328
FXUS63 KBIS 081735
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures return today and remain into the weekend.

- Breezy south winds this afternoon, especially in the south,
  central, and James River Valley.

- Chances for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms return this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Forecast remains on track. Mainly updated aviation discussion
for 18z issuance.

UPDATE
Issued at 958 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Clear skies and warming temperatures are on track for today.
Breezy southerly winds will also be found today. Little updates
needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Winds are starting increase across the area. Still looking a
breezy day today. The latest NBM and surface observations were
loaded into the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Currently a slight ridging pattern is over the western and
Northern Plains areas of the country. An upper level low and
trough are moving into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface
yesterday`s high pressure sits near Duluth, Minnesota. With the
influence of that high pressure still, most of the Northern
Plains are forecast to be cloudless today.

Today, the high pressure will move into Wisconsin, while a low
pressure in Alberta moves southeast. The pressure gradient
between these two systems will tighten over the Dakotas,
creating south winds gusting near 35 mph. These strong winds
will mainly be in the south, central, and James River valley
today. Breezy winds will then continue overnight until the
pressure gradient releases Thursday morning. High temperatures
will start a slight warming trend today with the ridge pattern.
Look for highs in the 60s and 70s today.

The ridge will start to amplify through the end of the week,
causing temperatures to warm mainly to the 70s. The far west has
a chance to see the upper 70s by Saturday when southwest flow
moves in. This southwest flow is a direct result in the
aforementioned low in the Pacific Northwest. By Friday night the
trough will be digging through California. Of course with this
southwest flow, chances for rain return and maybe even a
thunderstorm. This trough could also kickoff a Colorado Low
Saturday which would impact the Dakotas. Temperatures will be
far too warm for snow, so it could result in thunderstorms or
just widespread rain. So far, the highest QPF amounts look to be
in the northwest and along the northern part of the state.
Temperatures will cool back down to near or below average to
start next week on the backside of the low in the 50s and 60s.
The pattern could remain active as another low pressure system could
develop in the Pacific Northwest again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Breezy southerly winds will be found through tonight. Winds
will become light and variable tonight, before becoming westerly
Thursday morning. Some patchy fog may form in western North
Dakota tonight into Thursday morning, although confidence was
not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Anglin