631
FXUS63 KBIS 051918
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
218 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 70s and 80s today, warming into the mid 80s to
  mid 90s and becoming windy this the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over
  western North Dakota Saturday night.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms over much of
  western and central North Dakota Sunday evening.

- A more active severe weather pattern looks to continue next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

An active weather pattern will continue through the next week with
periodic showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that develop
this afternoon should remain sub-severe. However, near daily
chances for severe weather are possible somewhere in the state
this weekend through the middle of next week.

For today, a couple weak shortwaves observed in water vapor
imagery are passing through the forecast area. This is helping
to force isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms which
should remain mostly east of Highway 83. The RAP does prog
moderate instability and shear. However, mid-level lapse rates
are very marginal due to relatively strong mid-level capping.
Therefore, it`s not impossible that a strong storm develops east,
but severe weather remains unlikely.

Mostly dry conditions are expected during the day Saturday. However,
a lowly amplified trough will dig into the west CONUS. Shortwave
energy off this trough is expected to lift through Montana/Wyoming
Saturday evening with fairly strong WAA over western North Dakota.
Mid-level moisture is focused mostly west of North Dakota, though an
enhanced near-surface moisture surge is expected near the ND/MT
border as surface low develops in eastern Montana/Wyoming. This will
result in moderate MUCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg with a
somewhat tall skinny cape profile. The overall thinking remains
similar to yesterday that there is a severe weather threat for
western North Dakota. However, it`s one of those cases where it will
likely develop in central/eastern Montana first and there is
uncertainty on whether or not it will hold together as it
advances towards western ND. Will continue to advertise ping
pong ball sized hail should a more clustered mode develop, along
with 60 mph winds as the primary threats.

Sunday is still expected to be the more favorable day for
severe weather this weekend. Aforementioned surface low will
scoot into western ND. Combined with high pressure over the
southeast CONUS, this will surge Gulf moisture back into the
state. This may result in instability in excess of 3000 J/kg,
especially east of Hwy 83. Mid-level trough will also begin
lifting through the state, while associated cold front will
gradually slide west to east across the Dakotas. That said,
there are two major factors that contribute to uncertainty.
First, deep layer shear looks limited in the eastern half of the
state where the highest instability is progged. Second, a very
strong cap is expected for most of the day in most locations. It
seems the frontal boundary should be strong enough to overcome
this capping, but it may also limit the duration and coverage of
any severe weather that develops. Other than any lingering
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, Monday should be
mostly dry. After which, showers and thunderstorms, along with
potential severe weather, return for the middle of the week.

This weekend will be warm with gusty southerly winds. Winds
could approach advisory criteria Saturday especially for western
ND, and Sunday especially for central ND. Sunday will see highs
in the mid 80s west to mid 90s central and east. With afternoon
dewpoints progged to be around 60 degrees or less, heat indices
should generally remain below advisory criteria, but will need
to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon mainly east of Highway 83. While they should
remain sub-severe, they could cause reduced visibility,
including potentially at KJMS. Patchy fog may develop again
tonight, though impacts will likely remain localized. Beyond any
showers and thunderstorms, or patchy fog development, VFR
ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken