665
FXUS63 KBIS 071214
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
614 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered light rain and snow showers ending this
  morning central, then rain and snow moves across most of
  western and central North Dakota late this afternoon through
  Saturday morning.

- Medium to high chances for accumulating snow late this
  afternoon through Saturday morning, mainly north and east of
  the Missouri River.

- Low to medium potential (30 to 60 percent) for two or more
  inches of snow along the Highway 52 corridor from the Canadian
  border into the northern James River Valley this evening
  through Saturday morning.

- Significantly cooler this weekend, with highs in the 20s and
  30s and lows in the single digits to teens above zero. A quick
  warm-up to near or above normal temperatures is favored next
  work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Light rain and snow is tapering quickly over central ND this
morning. Adjusted pops here to lower them to chance or slight
chance, ending in the southern James River Valley mid to late
morning. Clouds are covering all but the far southwest corner of
the state so expanded clouds a bit farther southwest than
previous forecast. Otherwise no significant changes were needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Currently, surface low pressure was situated over the Great
Lakes, with a surface trough extending back west into North
Dakota. A surface cold front was also dropping south through the
state. A mix of rain and snow was tracking southeast through
central ND, with snow or a rain snow mix confined to the north
central and rain over the south central. Widespread stratus over
the northern half of the state will struggle to reach the far
southwest, but otherwise expect cloudy skies across western and
central ND today. The rain/snow mix is expected to track
southeast through the morning and exit the James River Valley
by midday. Highs today are expected to range from around 30 in
the Turtle Mountains to the lower 50s far southwest. Another
clipper system will track along the Northern/Canadian Rockies
today and into southwest Saskatchewan around 00Z this evening.
By this time the leading band of warm advection precipitation
should be moving through western North Dakota with snow mainly
north of the Missouri River and rain south. There could be a
tenth or two of snow accumulation along the International Border
late this afternoon, but for the most part, precipitation will
fall tonight through Saturday morning.

Models show the nearly stacked low tracking from southwest
Saskatchewan at 00Z Saturday, southwest into southwest/south
central North Dakota by 12Z Saturday. The surface and the mid-
upper lows weaken slightly through this timeframe, but a band of
strong warm advection pushes west to east into central ND by
around midnight, followed closely by an area of FG forcing and
Div-Q associated with the mid and upper level system. The
strongest FG forcing and best moisture is a the lower levels
925-850mb, while the 700mb FG forcing is rather weak with
moisture becoming a bit limited. Combined with the strong lower
level FG forcing there is also an area of steep lapse rates
above 6.5 degC/KM that spreads into central ND from the
southwest. There may be a period of banded precipitation with
this event as it tracks southeast across the forecast area.

The latest operational NBM continues to be rather meager in snow
amounts. The developmental NBM and the HREF in DESI look a
little more reasonable given the forcing mentioned above. They
are depicting a high probability (>70 percent) of an inch of
snow from around Bowbells and Sherwood, southeast through Minot
and into the northern James River Valley. They also depict a low
to medium probability (30 to 60 percent) of at least two inches
of snow in the same general area, but within a narrower band.
These probabilities are generally along the Highway 52 corridor
from the Canadian Border into the northern James River Valley.

A couple other things to mention with this system. the HREF, and
other short term models do indicate a low probability for some
light freezing rain in warm nose aloft that develops ahead of
the surface low. This tracks from northwest into south central
North Dakota. Think the majority of the precipitation will be
rain or snow in this area. With multiple models depicting some
fzra, will keep the mention of fzra given by the NBM and will
limit it to a slight chance. At this time we do not anticipate
much, if any impact due to freezing rain.

On the back side of this system there is a small but strong
pressure fall/rise couplet. This should produce some strong
north to northwest winds, mostly over southwest ND Saturday
afternoon. With precipitation changing over to light snow
Saturday morning, and given the strong winds, there could be a
bit of blowing/drifting snow. Again, do not see much of an issue
with blowing snow given the warm surfaces and light snow
amounts, but there was enough light accumulation and strong
enough winds to produce some patchy blowing/drifting snow.

Once this system exits, strong cold high pressure builds over
the state, making for a cold weekend. Sunday morning
temperatures could drop into the single digits above zero over
portions of the northwest and north central, with daytime highs
in the mid 20s to mid 30s. After another cold night Sunday night
into Monday morning, we see a quick warm-up with dry weather
through the next work week as upper level ridging remains in
control.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

IFR ceilings at KXWA and KJMS to begin the 12Z TAF period, with
MVFR ceilings at KDIK, KMOT and KBIS. Expect MVFR to IFR
ceilings at all TAF sites through the 12Z TAF period except KDIK
which should see some VFR cloud cover this afternoon and this
evening. Widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings and vsbys tonight as a
band of rain and snow moves west to east through the forecast
area. Gusty northerly surface winds to begin the TAF period, but
winds diminishing this morning and becoming east to southeast
most areas this afternoon and early evening. Becoming variable
as surface low pressure moves over the area later tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH