529
FXUS63 KBIS 101854
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
154 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of smoke will reduce surface visibility through Monday
  morning.

- Daily high temperatures through the week will mainly be in the
  mid 70s to upper 80s. Possibly into the low 90s mid-week.

- Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
  week. Low chance for a severe storm in the James River Valley Monday
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Currently northwest flow across the Northern Plains and a
surface high pressure, is streaming in Canadian wildfire smoke
into the area. This will continue through tonight until a cold
front and associated trough push the smoke east on Monday.
Meanwhile the smell of smoke will be high and visibilities will
be low.

Monday will be warmer, especially east ahead of the cold front.
The aforementioned cold front and wave will move northwest to
southeast through the state. Scattered showers and maybe a
thunderstorm will be possible in the cyclonic flow across the
state through the day. With the James River Valley remaining
prefrontal until the evening, diurnal heating will allow around
1000 J/kg of CAPE to develop. When the cold front eventually
makes it into the southeast, that added lift and shear could
produce isolate severe storms after 4pm. SPC upgraded the area
to a level 1 marginal for Monday. In the prefrontal air however,
the shear is too low for severe or organized cells. Model
soundings do have a weak inverted V in the low levels,
indicating a potential for severe gusts. Hazards will be 60 mph
winds and one inch hail.

Tuesday will then be dry as northwest flow moves back in, with a
thermal ridge boosting temperatures. Mid-week we could see
temperatures in the low 90s across the south and maybe into the
central. Wednesday a little wave looks to move into the west.
This will create a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday evening. Thursday southwest flow starts again. Since
this is our active pattern, severe storms are not out of the
question in the evening or overnight. The machine learning
severe forecast has a marginal level risk Thursday across the
whole state. After Thursday zonal flow will be the main pattern
with little waves moving through. These will produce daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms before a slight ridging
pattern develops late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR to MVFR through the period. Wildfire smoke is creating MVFR
CIGs and VIS. In the scattered spots where the smoke is thicker,
expected IFR VIS. Winds will be westerly through the period,
gusting near 15kts late Monday morning. A cold front will bring
showers to the north late Monday morning as well. The wildfire
smoke should improve by Monday afternoon in the west and
central.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith