203
FXUS63 KBIS 100830
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
230 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of snow and blowing snow will continue across northern
  and eastern portions of the state overnight.

- Very strong winds expected through the early morning, with
  gusts as high as 55 mph.

- Another round of snow will impact all of western and central
  North Dakota this afternoon through Thursday night. Areas of
  freezing rain are also possible with this system in western
  and south central North Dakota.

- Below average temperatures are expected today through the
  upcoming weekend, with dangerous wind chills possible Thursday
  evening through Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Light snowfall and blowing snow continues across portions the
southern James River Valley at the time of this update.
Visibilities where this is occurring has dropped as low as 1 SM
over the past few hours. Precpitation is generally anticipated
to exit to the east of the forecast area over the next few hours.
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect across portions of
central North Dakota until 6 AM this morning. Winds across
western and central North Dakota have greatly diminished since
midnight, with gusts broadly less than 40 MPH at this time. The
High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire on time at 3 AM CST
this morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 927 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Several adjustments were made to the High Wind Warning, based on
observations and expected trends:

- Allowed Divide, Williams, McKenzie, Dunn, Golden Valley,
  Billings, and McHenry Counties to expire on time at 9 PM CST.

- Extended the warning for Burke, Renville, Mountrail, Ward,
  McLean, Mercer, Oliver, Slope, and Bowman Counties until 3 AM
  CST, matching the expiration time of the rest of the warning.

- Cancelled the warning in Wells and Foster Counties.

We have had several gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range over the
last 2 hours, especially along a broad corridor from Stanley to
Napoleon to Ellendale. This lines up well with the greatest
overlap of maximum mixing layer winds, most intense cold air
advection, and strongest surface pressure rises. All locations
should see a general downward trend in surface winds and gusts
over the next several hours, but south central parts of the
state will likely continue to see 55-65 mph gusts and sustained
winds near 40 mph until after midnight.

Light precipitation, mostly falling as snow but with occasional
light freezing rain on the western edge, continues to fall along
and east of Highway 83. Known and observed impacts, including
from blowing snow, line up well with the ongoing Winter Weather
Advisory.

UPDATE
Issued at 735 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Quick update for the addition of Renville and Ward Counties to
the Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow. A period
of half mile visibility was reported at the Minot Airport within
the last half hour, and this observation is supported by webcam
imagery in the Minot area. The eastern portions of these 2
counties will be impacted the most.

UPDATE
Issued at 628 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

At 6 PM CST, the surface low was located in far west central
Minnesota, just east of the ND/SD border. The core of strongest
pressure rises has entered western North Dakota, where
widespread 50 to 60 mph gusts are now being reported. The
strongest mixed layer winds are analyzed ever so slightly to the
east of the strongest pressure rises, between Highways 85 and
83, increasing from around 55 kts north to near 65 kts the
south. The strongest low level cold air advection also coincides
with the core of the strongest mixed layer winds. As the the
stronger pressure rises translate southeastward this evening, we
expect an increase surface gusts, in particular from northwest
to south central North Dakota where we still anticipated maximum
gusts around 60 to 65 mph.

Radar shows an area of snow along and east of Highway 83,
surging south across Highway 200. Visibility has mostly remained
above 1 mile in areas of falling snow, which extends just
slightly to the west of the current Winter Weather Advisory. The
period of winter impacts ongoing across Ward and McLean
Counties is not anticipated to last more than another hour or
two, so not planning on re- expanding the advisory back to the
west at this time.

There have been several reports via automated surface
observations and webcams of light rain/freezing rain along the
western edge of the precipitation shield, mainly across Divide,
Burke, Mountrail, and western McLean Counties. RAP analysis and
forecast soundings do show an hour or two with the entire
saturated column from the surface to the top of the boundary
layer below freezing, but with minimum cloud temperatures not
yet cold enough for ice nucleation. This potential threat is not
expected to last more than an hour or two at any given
location, as was observed at Estevan, SK a couple hours ago, and
it is not expected to produce impacts beyond the effects of
already wet surfaces quickly becoming icy from the rapidly
falling air temperatures. We have added low to medium chances
for freezing rain to the forecast for this evening from
northwest to south central North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Quick update to add low to medium probabilities for freezing
rain as a precipitation type in northwest North Dakota through
the rest of the afternoon. Several automated surface
observations and webcams in this area indicate light freezing
rain, and RAP soundings do show minimum cloud layer temperatures
well above -10 C. Those temperatures should be cooling rapidly
though, and Estevan as already transitioned to snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Clipper system will continue move across the state through
tonight. Slightly different track of this low has delayed the
strong winds to an extent, although a secondary cold front will
push through tonight brining better cold air advection and
strong pressure rises. This could be the extra push the winds
need to be very strong this evening through tonight. Thus have
continued the High Wind Warning. Along this mentioned front will
be another round of snow. Across northern and central portions.
Accumulations for this round of snow look to be around 1 to 4
inches, although the combination of falling snow and strong
winds could bring areas of impactful blowing snow. Blizzard
conditions may still be tough to produce, although depending how
much fresh snow falls could be a possibility tonight. For now
have extended the current Winter Weather Advisory in north
central and eastern North Dakota through tonight. Look for
colder temperatures to move in behind this front, with lows in
the single digits north to the teens and 20s south. Given the
wet conditions today this could lead to a flash freeze tonight.
A brief ridge of high pressure them moves through Wednesday,
diminishing winds and perhaps bringing some partial clearing.
Highs on Wednesday will be colder in the east and generally in
the teens, while warm air lingers in the west with highs in the
20s to lower 30s. As this high pulls away a few light snow
showers are possible in the west Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday evening through Thursday the next round of impactful
winter weather looks to push through. Upper level wave looks to
move through bringing strong 850 mb warm air advection and
frontogenesis. Meanwhile the surface low moves parallel to this
boundary, providing for a longer residence time for
precipitation. Thus a band of moderate to heavy snow may set up
with this system. Meanwhile warm air aloft could also provide
for another round of freezing rain, with the highest chances of
this occurring currently in the southwest. There still is some
uncertainty in the models on how much snow and ice is forecast,
likely do to some ptype differences. However, today there was
high enough confidence in at least advisory level impacts from
this freezing rain and snow potential that a Winter Weather
Advisory was issued along, south, and west of the Missouri River
for Wednesday night through Thursday. Up to a tenth of an inch
of ice and 4 inches of snow are possible in this advisory area.
Winds will also increase through the day and night Thursday,
perhaps bringing some blowing snow potential. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the 20s southwest to near zero northeast, while
highs Thursday are forecast in the teens northeast to the 40s
southwest. These warmer temperatures in the southwest could
allow for some rain mixed in at times in the afternoon Thursday.

Behind the Thursday system looks to be an arctic cold front
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring breezy winds,
chances for snow and blowing snow, and much colder temperatures
with highs in the single digits above and below zero. Depending
on timing of this front, dangerous wind chills could also start
early Friday morning. Arctic airmass then lingers through much
of the weekend, bringing the potential for dangerous winds
chills. Lows each night are forecast to be in the teens to 20s
below zero, with highs struggling to get above zero. Sunday
could warm slightly although spreads in the NBM temperatures
remain large. Northwest flow also looks to continue through the
weekend. This could bring off and on chances for snow each day.
Right now the highest impacts 24 hour period could come Friday
evening through Saturday with the NBM chances for at least 4
inches at 20 to 70% especially in the southwest and south
central. Winds look to be fairly light during this time period
perhaps limited the chances for blowing snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Light falling and blowing snow can be found across central
North Dakota to start the 06Z TAF period. Visibilities where
this is occurring have dropped into MVFR to IFR criteria.
Precpitation will slowly exit to the east over the next few
hours, generally out of the forecast area by 09Z. With this
update, have added light SN and BLSN to KJMS. MVFR ceilings and
visibility lingers over much of the forecast area this time
though is similarly diminishing from west to east, with KXWA
already improving to VFR ceilings at the time of this update.
Ceilings generally improve to VFR conditions by mid Wednesday
morning. Another period of wintry precpitation is expected late
Wednesday afternoon through the end of the TAF period,
accompanied by MVFR ceilings and visibilities as light snow is
followed by freezing rain. Ice accumulation from 0.001 to 0.10
of an inch is expected across portions of western and south
central North Dakota through Thursday morning, with snow
accumulations from 1 to 3 inches possible during this same
period. MVFR ceilings are expected to expand across the forecast
area, reaching all terminals except KJMS by the end of the TAF
period.

Moderate to strong northwest winds persist across the forecast
area at this time, with speeds up to 35 MPH and gusts up to 45
MPH observed in the southwest and south central, including the
southern James River Valley. Winds will to diminish overnight,
becoming light and somewhat variable late Wednesday morning and
afternoon. By Wednesday evening, a general reorganization out of
the south southeast is anticipated, along with a general
strengthening to speeds up to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH
through the end the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ early this morning
for NDZ002-003-010-011-019>022-033>037-040>048-050-051.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
NDZ003>005-011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Thursday for NDZ009-010-017>021-031>035-
040>046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Adam