453
FXUS61 KBGM 132350
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
750 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move up the east coast bringing
several rounds of showers for most of the week. A cold frontal
boundary will then swing through the region Friday and Saturday
with another chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
730 PM Update...
With the scattered showers around, changed the weather wording
to scattered showers rather than chance showers. Temperatures
and dew points updated to match trends through the evening.

Previous Discussion...
A trough of low pressure will gradually move up the east and into
the region through Wednesday. Moist onshore flow will continue to
gradually erode any dry air in place. Enough lift should be present
to generate a few rounds of mainly light showers through Wednesday
night. Highest chances of showers continue to favor NE PA with
closer proximity to the low with the lowest coverage near the
NY Thruway corridor. Given the clouds and showers temperatures
likely will only fall into the 50`s tonight rise only into the
60`s Wednesday and back down into the 50`s Wednesday night.
Model QPF throughout still looks to be less than half an inch,
so no flood issues are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
225 PM Update:

A trough will move through the region on Thursday with
additional scattered showers. Some isolated thunderstorms will
be possible in the afternoon, but with not much CAPE or shear to
work with, any thunderstorms should be rather weak and short-
lived. The trough will push east of the area Thursday night and
will be replaced by brief weak ridging, which will allow the
coverage of any showers or thunderstorms to diminish Thursday
night. Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the lower to mid
70s, with mid 50s to lower 60s expected for lows Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
225 PM Update:

Not too much has changed for the long term period.
Unsettled/showery weather continues through the weekend, before
a drying trend may begin for the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, along
with cooler temperatures.

415 AM Update...

A warm front will pass through the region Friday bringing showers to
the region early in the day. Being in the warm sector during the
afternoon will likely lead to the environment becoming unstable,
though given the early shower activity, there is uncertainty if
conditions will be as unstable as what models are showing. Even
still, there will likely be enough instability and shear to support
at least isolated thunderstorms Friday. A weak cold front is not far
behind and moves through the region Saturday with another chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

A stacked low moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast on
Sunday. Showery conditions continue through the second half of the
weekend as a result. More notably is the colder airmass this system
brings with it as temperatures begin to trend cooler. There is some
uncertainty on how quickly this system moves through and if
wraparound moisture will leave behind some lingering showers for
Monday. Though drier air does move in from the west and lead to
break from the showers.

Temperatures this period start out in the 70s and 80s but after the
low moves through, highs will be back in the 60s early next week.
Lows will follow a less drastic cooling trend though temperatures at
night early next week may struggle to reach the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cigs have been staying a bit higher than modeled over the last
several hours so restrictions were delayed several hours for all
terminals. AVP will have a tough time going IFR tonight with the
SE winds aloft but brief periods would be possible if the rain
gets heavy enough late tonight between 6Z and 12Z. Confidence
was too low to include in the TAF as a tempo or even a prob30.
BGM will have the best chance at persistent MVFR to near IFR
with elevation helping keep the cigs lower. ITH, SYR, and RME
will have downslope winds off the higher terrain so cigs will
stay higher, likely bouncing between VFR and MVFR late tonight
through tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and
isolated thunder possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG/BTL
AVIATION...AJG/MWG