451
FXUS61 KBGM 140533
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
133 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much quieter weather is expected today and Saturday as high
pressure settles in. Ahead of the stronger portion of the high
pressure system, an upper level disturbance passing through may
bring a few isolated showers this afternoon.

2) A low pressure system will bring rain showers and thunderstorms
on Sunday. High pressure will follow, bringing quiet weather through
mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A very much welcomed period of high pressure and quiet weather is in
store for the region over the next 2 days. An upper level ridge over
the southern US will build to the north and allow a surface high to
slide into the area from the WNW. Ahead of the arrival of the
stronger portion of this high, an upper level disturbance will
ripple through the area and allow for some isolated showers with a
rumble of thunder possible across portions of the area along and
east of I-81 this afternoon. The full force of high pressure will
settle in during the evening and sit overhead through Saturday. NNW
flow from this pattern will keep temperatures near normal with
partly to mostly clear skies across the region. Temps Friday night
will be the coolest we have seen in a while, with most seeing lows
in the low to mid 50s. A few 40s will be possible across N
Oneida county and in the Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

On Sunday, the ridge will break down as an upper level trough moves
into the area from the Great Lakes. A surface low will develop and
track over the area, bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the region Sunday morning into the overnight hours.
The current forecasted track of the storm keeps much of the
instability to our south while 0-6km bulk shear associated with the
low pressure system is in the 35-45kt range. With the lack of
instability, severe storms are not expected at this time. PWATs
will increase to around 2in, pointing to a chance for heavy rain
fall, especially where we might be able to get some convection
going, that could lead to isolated flash flooding. This would be
dependent on where the heaviest rain fell as portions of the
area are more susceptible to flash flooding given the multiple
rounds of rain we have seen over portions of the area during the
past week. We will have to monitor the evolution of this system
as a track of the low a little farther to the north will allow
surface based CAPE in the 2000-3000 j/kg range to work its way
in to the region. These numbers combined with the aforementioned
shear values would allow for widespread severe weather chances
across the region. A more northerly track would also bring
better heavy rain chances and thus better chances for flash
flooding. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall leading to
flash flooding is currently in place across the CWA for Sunday
with a Slight risk just to our south. This slight could move
north if the track of the low also moves north.

Behind this strong low pressure system, another ridge with
associated surface high will build into the area by Tuesday morning.
This high pressure system should control the weather pattern through
mid-week. Another trough moving in from the Great Lakes will be
possible to close out the work week.

Temperatures next week will be around normal to slightly below
normal given the mostly consistent WNW flow pushing a Canadian
airmass into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. However, still a likelihood
for a few hours of fog with restrictions at KELM and perhaps
KITH. Elsewhere trends are indicating a lesser chance for fog.
May need to introduce prob30 for KSYR and KRME for a shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon. Coverage of brief activity looks
isolated at this time.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Areas of low clouds or fog and
associated restrictions possible early morning.

Sunday...Restrictions likely with showers. Some thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon/evening hours.

Monday...Chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms,
restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog
and/or low cloud restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...MWG