371
FXUS63 KBIS 121912
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
212 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of smoke will exit most of the forecast area this
  afternoon, though may linger in parts the James River Valley
  through the night. Otherwise, dry with a warming trend through
  the weekend.

- Turning cooler north on Monday but remaining hot south. Highs
  ranging from the mid 70s far north to the mid 90s far south.

- Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms Monday through Monday night, some storms could
  be strong to severe.

- Notably cooler mid-week with periodic chances for showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Areas of near-surface smoke have cleared out of western North
Dakota, and will continue to clear out of central ND through the
afternoon. Smoke may linger through tonight over eastern parts
of the state, potentially including parts of the James River
Valley. Other than a glancing blow Sunday afternoon near the
Turtle Mountains as smoke slides through northeastern ND, smoke
free skies should then prevail through at least Sunday night.

For tonight, a windshift boundary will pass through the state from
northwest to southeast. CAMs suggest a few returns may accompany
this boundary. However, model forecast soundings present very
dry air near the surface, therefore expect most any returns to
be virga or sprinkles at best. As a result, maintaining a lack
of mentionable PoPs at this time. For Sunday, another dry day is
expected. Surface low pressure to the west with high pressure
to the southeast should generate breezy winds mainly for the
eastern half of the state during the afternoon. Warmer
conditions are also expected with highs ranging from the low 80s
far north to the upper 80s southeast and near 90 southwest.

Mostly dry conditions are then favored Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. That said, a quasi-stationary west to east frontal
boundary may set-up near the Canadian border during this timeframe.
If so, showers, potentially with a few rumbles of thunder, will
be possible in northern ND. In addition, there will be a sharp
temperature gradient as a result of this boundary. At this time,
the deterministic NBM produces highs mainly in the mid 70s
north of Highway 2 to the low 90s near the ND/SD border. Any
shift in the set-up of this boundary further north or south will
moderately impact highs for any given location in the state, as
well as which locations may see showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

Late Monday afternoon and evening is when more impactful weather
may return. As the aforementioned quasi-stationary frontal
boundary begins dipping southward as a cold front, the potential
for severe weather could increase. The couple CAMs that go
through Monday afternoon are already hinting at thunderstorm
development in the very late afternoon. Both SPC and CSU
Machine learning have introduced a marginal risk for severe
weather Monday for much of the state, with CSU also introducing
a narrow ribbon of slight from western SD into south central ND.

Beyond Monday, expect much cooler temperatures for the remainder of
the workweek. Wednesday is favored to be the coolest day of the week
with highs mostly in the 60s, although NBM ensemble 25th/75th
temperature spreads remain fairly large and in excess of 10 degrees.
With the "deterministic" NBM forecasting above the 50th percentile,
there is plenty of room for an even cooler day Wednesday. Other than
cooler temperatures, occasional showers and thunderstorms are
possible through the workweek with severe weather chances generally
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Smoke is causing MVFR/IFR visibility across all of North Dakota,
except in the southwest. Many ASOS/AWOS observation sites are
reporting MVFR ceilings due to said smoke, however, that is
inaccurate. There are no clouds producing MVFR ceilings in the
state at this time, although diurnal cu developing in eastern ND
may produce low VFR ceilings early this afternoon that will
gradually increase in height before dissipating this evening.
Smoke is expected to continue clearing from west to east this
afternoon, though may linger in eastern North Dakota overnight
tonight. Once smoke clears, VFR ceilings and visibility are
expected through the remainder of the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken