017
FXUS63 KBIS 211849
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
149 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing temperatures and mainly dry conditions expected
  through Thursday.

- Very hot conditions expected to return Friday through the
  weekend, with high temperatures and heat index values
  potentially above 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Overall quiet weather is expected the next few days. There are some
returns in southwestern North Dakota that have produced
occasional light rain. However, showers have been dissipating
over the past hour or so and should continue to do so. Smoke is
present across much of the forecast area, though visibility
reductions are limited and mainly in the north. Neither the HRRR
nor Rap smoke models suggest high concentrations at the
surface, so believe visibility should remain greater than 6
miles most areas, most of the time.

Beyond today, a warming trend is on tap through the remainder of the
week as a west CONUS ridge amplifies and gradually slides eastward.
High temperatures could exceed 100 degrees across parts of the
state Friday through Sunday, with the warmest overall day
favored to be Saturday. Mostly dry conditions are also expected
through Thursday, after which periodic shortwaves could lead to
occasional showers and thunderstorms Friday through this
weekend. Severe weather is not out of the question with CSU
machine learning putting low severe probs into the forecast
Friday through this weekend.

Of note, models do not favor consistent direct Gulf moisture through
this weekend. Therefore, despite similarly hot ambient
temperatures, dewpoints will often remain lower than during the
past period of hot weather. As such, heat indices will likely
be less than the ambient temperature as well. Still, at least
advisory level conditions likely if trends continue as-is. While
the lack of consistent Gulf moisture doesn`t preclude the
aforementioned severe weather potential, it will likely limit
the duration (number of days) and areal coverage overall. Will
continue to monitor the latest trends over the next couple days
to see how this all evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A few showers are present in far southwestern North Dakota,
while some near-surface smoke is present in the northwest and
north central. Despite showers and smoke, VFR ceilings and
visibility are present at all ASOS/AWOS locations at this time.
Showers will dissipate later this afternoon with dry conditions
then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. There
are some hints that patchy fog could develop in parts of the
north central, but overall confidence is low.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken