450
FXUS63 KBIS 021452
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
852 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow is expected across areas along, north, and
  east of the Missouri River. The most-likely snow amounts are
  around 1 to 4 inches, but there is a low chance for locally
  higher amounts of 4 to 6 inches.

- Periods of snow, rain, and brief freezing rain are possible
  elsewhere with little snow and ice accumulations expected.

- Near to above normal temperatures favored through this week.
  Thursday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the
  mid 30s northeast to mid 50s southwest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Made some adjustments to pops based on latest radar and
satellite analysis. Currently, the most significant area of snow
extends from southern Ward county, southeast through Sheridan
and southwest Wells counties and into Kidder county. We say
area, as of yet there does not appear to be any significant
banding. This area is within an area of steep lapse rates and
good QG forcing. The FG forcing does not appear to be focused in
any particular area, with best mid level forcing around the DVL
Basin and low level forcing back west of the Missouri River.
Will keep an eye on the higher reflectivities mentioned above
for some better defined banding setting up. Some potential for
freezing drizzle/fzra continues along and west of the Missouri
River. There are some pockets of lower vsby along the Highway
85 corridor around Watford City, Grassy Butte and Fairfield and
east into Dunn and Stark counties. Will continue to monitor but
at this time do not see an immediate need for any Advisory, be
it for snow or freezing precipitation.

UPDATE
Issued at 624 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Some minor changes made to the forecast based on recent radar
trends. Overall light snow starting to enter the state, with a
band of more stead snow forming slightly more south and west
than previous forecast. This does however line up better with
the meso analysis data showing steep lapse rates and more robust
frontogenesis setting up in more central portions of the state
versus the north central. It may be too early to tell if the
banded potential will now shift to this central area, or still
develop across north central portions as previous forecast and
hi-res data continues to show. Thus held off on any winter
products for now. Did however make some adjustments to PoPs
based on current radar and observation data. If the banded
potential does shift southward so would the potential for
locally higher amounts of snow. Something to monitor through the
morning hours. Only other update needed this morning was to
continue some patchy fog to areas not currently snowing with
mist reports remain in some western areas. There`s at least a
slight chance areas with mist reports or low clouds and no snow
could see some patchy freezing drizzle this morning. Confidence
was not high enough to place in the forecast as snow should
develop for these same areas soon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Clipper system starting to get organized and should start to
impact northern and some western portions of the state early
this morning. Currently, the surface low is located in southern
Saskatchewan. Radar showing some light returns west and north of
the border, with limited organization to banded precipitation
so far. Ahead of these returns are some patchy fog and mist
reports in western North Dakota. Overall look for this
precipitation to get better organized this morning and move
across northwestern, north central, and central North Dakota as
mainly snow and diminishing fog. Outside of this organized band
could be scattered rain, snow, and perhaps briefing freezing
rain showers. Hi-res models also showing CAPE values of 100 to
200 J/KG complimented by steep mid level lapse rates today. Thus
some thunder snow is possible as this low moves through this
morning into the afternoon hours. Main concern today are the
potential for localized heavy snow with any banded snow. QG
forcing still looks strong today, along with the mentioned steep
mid level lapse rates, and at least brief but decent
frontogenesis. Low track is along the frontal boundary although
will be quick moving limiting the residence time. HREF stamps
showing a mean of 1 to 4 inches across much of the north
central, with max values approaching 6 inches. NBM probabilities
for over 4 and over 6 inches are very low. HREF probs for an
inch/hour in any of these bands are around 30% although steady
movement of this low could limit residence time of these bands
at any particular location. Of further concern are some models
still indicating either a westward or eastward shift, making
location of these heavier bands somewhat uncertain at this
publish. Thus will continue to monitor the development of these
bands yet hold off on any winter weather products until higher
confidence can be attained. Otherwise another stark contrast in
high temperatures will be found today with highs across the
northeast in the teens and in the upper 30s across the
southwest. Winds in falling snow will generally be light today,
yet could be gusty in the southwest. Here gusts could approach
40 mph today, still short of Wind Advisory Criteria. Tonight,
surface high in the east reinforces the stalled boundary left
from todays clipper system. The result will be mostly cloudy
skies with at least slight chances for lingering light snow
across central portions. Lows tonight will be in the single
digits and teens, with some 20s southwest. This cooler air gets
pushed eastward from a weak clipper system on Tuesday. Slightly
warming high temperatures into the mid 20s to mid 30s for most,
with upper 30s and lower 40s southwest. As this clipper system
moves through there will be a slight chance for light rain and
snow showers. Cloudy skies and mild temperatures are then
expected Tuesday night, with lows in the mid teens to mid 20s.
Perhaps a few snow flurries are also possible under these cloudy
skies.

Ridging aloft then settles in for Wednesday and Thursday with
westerly flow bringing warming and mainly dry air. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the 30s to lower 40s for most places, with
some mid 40s southwest. Lows Wednesday night are forecast in the
mid 20s to mid 30s. Thursday still looks to be particularly
warm with forecast highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s for most
places, and 50s southwest. NBM starting to come online with the
warmer forecast spreads, and matching hints of warming
temperatures being show on the ECMWF EFI. Record highs for
February 5th are generally mid 50s to lower 60s. These may be
hard to break yet a well above average and dry day is still
expected for Thursday. Friday through the weekend is forecast to
be slightly cooler as the large westerns ridge breaks down or
shifts slightly west. This slight breakdown of the ridge will
determine temperatures and precipitation chances for the
upcoming weekend. As a result NBM temperature spreads remain
large, with NBM forecast remaining on the lower end of these
spreads indicating warmer than forecast temperatures are still
possible. This possible warmer signal is also showing up in the
ECMWF EFI values being elevated through the weekend. If or
where northwest flow aloft sets up, highs could be in the 20s to
lower 30s, while warmer areas see 30s to lower 40s forecast.
Look for lows in the mid teens to mid 20s at night. NBM
maintains a mainly dry forecast through the weekend, although if
more of a northwest pattern can set up then perhaps isolated to
scattered snow showers are possible with any transient clipper
systems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The next round of snow, along with lingering low clouds, will
bring MVFR to IFR conditions through today for most sites. Snow
showers will move from west to east today, with perhaps some
rain mixed in across the southwest including KDIK. Confidence
was high enough to prevails mention of snow for most sites
today, tapering off this afternoon and evening. Tonight, snow
becomes more isolated to scattered making confidence too low to
include in TAFs. Cloud ceilings could linger at MVFR heights
with perhaps some IFR heights through the night across most
sites. Southeast winds today will be come light and variable
tonight, with perhaps some breezy northwest winds today across
far southwestern areas. Some low level wind shear is possible in
the southwest including the KDIK area this morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin