122
FXUS63 KBIS 171147
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
647 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers lingering through this morning, diminishing
  across the northeast this afternoon. Scattered rain showers
  again possible tonight into Saturday morning.

- Windy conditions expected today, Saturday, and Monday.

- Widespread below freezing temperatures may return Saturday
  night into Sunday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday
  morning.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the middle of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Limited updates needed this morning. Showers and low clouds
continue to be found across much of the CWA, although are
expected to go on a diminishing trend through the morning.
Current visibility reductions appear to be more from rain or
mist/drizzle, thus have removed fog mention for this morning.
Overall the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Upper level low and its associate surface low will push north
into Canada today. Rain showers on the back side of this low
will move from west to east this morning, before pushing out of
North Dakota this afternoon. Areas without rain this morning
could also see some patchy fog. Breezy to perhaps windy
westerly winds could then form behind this low today. These
westerly winds could also bring some slightly warmer
temperatures in the 60s. Some clearing of skies may also be
found today, perhaps helping warming temperatures. Tonight, a
weak wave and associated cold front looks to move through the
area. NBM PoPs are fairly low with this feature, although hi-res
guidance showing isolated to scattered showers. Blended in hi-
res guidance to account for passage of this front tonight into
Saturday morning. Behind this front will be cooler temperatures
tonight, with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Perhaps some snow
can mix with rain in these mentioned showers, although for the
most part rain is expected today. A post frontal day is then
expected for Saturday. Look for slightly cooler temperatures in
the 50s with mainly clear skies. Westerly winds could again be
breezy to windy on Saturday. ECMWF EFI values look to be fairly
low today, and slightly more elevated on Saturday. Perhaps some
advisory level winds are possible on Saturday. Although the best
pressure rises and cold air advection looks to come Saturday
morning when mixing is generally not as favorable. Thus kept in
NBM winds for the time being. Winds diminish Saturday night,
while a surface high pressure ridge moves in. This could bring
widespread lows at or below freezing across the area. This ridge
then looks to move eastward Sunday, bringing an increased
southerly flow and warmer temperatures in the mid 50s to mid
60s. Mainly dry conditions are also expected during the day
Sunday. A clipper type system then looks to return chances for
mainly rain showers Sunday night into Monday as the system
moves through. Lows Sunday night with this system are forecast
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

The mentioned clipper system could then linger showers across
the area on Monday. More breezy to windy conditions are also
possible with this system on Monday. ECMWF EFI values are more
elevated for the Monday system, perhaps indicating at least
advisory level winds are possible. This system is then forecast
to move eastward Monday night, leaving the area under another
surface ridge. Winds and precipitation will diminish as a
result, however, widespread below freezing temperatures could
again return. Clusters then indicate more of a zonal flow
pattern through mid week, developing into more of an upper level
ridge later in the week. The result is a mainly dry forecast
through the rest of next week, with perhaps warming temperatures
by mid to late next week. The ridging and overall dry air in
place could also mean morning low temperatures remain in the 30s
and perhaps near or below freezing each morning next week. NBM
does still have some spreads in temperatures next week, but
still overall show this mentioned warming trend by mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Rain showers and low clouds will continue to bring IFR to MVFR
conditions this morning, with some MVFR to low VFR conditions
to areas without rain, mainly in the south central and
southeast. As rain diminishes later this morning, clouds will
also diminish to mainly VFR ceilings by this afternoon for most
sites. VFR conditions will then remain until tonight when a cold
front brings chances for more showers and perhaps some MVFR to
IFR cloud ceilings. Breezy westerly winds will also be found
today, diminishing somewhat tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin