679
FXUS61 KBGM 111432
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1032 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and spring-like conditions will continue today across the
region. A cold front will drop into the area this evening, bringing
a few light sprinkles or rain showers. Cooler, closer to average
temperatures return for Wednesday, along with a chance for rain and
snow showers heading into Wednesday night.We will revert to the
warmer and drier overall pattern for the end of the work week. The
next widespread rainfall is not expected until Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1025 AM Update...

Very dry air mass is in place over the region. Although some
model guidance is bringing light precipitation to portions of
Central NY this afternoon and evening, it is very unlikely that
any moisture will make it to the ground as a cold front pushes
into the region. Expecting just an increase in clouds with this
front and possibly a sprinkle can make it to the surface, but no
measurable rain is expected. With this update, we have removed
the slight chance for showers for this afternoon and evening
from the forecast.

650 AM Update...

No changes to the previous forecast.

350 AM Update

Temperatures are starting off much cooler in the valleys early
this morning, where it is in the 20s to lower 30s. Meanwhile,
above the shallow inversion, the higher elevations are in the
40s. Southwest winds increase today, becoming breezy in the
afternoon between 10- 20 mph with gusts up around 25 mph at
times. Skies will remain mostly sunny through the morning and
into the afternoon. With 850mb temperatures reaching +6C, and
925mb temperatures up to +14C, daytime highs are expected to
reach well into the 60s across the area, and cannot rule out a
70 degree reading in the warmest valley locations. Went above
the NBM and even the NBM 90th percentile guidance, as
yesterday`s max temperature significant overachieved, and am
expecting a similar scenario today.

Dew points were lowered, by blending in some of the NBM 10th
percentile, as the soundings are quite dry today. Minimum RH
values will be between 25-35% over much of the area. In coordination
with NY/PA State partners, we will be issuing Special Weather
Statements for elevated risk of wildfire spread today.

An abrupt, shallow, mainly dry cold front will sweep into
the area late this afternoon and evening. It looks to enter our far
NW zones between 2-3 PM, reaching Syracuse, Rome and Penn Yan by 4-5
PM, then Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta between 6-8 PM. As soon as
the front passes, expect winds to shift quickly out of the NW and
temperatures will begin to fall. This front will have some increasing
clouds with it, and perhaps a few sprinkles or very light rain
showers.

The cold front does clear northeast PA by late evening, and
temperatures aloft and at the surface fall steadily all night.
Otherwise, tonight will be dry with a steady north wind between 5-12
mph. Cold overnight lows dip into the 20s for most locations; except
lower 30s in the Wyoming Valley.

Wednesday starts off dry, and partly sunny with the northerly flow
in place. Winds shift easterly heading into the afternoon and a weak
wave rides along the lingering frontal boundary into the area late
in the day. Clouds will increase and there will be a slight chance
to low end chance for a few late day rain/snow showers across west-
central NY and the northern tier of PA. Seasonably cooler
temperatures expected, with highs in the 40s for most
locations; except lower 50s possible in the Wyoming Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 AM Update...

There is increasing confidence in a quick burst of
precipitation Wednesday night as models have trended towards
some low and mid level frontogenesis. The precipitation type is
a challenge with surface just above freezing. The heavy
precipitation may help cool the atmosphere enough to get some
snow mixing in. Higher elevations have a better shot at seeing
all snow. Timing of the precipitation is also uncertain as model
trends have been towards earlier in the evening or even late
Wednesday. The later into Wednesday night the precipitation can
hold off, the better odds of cold enough air for more of the
area to see a brief changeover.

Warm air advects back into the region on Thursday with day time
highs climbing back to above average. Strong surface high
pressure with dry air in place means that there will be better
chances of clear skies. With a stronger sun at this time of the
year but still long nights, the diurnal temperature swing may be
quite large relative to climatology Thursday and Friday.
Overnight lows and day time highs were kept with the NBM for now
but if skies can stay clear, lows may need to be lowered and
highs raised.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM Update

The long term is looking warm and potentially active. A deep
trough digs into the central US with a strong surface low
forming in the lee of the Rockies mid to late week. This will
help strengthen warm air advection in the eastern US with 850 mb
temperatures rising to near or above 10C by the weekend. Deep
moisture also advects northward with increasing clouds and
humidity late week. Chances of precipitation are high for Sunday
into Monday as a front associated with the deep low pressure
system advects in. Ensembles have good agreement with the trough
moving into the Northeast late weekend so chances of
precipitation were kept at likely even for a day 5 forecast. One
thing to watch is the thunderstorm potential. Given the depth
of moisture and warm temperatures, forecast soundings do have
some good instability with shear. If the timing of the frontal
passage is late afternoon with some breaks of sun, there is some
chances for a few rumbles of thunder. Severe threat is low but
shear will be there if there could be several hundred joules of
CAPE to develop which is unlikely at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
just about the entire taf period as high pressure is in control
into the afternoon hours. Some MVFR clouds/CIGs could develop
around 05-11z early Wednesday morning near ITH and BGM as a
colder, NW upslope flow regime develops; but confidence on this
remains low, as guidance shows uncertainty in this developing.

An approaching trough this morning will bring LLWS out of the
WSW to RME/SYR/ITH/ELM during the morning hours; mainly through
13-15z this morning. Surface winds turn west-southwest and
increase between 10-20 kts during the afternoon hours. A sharp
surface cold front will move through from NW to SE in the late
afternoon and evening with winds abruptly shifting to Northwest
and slowly diminishing. Northerly wind continue into the
evening and overnight between 5-12 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Lingering MVFR CIGs at BGM/ITH overnight...then
becoming VFR areawide. (Moderate to high confidence)

Wednesday night through Thursday...Lower clouds and chances for
showers. MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs across the area. (Moderate
Confidence)

Thursday night through Friday...Lingering MVFR restrictions
Thursday evening, then becoming VFR into Friday. (Low to
moderate confidence).

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected; slight chance for afternoon rain
showers though. (Moderate Confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MJM