688
FXUS63 KBIS 272341
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
541 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog return tonight, possibly lingering into early
  Friday morning.

- Snow spreads from southwest to northeast on Friday, continuing
  through Friday night. Greatest snow amounts will be mainly
  southwest and parts of south central NoDak, where a Winter
  Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Well below average temperatures this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Low stratus continues to expand across the north central and
lower. As a result, there are some reduced visibility mainly
along the convergence zone of the stratus deck. Therefore a
special weather statement was issued for north central North
Dakota for areas of fog leading to visibility reductions as low
a 1/4 mile at times. Models have fog being patchy across the
state tonight and maybe expanding like last night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from
southern Saskatchewan through northwest and central North
Dakota and into north central South Dakota, while low is noted
over western Wyoming. Upper level analysis places low off the
Pacific Northwest, with ridge over the Northern Rockies into the
Great Basin. Northwest flow remains over the northern and
central plains. Over our area, areas of low clouds linger over
various locations, along with a few patches of fog given the
moist low layers and little wind given the surface high.

For tonight, areas of fog will re-develop again but some
question remains as to how low visibility will become given
southeasterly winds will be developing as surface low meanders
east and Wyoming surface low deepens. Will be monitoring closely
to see if any fog related headlines will be needed. Otherwise,
our next snow system starts to make its approach as
aforementioned Pacific low opens up and combines with a short
wave dropping from the northwestern provinces.

On Friday, aforementioned wave pushes into the region while a
mid-level low tries to close off over our southwest. Broad
isentropic lift will be on the increase, with snow starting in
the southwest and spreading towards the east/north. Greatest
snow amounts look to be along and south/west of the Missouri
River along with southern portions of south central North
Dakota, with notably high NBM probabilities of over 3 inches
over much of this area. Therefore, have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory starting Friday morning over much of the southwest,
mid-day for remaining portions. Advisory will then run through
the night until snow departs. For the aforementioned area,
expect mainly 3 to 5 inches as NBM probabilities for 6 inches
are 50 percent or less and not for a widespread area, but did
make mention of the possibility of higher amounts if the mid-
level forcing were to set up a heavier band.

Behind this system cold high pressure settles over the area,
with the coldest air settling in Saturday night through Sunday
night. Overnight lows at or below zero are expected with highs
around 10 above for Sunday, about 20 to 25 degrees below
average. Temperatures rebound some going into next week, but
overall we remain generally below average. A variety of weak
disturbances pass through the flow Tuesday onward, bringing low
to medium snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Low stratus continues to linger across the state and will result
in patchy to widespread IFR conditions tonight. There may be
some visibility impacts as patchy dense fog forms. Amendments
will be made for fog if it develops near any TAF terminals. A
system is forecast to move into the southwest tomorrow morning
expanding to the south central and the northwest tomorrow
afternoon. Snow will lead to visibility reductions and low
ceilings. Winds are forecast to remain out of the east through
the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday to 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ017>020-034-046-050-051.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Friday to 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Johnson