122
FXUS63 KBIS 071929
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
229 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain showers Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across the
  southwest and south central Wednesday.

- Windy conditions are expected both Wednesday and Thursday.

- Above normal temperatures and breezy conditions favored for
  the second half of the week through the weekend, with the
  warmest temperatures expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Across western and central North Dakota, we see clear skies,
with some slightly breezy southeasterly winds, driven mostly by
surface high pressure positioned to our northeast. Aloft,
ridging is nudging into the west, with a substantial trough to
our east across the Great Lakes. The strongest winds are across
the west, with sustained 15-20 mph speeds expected, along with
some gusts up to around 25 mph. As a result of the cold front
last night, highs in the James River Valley and Turtle Mountains
will remain in the mid 30s, while the far west will extend into
the mid to upper 50s. Cooler temperatures will linger tonight,
with lows ranging from the upper teens in the east to the mid
30s west.

Tuesday sees the arrival of a weak shortwave, bringing about a
chance (roughly 20 to 40 percent) for some light rain showers,
moving quickly from west to east during the early morning and
daytime hours. As the aforementioned surface high gets pushed
off to the east, a weaker surface pressure gradient sets up
across our area, helping keep winds a bit lower than today.
Highs begin to increase a bit, in the mid 40s east to mid 60s
west, while overnight lows generally remain just at or slightly
above freezing.

A more substantial trough will dig across the state Wednesday,
bringing a second round of light rain showers. A bit of
instability will be present, allowing for the potential for a
few rumbles of thunder here and there. QPF remains rather low
with these rain showers as well, which also leads to concerns
with regards to fire weather. Northwesterly sustained winds
around 25 to 30 mph will be present, strongest across the
southwest, while relative humidity values range from 25 to 30
percent. As a result, near critical fire weather conditions will
be present for much of the southwest and south central. If
conditions continue to trend towards further deterioration, then
we`ll need to evaluate concerns with regards to both fire
weather and strong winds. Highs are generally expected to be in
the 50s and lower 60s, with similar temperatures on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday will be drier, as upper level ridging
builds across the state. Daily breezy conditions are expected in
the afternoon and evening during peak mixing hours. Relative
humidities will also decrease substantially into the 20 to 25
percent range across much of the west, though generally, the
strongest winds each day will be displaced from the lowest
relative humidities. Near critical fire weather conditions are
certainly a possibility. The axis of the mid-level thermal ridge
will move through North Dakota Friday and Saturday, where highs
may breach the 70 degree threshold across the south, with high
60s elsewhere. Long range guidance suggests a deep trough
digging into the west by Sunday, bringing about the next few
chances for rain, as well as slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions are present and will prevail through the forecast
period. Some low stratus may persist across the southwest for
another hour or so, but otherwise clear skies are present, with
some cirrus across the central part of the state. There will be
some southeasterly sustained winds around 15 kts across the
west today, with gusts up to 25 kts, tapering off overnight.
Otherwise, southeasterly winds around 10 kts is expected. High
level clouds will begin moving into the west overnight, ahead of
a weak shortwave.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson