070
FXUS63 KBIS 022036
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
336 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of wildfire smoke have returned today, possibly
  lingering into Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures will continue through the week,
  possibly warming to start next week.

- Windy on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Upper level troughing continues to dig across the Canadian
Prairies into the Northern Plains. This has opened the door
for a cold front which pushed through the region this morning.
There is around a 15- 30% chance of post frontal showers and
thunderstorms moving across the state this afternoon and
evening. Majority of the rain is in the northwest at the moment
but will slowly move southeastward. The aforementioned cold
front has also brought wild fire smoke from Canada which will
cause a slight reduction in visibility. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast to drop down into the lower 40s to
lower 50s as this drier airmass advects across the region.

Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 50s to
lower 60s as this cooler air remains in place. The HRRR Smoke
Model shows smoke moving off to the west and south due to
northerly to easterly wind shift this may clear North Dakota out
temporarily. Smoke will likely return with the upper level
pattern with northerly flow.

Thursday a warm front will ride through the region warming
temperatures out west before a strong cold front dives in from
Saskatchewan. Showers are possible along the warm front mainly
in the Turtle Mountains in the morning into eastern North Dakota
where the bulk of the instability will be. Strong post frontal
winds will move through the region Thursday likely leading to
headlines. Strong pressure rises behind the front could support
winds 30-40 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Temperatures Thursday
are forecast to decrease as a even cooler air mass filtrates
into the region. Breezy winds will likely keep low temperatures
Friday morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s. However, Saturday
morning has a shot of seeing widespread temperatures at or near
freezing leading to potential for the first frost and freeze
this a fall. Again, surface high pressure will likely enforce
these cold temperatures Sunday morning across the northern half
of the state. High temperatures this weekend are forecast to sit
in the upper 50s to 60s with widespread 70s by Sunday.
Temperatures are forecast to rebound next week with high jumping
back into the 70s, but the upper level pattern remains fairly
weak hampering any widespread precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Conditions continue to improve to VFR across the state this
afternoon. A cold front has passed through the state shifting
the winds to northerly. FU has moved in from Canadian
wildfires and has brought slight visibility reductions across
the state. A system continues to move through northwest North
Dakota which will lead to a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across the region.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson