017
FXUS63 KBIS 020510
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1210 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry with only a few hit and miss showers possible
  through the weekend.

- Near to above normal temperatures through the weekend, then
  cooler early to mid-week next week.

- Dry conditions combined with breezy to windy conditions could
  lead to near critical fire weather conditions this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Clear skies across southern North Dakota, with increasing high
clouds central and north. Southerly winds 5 to 15 mph keeping
it warmer than the past few nights. No updates needed.

UPDATE
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

High clouds are now starting to shift into northern portions of
the area. Otherwise, quiet weather continues.

UPDATE
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Quiet weather remains over the area with no changes needed at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

The upper level pattern remains locked in northwesterly flow as
an upper level ridge builds to the west and an upper level low
remains stalled over the Hudson Bay. An upper level ridge will
continue pivot northeastward into the Canadian Plains increasing
upper level heights across the Northern Plains. This in turn
will lead to warmer temperature this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon. Highs this afternoon are forecast to warm into the
50s to 60s. Overnight low will remain above freezing tonight in
the mid 30s to 40s. Tomorrow temperatures are forecast to warm
into the 60s to lower 70s. A cold front is forecast to move
through the region tomorrow afternoon leading to windy
conditions across the state. Windy and dry conditions are
forecast to persist through the weekend leading to near
critical fire weather conditions. There is a chance for rain
Saturday evening across the eastern half of the state along the
frontal passage.

Sunday, windy conditions will continue as another surface low
passes to the north of the region leading windy conditions due
to a strong pressure gradient. Sunday temperatures are forecast
to remain in the 60s to lower 70s as the upper level ridge
remains in the area. Monday another cold front is forecast to
move through the region bringing in low chances for rain and
windy conditions. Temperatures are forecast to drop below normal
into the 50s as a cooler airmass advects into the region. The
northwesterly flow pattern will continue through next week with
the below normal temperatures in the 50s continuing through
the middle of the week. Temperatures are forecast to trend
warmer through the end of next week as another ridge could
build out west. The cool and dry pattern looks to remain locked
in through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period.
A cold front will push through the area Saturday, with south to
southwesterly winds switching to the northwest and becoming
gusty. Mainly mid and high clouds expected with only a very
small chance of a sprinkle or brief shower with the cold front.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH