
waves that come through the region resulting in light snow
throughout the week. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the
teens up north and the 20s down south. These below normal
temperatures will linger through weekend as another burst of
cold air move trough the region. This will lead to cold
temperatures persisting through Thanksgiving. Low temperatures
are forecast to drop down to 15 below north to 0 south by Friday
morning with possible wind chills down to 30 below.

The pattern begins to become more uncertain through next
weekend. If the upper level ridge shifts further east that
would result in "warmer" temperatures or if the ridge remains
locked in colder temperatures will persist. The warmer solution
has about 60 percent chance while the colder solution is around
40 percent chance. This is reflected in the NBM 25th-75th which
has over a 30 degree spreed for high temperatures early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings remain over most locations. This
is expected to continue overnight into Sunday morning, with some
improvement mid-day into the afternoon. In addition, areas of
snow will be possible over northern locations tonight, and
patchy fog across western and central North Dakota late tonight
into Sunday morning. Both of these may lead to periods of
reduced visibility.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...JJS