046
FXUS63 KBIS 051140
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible Saturday
  evening through early Sunday morning across western and south
  central North Dakota.

- Cooler temperatures are forecast through the rest of this
  weekend, with another chance (40-60%) for showers and
  thunderstorms on Sunday.

- Temperatures will trend warmer again through the middle of
  next week, along with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

No major changes to the forecast with this product issuance. See
below for more detailed discussion and updated Aviation section.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Currently, dirty S/WV mid level ridge over the region, with a
frontal boundary stretched across central South Dakota northeast
into northern Minnesota. A few lingering showers early this
morning across parts of southern ND, where the atmosphere
remains unsettled due to mid level vorticity undercutting the
ridge.

After this morning`s showers, most of the day should be dry
across western and central North Dakota as more stable air
settles in with the mid level ridge and filters in behind the
aforementioned frontal boundary. Much cooler temperatures today
in the 70s to around 80, along with less humidity as well as sfc
dewpoints ranging in the mid 40s to lower 50s for our area.

Potent S/WV trough (now over the Pacific Northwest) will develop
east across the Northern Rockies today, and into the Northern
High Plains region tonight. Increasing southwest flow and
forcing ahead of this feature will trigger convection across
central/eastern Montana later today, with this activity then
moving into western ND sometime this evening and growing
upscale with strong/severe winds the main threat for parts of
western ND. SPC continues the Slight Risk for west central and
southwest ND, with a Marginal outlook to the north and east of
this area, mainly along and west of the Missouri River.

Mid level wave slowly trudges east into the Northern Plains on
Sunday, and will maintain below seasonal temperatures and
chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across
west/central North Dakota during the day. Precipitation chances
continue Sunday night as another embedded wave follows and
tracks east across North Dakota and far south central Canada.

Temperatures trend briefly warmer into the middle portions of
next week as broad ridging develops across the western CONUS. A
quasi-zonal flow over our region will also maintain daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms next week. Another cold
FROPA is then projected around Thursday, which could be the
focus for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms and
temperatures trending cooler for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the 12Z forecast period.
Winds will primarily be northerly around 10 kts this morning,
then will become more east/northeasterly through the day and
for tonight. In western North Dakota, there will be increasing
clouds and chances for showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening. Uncertain how far east this activity will
spread tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH