085
FXUS63 KBIS 090251
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
951 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible in northern North
  Dakota Saturday, otherwise expect mostly dry conditions this
  weekend and into early next week.

- Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend with
  highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Precipitation has mainly moved out of northwest North Dakota but
there are still some weak radar echoes across northeast
Montana that will track this way. For now we will continue to
hold onto low precipitation chances over the far northwest.
Additionally, thunderstorm chances have all but diminished for
the night. No major changes were needed for this update. Just
blended in the latest observations to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

We did have one strong storm move into the northwest corner of
Divide county earlier but this activity has since moved off into
Canada. There are a few more radar echoes visible in northeast
Montana but we do think the severe weather threat is minimal
here at this point. We have not seen any convective development
over the James River Valley yet but some CAMs suggest a little
bit of activity will be possible in the 00z to 02z time frame.
Otherwise, no major changes were needed for this update. Just
blended in the latest observations to the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

After a busy couple of days regarding severe weather, it looks
like we will see a bit of a break across western and central ND,
especially if we can make it through this evening.

Currently, surfaced low pressure extends from southern
Saskatchewan east into Manitoba and the south through
Minnesota. A closed upper low is spinning over southwest
Saskatchewan, with another smaller, closed circulation lifting
northeast through northeast Montana. This weaker circulation,
combined with colder temperatures aloft is resulting in some
isolated shower activity over northeast Montana into northwest
North Dakota. As We approach max heating we could see a few
stronger storms or even an marginally severe thunderstorms with
quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds being the main hazards.

In the southern James River Valley, and especially points east
and south a very unstable airmass and strong bulk shear will be
in place late this afternoon and this evening. Another impulse
rotating through the base of the mean 50H circulation will be
the forcing for ascent needed to produce CI over the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota late this afternoon an tonight. The most
likely area for CI look to be south and east of the JRV. Later
runs of the HRRR are a bit farther east with the initial
convection. Will have to monitor, but if we were to see an
a storm or two develop, it would be over a very small portion of
the CWA and for a limited timeframe. The main hazards here would
also be quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds.

Saturday, there will be scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible, mostly in the north and central portions
of the state. The threat for strong to severe storms appears
minimal. It will be breezy to windy Saturday and breezy Sunday.
Temperatures through the weekend will be mostly in the 70s but
with some 60s north on Saturday and some lower 80s south each
day. After Saturday the threat for any precipitation remains
low at least through the early portion of next week. However, we
do remain within a broad northwest upper flow pattern through
Tuesday so a diurnally driven shower is not out of the question.
As we get into the middle and latter portions of the work week
we transition to a zonal to southwest upper flow bringing
temperatures back to near normal and possibly bringing back
better chances for showers and thunderstorms. However
deterministic guidance is not in great agreement and the NBM
ensemble temperatures depict a wide envelope of solutions
through much of next week. Until then, enjoy the cooler and
quieter weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the most part, VFR conditions are expected through the 00z
TAF period. However, we are expecting some low VFR or MVFR
stratus to develop across the northwest and portions of the
north central overnight and through the Saturday morning hours,
potentially impacting KXWA and KMOT. We could also see a few
showers around KXWA and KMOT Saturday morning and afternoon. For
now, we will leave mention of thunder out of the forecast, but a
few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out with this activity
depending on how everything evolves. Saturday will become fairly
breezy with winds out of the west and gusts up to 35 knots.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...ZH