606
FXUS63 KBIS 031756
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon into tonight. The main hazards are golf ball size
  hail, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado or
  two.

- Thunderstorm chances will continue Friday with an isolated
  chance for severe weather in the southeast.

- Hot and humid conditions today and Friday with a cooling
  trend through the rest of the weekend. Daily thunderstorm
  chances will carry over into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorm continue to move eastward through the
James River Valley. Quiet weather continues across the state, no
updates needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Showers and some thunderstorms continue to progress across the
state as an upper level wave moves through the region. Light
rain has been observed as this system moves across the state.
No updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to work their way
through western and south central North Dakota, but should
fizzle out in the next few hours. The main show is still this
afternoon through the overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Currently aloft, the ridge axis is over western North Dakota,
with southwest flow in eastern Montana. Showers and
thunderstorms have been present on the eastern edge of the
southwest flow, which are now in western North Dakota. They
will slowly move east, and fizzle out by 9am CT.

Today will hot and humid, with highs in the 90s, and dew points
in the mid 60s. This is due to a warm front sweeping through,
and a strong thermal ridge. Along the front, around 3000 J/kg
of MUCAPE are expected, with around 30kts of shear.
Unfortunately there is still uncertainty with location and
timing due to the models being so different. Regardless we are
messenging golfball size hail and one or two tornado due to low
level helicity and a supercell storm mode initially. They will
then form into a line, maybe after 8pm, and 70mph winds are then
possible with embedded tornadoes. Storms look to form in far
western North Dakota around 4pm MT. These storms will linger
overnight as they move across the state.

Friday thunderstorms will continue, mainly east of the Missouri
River with the ridge axis. The eastern part of our CWA will
reach the 90s again while the west is in the lower 80s. An upper
level short wave is forecast to move through the region
bringing in chances for thunderstorms again. In addition,
precipitable water is forecast to increase across the eastern
half of the state ranging from 1.5 in Bismarck to 1.8 in Fargo
which could lead to the heavy rain potential. The heavy rain
will be more localized as the NBM probabilities of an inch or
more of precipitation are low through Saturday. There is an
isolated risk for severe weather out east Friday afternoon
clipping the southern James River Valley. Quarter sized hail and
60mph winds are possible. Timing looks to be in the afternoon
and evening.

We will remain in southwest flow with multiple
waves and low pressures moving through the state this weekend.
Given daily low to medium chances of thunderstorms. Highs will
be cooler in the 80s. Starting Tuesday, a broad ridging pattern
takes hold of the Northern Plains again. Temperatures could
climb back into the 90s mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions will continue across the state this afternoon.
Models have pushed back the timing for thunderstorms to this
evening. Models are inconsistent in timing and location of
thunderstorms this evening. However, each TAF site does have one
or two models moving thunderstorms through the terminal tonight,
thus there are low to medium chance for TSRA. Amendments will
be made if thunderstorms arrive earlier or later. Winds will
shift out of the northwest by tomorrow as a front moves through
the region.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Johnson