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FNUS71 KBGM 021134
FWSBGM

Spot Forecast for Long Pond...NYS DEC
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
734 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Tricky RH forecast for today as a warm front will be approaching
the region this afternoon and evening. There is high confidence
that RH values will drop later this morning through at least mid
afternoon. RH values are likely to drop in the 25-35% range for
several hours late this morning through mid afternoon before
moisture starts increasing late in the day or early evening. Main
concern however will be increasing southerly winds through the
afternoon. RH is likely to rise enough later in the day as the
strongest winds come into the region this evening. However, winds
will start picking up by early this afternoon with gusts generally
between 10-20 mph, and an occasional higher gust as up to 25 mph
can`t be ruled out, especially in the mid to late afternoon.

Also, temperatures will be warming up into upper 40s to possibly
low 50s in the Long Pond area. At this time, it looks like we will
at least see a 4 to 5 hour window where RH and winds get to near
critical thresholds from about 1200 to 1600/1700 EDT. High clouds
may help reduce heating some this afternoon as they thicken,
and this in turn would also make RH values slightly higher. At
this time, there is not enough confidence for an SPS for the NY
Leather Stocking Fire Zone. Also, with rainfall likely moving into
the region this evening and tonight, if any fires were to start,
it is likely that the conditions in the evening will quickly
suppress any activity.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........SE this morning 6-10 mph increasing to 15 mph this afternoon
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 8 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph shifting to the south
                    around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................49 to 68.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75  80  87  87  90  90  96
Weather cov.....                        SCH
Weather type....                        RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............38  41  43  45  47  48  48
RH..............40  35  32  30  28  32  38
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   10  12  12  13  13  14
20 FT wind gust.15  18  21  22  23  23  25
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.15  16  18  20  22  24  25
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............49  56  60  63  67  68  64

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers in the
                    evening, then chance of rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 14 to 15 mph with gusts to around
                    32 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 26 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................19 to 51.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........97     99     89     85     86     91
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............70     50      0      0      0      0
Temp............46     40     38     39     40     43
RH..............43     70     79     80     82     85
20 ft wind......SE 15  S 16   S 16   S 17   S 16   S 16
20 ft wind gust.26     30     31     31     31     31
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   900    700    900    1000   800
Transport wind..S 25   S 25   S 26   S 26   S 24   S 22
LVORI...........1      3      3      3      3      4
ADI.............51     23     22     24     22     20

$$
Forecaster...Kistner
Requested by...Jeremy Oldroyd
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508529.0/BGM
.DELDT 04/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeremy.oldroyd@dec.ny.gov