278
FXUS63 KBIS 011808
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
108 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures Sunday.

- Windy on Sunday.

- Seasonable temperatures for the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Fog is now gone, while the upper level clouds slowly slide
across the Northern Plains. Winds are gusting around 25 mph with
a tightening pressure gradient.

UPDATE
Issued at 949 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Advection fog continues to float around the south central and
James River Valley. With mostly clear skies above the fog, it
should dissipate in the next few hours. Meanwhile the western
and central areas continue to be mostly cloudy ahead of the
trough and warm front.

UPDATE
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

For morning update only change was to add some patchy fog over
parts of south central North Dakota into the James River Valley.
In areas where clearing has developed, some fog has been noted
developing over the past hour or two. Otherwise, going forecast
remains in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Current surface analysis shows high settled through the
northern and central plains while low remains over eastern
Alberta and a lee side trough remains settled to the east of the
northern Rockies. Upper level analysis shows ridge over the
northwestern CONUS, with compact low dropping from Minnesota
into Iowa. Over our area, winds have gone light over most
locations with the aforementioned surface high, but a broad
expanse of low clouds over much of the area has been a bit
reluctant to dissipate and depart, while a broad shield of high
cloud cover passing over the ridge is starting to make its way
over our west.

For today, a quiet day is on tap with temperatures starting to
rebound as warmer air tries to push in with the upper ridge
pushing easterly. Southerly winds will be on the increase as
surface high slides southeast and lee side surface low over
Alberta deepens before it quickly pushes east with affiliated
short-wave tonight. Precipitation from this should stay to the
north.

Early Sunday surface low will be over southern Manitoba before
pushing off over western Ontario through the day, with a cool
front dropping through later in the day. With that said,
temperatures will have a chance to warm up and be quite mild,
with highs around 10 to 15 degrees above average. With that
said, main concern will be increasing winds, though latest round
of forecast soundings are a bit tamer with winds, and ECMWF EFI
is rather unimpressive. With that said, still expect a windy
day on tap with the potential for some 40-45kt winds to
occasionally mix down.

Generally westerly flow sets up over the area to start the work
week before a ridge passes over mid-week. This will keep
temperatures near to a bit above average, with quiet weather
prevailing. Pattern becomes a bit more active later in the week
bring low precipitation chances (~20-30%), but temperatures are
expected to remain seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR through the period. Wind shear is possible across most of
the state overnight and through the morning. Winds will be
breezy from the south today, turning to the west Sunday. Winds
Sunday will likely gust near 35kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Smith