869
FXUS61 KBGM 281842
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
242 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold frontal boundary will move through the region tonight
with some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure then builds
into the region Sunday and Monday. Yet another cold frontal with
shower and thunderstorm chances move through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of mid afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms have
developed thanks to the increase in warmth and moisture ahead
of a cold front. Development should continue through the late
afternoon into the early evening from west to east. Instability
still looks sufficient for a few storms to produce gusty to
damaging winds with over 1,000 J/KG mixed layer CAPE and steep
low level lapse rates just ahead of the front. PW values are
elevated as well around 1.5 inches so heavy downpours still may
produce an occurrence or two of minor flooding. Severe
thunderstorm watch continues for most of the region. Timed out
pops based on the HRRR/NAM Nest and WRF NSSL. The WRF NSSL
appears to have the best handle of what is already occurring.

Slightly cooler and drier air comes into the region after the
frontal passage with high pressure building into the region.
Lows should be around 60 as a result tonight with highs Sunday
getting into the low 80`s on average. Low temperatures look a
few degrees warmer Sunday night as humidity increases a bit as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
1200 PM Update...

Ridging building into the area will have dewpoints surging into
the mid-60s, and high temperatures of mid-80s to low-90s,
resulting in a hot and muggy day for Monday. Heat indices will
likely climb into the low to mid 90s. Unlike last week, Monday
will be the most uncomfortably hot day, with the ridge eroding
later in the evening and overnight hours, leading to a shortwave
trough to sweep to bring chances of showers and storms
overnight Monday and into Tuesday. Temperatures drop 5-10
degrees Tuesday, but dewpoints in the high 60s to low 70s will
feel muggy during the daytime hours. Chances for showers and
storms continue through the day and night Tuesday as the
shortwave trough continues progressing over the area from the
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1200 PM Update...

No big changes to the long term forecast. Previous discussion
applies below.


Previous Discussion...

Midweek through Independence Day appears
mainly dry with near normal temperatures if not even trending
slightly shy of it, but the period is not totally with weather
features that could complicate things.

Dry weather is favored Wednesday with temperatures right around
average as we are generally between waves, and models depict
low precipitable water values reaching under an inch.

A sharp upper trough, perhaps even an upper low, drops across
Eastern Canada Thursday into Friday. For our region, this may
send a front through the area Thursday. Moisture may be quite
limited with the feature, and thus for now we only carry a 30
to 40 percent chance for scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. If they can materialize, the amount of dry air
could lead to gusty winds. But the same factor could also
significantly limit coverage of cells to the point that many
locations stay dry.

Regardless of whether convection occurs Thursday, there is
increasing confidence that temperatures and dewpoints will dip
some more behind the front for the Fourth of July Holiday in a
rather comfortable air mass and probably dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Main concern will be the timing and coverage of any
thunderstorms this afternoon. Formation may occur close to KSYR
by 20Z with development near other NY TAF sites from 20-22Z.
Confidence is lower than ideal given the storm coverage is
expected to be scattered but resulting in brief restrictions.
TEMPO groups were used to capture the best timing at each TAF
site. Highest chance at KAVP closer to 00z Sunday. Improvement
to VFR by evening.

It is also unclear if fog or stratus forms overnight at KELM,
KITH, KAVP and KBGM with data indicating both are possible.
Those restrictions would be around sunrise.

VFR most of the day Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon into Monday...Mainly VFR.

Late Monday through Tuesday...Batch of showers and possible
thunderstorms with associated restrictions, as another frontal
system passes.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, except pre-
dawn valley fog possible especially KELM.

Thursday... Mainly VFR, a brief shower or thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out in the afternoon/evening hours at any site.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL/MDP
AVIATION...MWG