182
FXUS63 KBIS 150651
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1251 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain will accompany a cold front moving southeast
  across western and central North Dakota tonight.

- Precipitation chances are low this weekend. Then widespread
  20 to 30 percent chances for a mix of rain and snow through
  the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The most persistent line of rain has exited all but Dickey
County. However, a few sporadic light showers linger behind
across southwest and central North Dakota. Current conditions
and trends were blended into the forecast for this update. A
mention of patchy fog was also added to southwest North Dakota
overnight into Saturday morning, where ceilings are lowering to
the surface along higher terrain. The fog is expected to be
migratory, moving from north to south as a drier air mass pushes
in from behind.

UPDATE
Issued at 1015 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Upper level jet energy over North Dakota and to the north in
Canada is resulting in multiple areas of precipitation from
southern Saskatchewan southeast through western and central ND.
Adjusted pops again based on latest radar and short term
guidance.

UPDATE
Issued at 739 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Quick update for pops based on latest radar and short term
guidance. Band of light to moderate rain showers now extending
from southwest/south central ND into northeast ND, tracking
eastward as it drops slowly south.

UPDATE
Issued at 554 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Cold front already pushing through northwest ND with
temperatures down into the mid 30s. Rain showers, ahead of the
cold front extended from the north central through southwest ND.
Scattered showers were also located behind the cold front from
northeast MT into northwest ND. The cold front will continue to
push southeast tonight. Previous forecast had a good handle on
this so only minor tweaks to Pops and sky cover were needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Flow over the northern Plains has turned southwesterly to near
zonal this afternoon as the influence of a strong cut-off low in
the Canadian provinces passes far to the north of the forecast
area. An associated cold front is expected to pass from
northwestern to southeastern North Dakota later this afternoon,
helping to erode a significantly warm nose found aloft. Somewhat
gusty southwest to west winds have developed earlier this
morning and afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the aforementioned low/cold front, helping to mix down
these warmer temperatures. Highs today are thus expected to be
well above seasonable normals, from the upper 50s and lower 60s
north to the upper 60s and lower 70s southwest. Along and
behind the cold front, winds are anticipated to turn
northwesterly, while saturation of the lower to mid levels will
allow for some isolated to scattered precipitation (10 to 30
percent chance) to sweep from northwest to southeast early this
evening through the overnight period. Much of this is
anticipated to fall as sporadic light rain, as the saturated
column should remain fairly shallow due to dry near surface
conditions persisting. Increasing cloud cover is also
anticipated through the overnight period, helping to moderate
temperatures tonight despite the much cooler airmass sliding
into the northern Plains. Lows are forecast from the mid 20s
northwest to the mid 30s south central into the southern James
River Valley.

Northwesterly flow is then anticipated across the forecast area
through much of the weekend. Very low chances (less than 10
percent) for isolated showers are possible in the west Saturday
afternoon as a weak shortwave and attendant inverted surface
trough slides through the northern Plains, but mainly dry
conditions are anticipated through this period as high pressure
continues to move in out of Canada. Temperatures during this
period are much more seasonable, with high broadly from the
upper 30s in the far north central to the lower 50s in the far
southwest, and night time lows in the lower 20s north to lower
30s south both Saturday and Sunday. During this period, a
deepening/closed Pacific trough that will characterize the
coming workweek will make landfall in the western CONUS and
steadily move toward the Great Plains.

The northern Plains will increasingly fall under the influence
of the aforementioned Pacific trough, which is progged to
linger through much of the coming workweek as it butts up
against strong high pressure over the Great Lakes region.
Chances for precipitation continue to wrap around an attendant
surface low through much of the period, with low to medium
chances (15 to 35 percent) found across much of of the forecast
area. P-type remains somewhat contentious during this period,
as ensemble members struggle to resolve how far north and east
the shield of precipitation extends. As of the current forecast
cycle, some initial rainfall can be anticipated across the west
and south central as an interrogating of BUFKIT model soundings
indicate that the column is progged to remain above freezing
through early Monday evening. Then, a general transition to a
rain-snow mix, then a mainly snow is anticipated overnight as
the low becomes parked and starts to ingest more and more cool
air out of the Canadian Prairies. Depending on the rate of this
transition, a brief period of freezing drizzle is not out of
the question as the lower level cools and saturates more quickly
than the the mid level can fall into the DGZ, though the
location and duration of such remains very uncertain this far
ahead of time. The majority ensemble cluster (approximately 45
percent of model members) favor wintry precipitation to remain
the main mode Tuesday as highs linger mainly in the 30s, before
the slow progression of the low center further to the east could
allow another round of rain- snow mix Wednesday afternoon and
evening as temperatures warm briefly into the mid 30s to lower
40s. A minority cluster also exists (35 percent of members),
which favors a mixed precipitation mode both Tuesday and
Wednesday as near surface temperatures hover around freezing
across the north to mid 30s and lowers 40s south. Chances for
precipitation then diminish and exit to the east Wednesday night
through Thursday morning as the low system moves into the Great
Lakes Region. When it`s all said and done, all precipitation is
anticipated to be fairly light, and with limited accumulations
if any. Overall impact during this period is currently
anticipated to be limited, though we will continue to monitor
forecast trends through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Cold front pushing southeast through North Dakota with a couple
of bands of rain showers also dropping southeast through the
forecast area. VFR cloudiness associated with the lead band of
rain pushing through the far south central and the James River
Valley. Behind the cold front there is an area of MVFR
cloudiness over western ND, and this will also drop south
through western and central ND overnight. Parts of southwest ND,
including KDIK, could see a period of IFR/LIFR conditions from
both ceilings and visibility overnight into Saturday morning.
High pressure will build southeast over the forecast areas on
Saturday, which should clear out most of the lower clouds over
central ND. However, behind the surface high, warm advection
cloudiness is expected over eastern Montana and western ND,
which may push back into southwest ND, including KDIK, Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...TWH/Hollan