828
FXUS63 KBIS 111152
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
652 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers west and north central this morning, then scattered
  showers and thunderstorms statewide this afternoon.

- Near to below average temperatures favored through early next
  week, with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s and lows mostly in
  the 40s.

- Breezy northwest winds expected today through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Showers along a cold front are advancing southeastward quicker
than previous forecast guidance had indicated. PoPs were sped up
with this update to account for this, and were also increased
in south central North Dakota where there is now higher
confidence in rain, as has been indicated by the last few runs
of the HRRR.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Early morning upper air analysis shows mean troughing from the
Canadian prairie provinces through the Northern Plains, with
several embedded shortwaves and closed low circulations. One of
the shortwaves is paired with a surface cold front, which is
bringing widespread light to at times moderate rainfall across
northwest and north central North Dakota early this morning. The
rain is expected to continue pivoting southeastward through mid
morning, reaching much of southwest but little of south central
North Dakota before the synoptic scale forcing rapidly wanes.
But from early to mid afternoon, scattered to numerous showers
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
across much of the state under the cyclonic flow regime. SBCAPE
could approach 1000 J/kg, but mid level lapse rates are only
forecast around 6 C/km with effective bulk shear no greater than
around 20 kts. Severe storms are therefore not expected, but
some small hail could occur given the cooler air mass with
seasonably low freezing levels. Gusty winds are also possible
with thunderstorms, but may not greatly exceed the already gusty
background winds that are forecast out the northwest around
20-30 mph with gusts to 35-45 mph. Below normal high
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s are expected this
afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly
dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating this evening, but a
few stray showers could linger into the overnight hours. Lows
tonight will mainly be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Northwest cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the Northern
Plains on Friday as several shortwaves rotate around a closed
upper low over northeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Most
CAMs are simulating isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms focused along a baroclinic zone from west central
to southeast North Dakota Friday afternoon and early evening,
along with weaker diurnally driven shower activity across the
north. Similar mid level lapse rates and slightly weaker CAPE
are forecast for Friday compared to today. Effective bulk shear
could be stronger, but model soundings show mid to upper level
capping resulting in much lower equilibrium levels for surface-
based parcels. This yields a similar threat ceiling for any
thunderstorms on Friday as that for today, with small hail and
gusty winds possible but severe weather not anticipated. A
slightly enhanced geographic contrast in high temperatures is
forecast on Friday, ranging from the mid and upper 60s far
north to around 80 in the southern James River Valley. Breezy
northwest winds also remain in the forecast for Friday.

The cyclonic flow regime continues through the weekend as a
closed upper low sits over Ontario. Deterministic guidance
suggests another shortwave trough swinging through the Northern
Plains on Saturday. This would in theory be a prime setup for
another round of afternoon showers, but model soundings show a
capping inversion on top of a shallow boundary layer. No change
to the wind forecast on Saturday, but it does look to be the
coolest day with highs only in the 60s. The NBM also shows
Saturday night to be the coolest night, with lows in the 40s.
Far western North Dakota may be in close enough proximity to a
Montana surface high pressure to provide a favorable radiational
cooling set up that could allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 30s in low-lying, sheltered areas. A slight warm up with
a continuation of dry and breezy conditions is in the forecast
for Sunday.

Ensemble guidance maintains a northwest flow pattern through at
least the middle of next week, but mean troughing shifts more
over the eastern CONUS while a ridge tries to build over the
west. The NBM maintains a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Monday, followed by similar chances on
Wednesday with what looks to be a clipper-type system. This
favored pattern allows for a slight warm up early to mid next
week, but still with near to below normal temperatures and
breezy northwest winds prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Showers with MVFR ceilings will continue to progress
southeastward across southwest and central North Dakota this
morning. Confidence has increased that the showers and low
ceilings will reach KBIS, and may reach KJMS later in the
morning. Ceilings should return to VFR levels after showers end
this morning. Then this afternoon, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of western
and central North Dakota, dissipating by mid evening. Brief
heavy downpours from showers and storms could reduce visibility
to MVFR or IFR levels. Winds are forecast to become northwest
around 15-25 kts this afternoon, with gusts to 25-35 kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan