024
FXUS63 KBIS 061740
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms southwest to 90
  percent chance northeast on Saturday. A few strong to severe
  thunderstorms are possible over south central and eastern
  North Dakota.

- Breezy to very windy conditions this weekend into Monday with
  the strongest winds on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This morning`s fog lifted into low stratus that has been slowly
diminishing through the late morning and early afternoon. Still
a modest amount of cloud cover across the far south central and
southeast, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere, save for some fair
weather cu. Did add in some low POPs across the southern James
River Valley area through the afternoon, with some scattered
light radar returns across this area and into South Dakota.
Can`t rule out a rumble of thunder but guessing primarily just
isolated showers.

UPDATE
Issued at 959 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Visibilities are slowly improving as fog diminishes across southern
North Dakota. Did add mention of patchy fog through the rest of the
morning but let advisory expire as planned.

UPDATE
Issued at 839 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

We are starting to see some improvements in visibility, mainly
on the western edge of the Dense Fog Advisory area, although
most locations are still showing either quarter mile or less
from automated sensors or webcams show significantly reduced
visibility. Will let the advisory ride until 10 CDT as planned.
Going forecast looks good for now.

UPDATE
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Added Oliver and Stutsman counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.
The coverage and depth of dense fog seems a little more
questionable in Stutsman County, but enough webcams shows thick
fog to add it anyways. Conditions will likely improve there
quicker than other parts of the advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Fog has developed over most of the southern half of the state,
with dense fog in portions of southwestern and south central ND.
Therefore, issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 am CDT/9 am
MDT. There is a greater than zero chance the advisory may need
to be expanded another tier of counties over the next hour or
two, so will continue to monitor for ever changing conditions.

Once fog dissipates by mid to late morning, expect mostly clear
skies and dry conditions. Or at least, mostly clear skies in
regard to cloud cover. Another round of elevated smoke is
working its way across the state from north to south and will
likely produce milky looking skies again for most of the state,
most of the day. Any smoke should remain elevated today through
Saturday morning. However, with a passing cold frontal boundary,
near-surface smoke will likely return to the northwest starting
Saturday afternoon while advancing southeastward through
Saturday night.

Speaking of the cold fropa, Saturday afternoon and evening will
be the next best chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few
thunderstorms may be severe. At this time, the primary threat
appears to be winds up to 60 mph and ping pong ball size hail.
One of the questions is the timing of any forcing. It appears
that the front itself will pass through the forecast area rather
quickly... by mid-afternoon. For the frontal passage, marginal
bulk shear vectors at around 30 to 35 kts appear more
perpendicular to the front. This could favor some discrete
cell development, though with only marginal shear, the potential
of these cells may be limited. However, a trailing secondary
surface trough may contain higher bulk shear closer to the 40
to 50 kt range with MUCAPE values around 1500 J/kg (these MUCAPE
values are similar to the initial fropa). Unlike the initial
fropa, bulk shear vectors should be a few clicks closer to
parallel with the forcing, which would favor a more cluster or
linear development. All this combined, believe the biggest
threats are as mentioned with winds up to 60 mph and hail up the
size of ping pong balls. Any larger hail would be highly
conditional (definitely not impossible) based on the ingredients
aligning a little better than mentioned here.

For Sunday, very windy conditions are expected, along with
residual shower chances mainly north and east, with thunderstorm
chances east. Precipitation chances will end from west to east
Sunday night through Monday with breezy conditions persisting.
Dry conditions are then expected Monday night through Tuesday as
winds become light once again. The latter half of the workweek
will feature periodic shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period, with the exception of the
very start where low clouds are still scattering out at
KBIS/KJMS. Light and variable winds are becoming southerly at
10 to 15 knots this afternoon and through tonight. A cold front
will start moving through the state on Saturday, starting in the
northwest corner where winds shift to northwesterly after 12Z.
There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the north towards the end of the TAF period, but too low of
confidence to include at KXWA/KMOT with this update.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Jones