324
FXUS63 KBIS 040030
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
730 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  through the remainder of the week.

- Highs in the 70s and 80s through the workweek, warming into
  the 80s and low 90s for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

With storms moving east out of the the forecast area, the
Tornado Watch for Dickey County has been cancelled. Scattered
showers and isolated rumbles of thunder will remain possible
through evening, mainly in the northwest and over the James
River Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The effective cold frontal zone has moved southeast of our area
of responsibility as of 23z, and is on a line from near Fargo to
Aberdeen as of this writing. The low-level air mass in the far
southern James River Valley, including Dickey County, has become
cooler and more stable in this post-frontal air mass. Convection
is ongoing in that immediate post-frontal air mass, and is apt to
be somewhat elevated, but a marginal severe-storm risk is still
ongoing. As radar trends allow we will likely cancel the Tornado
Watch in Dickey County in the next 1 to 2 hours. Otherwise, only
minor changes were made to the forecast with this update cycle,
with low chances of showers and storms continuing this evening
in central ND, and added into the forecast in northwestern ND.
In the latter area, cyclonic flow associated with the upper-
level low in southern Canada is producing some low-topped and
weak showers.

UPDATE
Issued at 427 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Quick update for Tornado Watch issuance in Dickey County. The
outflow from weak showers and storms has caused the effective
cold frontal boundary to progress eastward quickly, and as of
21z is roughly along a line from Valley City to far eastern
LaMoure County, southwest to Ellendale. Ahead of this effective
front, MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg is present, though the
shading from ongoing and upstream weak convection has resulted
in somewhat marginal low-level lapse rates, and midlevel lapse
rates are not particularly steep either. This thermodynamic
setting is tending to result in only a slow uptick in intensity
of updrafts, which means the window of opportunity for severe
storms in the far southern James River Valley of ND may be a bit
limited. The KABR VWP hodograph shows midlevel winds have become
strong enough to support effective-layer shear on the order of
40 kt, sufficient for midlevel mesocyclone development, though
0-1-km SRH is minimal at this point. The main threat in Dickey
County is apt to be from large hail and damaging winds, and it
may be only through about 23z or 00z.

The severe threat in the remainder of central ND is diminishing
as the cold front continues advancing eastward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Low pressure still located over southern Saskatchewan will begin
kicking off to the east today and tonight. An associated
stationary front had been draped north to south through the
middle of North Dakota, however has since resumed its eastward
push as a cold front. This should pass through most of the
forecast area by sunset, and perhaps even earlier depending on
if the front stalls again or not. Severe weather is possible
ahead of the fropa.

As would be expected based on where the frontal boundary is present,
the highest dewpoints, or rather those in the 60s, persist
mainly east of Highway 83 with some exceptions depending on
exact location of observational equipment. These higher
dewpoints will allow for increasing instability this afternoon,
which is progged to coincide with deep layer shear of around 35
to 45 kts. Similar to yesterday, with a north to south
orientated frontal boundary and bulk shear generally with a
southwesterly component, a clustered storm mode if favored
overall. Although there may be a brief period where vectors are
more perpendicular with the front, which could allow for
discrete cells to develop out ahead. With all this, golf ball
hail and 60 mph winds remain the most probable hazard for where
the slight risk is (southeast), while smaller hail and 60 mph
winds remain the primary hazard for the marginal risk.

Once thunderstorms clear out, mostly dry conditions are favored
through Thursday before additional precipitation chances return to
the southwest. Currently, other than the far southwestern corner, no
severe weather is outlooked in the state and remains south. That
said, one CAM does bring thunderstorm activity as far north as the
I94 corridor Thursday afternoon, so will need to monitor the
latest trends to see if the threat ultimately shifts a bit
further north. Friday could also see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, though severe activity is once again
favored to remain south.

Beyond Friday, a trough is favored to dig into the west CONUS, which
would put the Northern Plains into southwesterly flow aloft. This
could bring the return of severe weather this weekend, especially to
eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Beyond that, expect
continued periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms next week
with at least low severe weather chances over parts of the forecast
area most days.

The other story is temperatures, which are expected to trend warmer
through the weekend resulting in highs mostly in the 80s to low 90s
on Saturday and Sunday. Monday is favored to return to more
seasonable temperatures with another warming trend for the middle of
next week. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the mid 40s west
to mid 50s east. After which, most nights will see lows in the 50s,
with occasional upper 40s or low 60s possible at times.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A low chance of showers and storms exists in parts of central
and northern ND through about sunset. Light and drier westerly
low-level flow will result in prevailing VFR conditions across
western and central ND overnight and Thursday. There is a low
probability of shallow fog from about 09 to 13 UTC in parts of
southern ND, but odds were too low to include any mention in the
00 UTC TAFs. Similarly, there is a low chance of thunderstorms
in southwest and south central ND after about 21 UTC Thursday
that was not yet high enough to include in any terminal
forecasts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/CJS
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...CJS