790
FXUS61 KBGM 051831
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
231 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will give way to afternoon showers and
thunderstorms as a front moves south through the region. A few
of these storms will become strong with damaging wind gusts
being the main concern. The active weather continues tomorrow as
the front stalls with more potential for strong to severe storms
tomorrow. Quieter weather begins to return on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update...

Fair weather cumulus has sprung up across the region this
afternoon as things continue to destabilize with day time
heating. With a trough approaching from the west, the shear is
increasing across western NY into the Finger Lakes region. SPC
mesoanalysis has 30 to 40 knots of shear for the I-90 corridor
and with clear skies for much of the day, SYR has warmed into
the mid 80s with dew points in the mid 60s. 1000 to 2000 J/kg of
SBCAPE has developed with weakening capping. A lake breeze is
dropping south and that may trigger the first thunderstorms this
afternoon along I-90 with storms drifting south with time. LCLs
are high, largely over 1000m and approaching 1750m over the
Southern Tier and low level lapse rates are over 7 C/km. Water
vapor imagery shows a good pocket of dry air aloft, which would
help with dry air entrainment with any taller storms. The
combination of mid level dry air, high LCLs, and steep low level
lapse rates has created an environment favorable for microburst
and cold pool development. Hail is less of a concern today with
pretty weak mid level lapse rates but strong to damaging wind
gusts is possible with any thunderstorm that develops this
afternoon and evening.

With a slowly strengthening coastal low off of the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight, the front that is moving through our region will
slow and likely stall with showers and thunderstorms continuing
after dark. With the loss of day time heating and the low level
lapse rates trending towards a more stable low level
environment, the threat for severe thunderstorms dwindles with
mainly heavy rain.

Tomorrow will be similar to today though with more low level
moisture and clouds so low level lapse rates will not be as
steep and there will be more mid level moisture. The environment
is not quite as favorable for microburst but with a 250 mb jet
max nosing in with potential for some better shear near 30 knots
across more of the CWA, there is a chance for more stronger
storms again in the afternoon. The surface trough will remain in
place through Friday night so once again, the threat of showers
and thunderstorms persist into the overnight hours though they
will not be severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
150 PM Update

Saturday remains unsettled as a 500 mb shortwave progresses
through the region. With PWATs around 1.5 inches and deep warm
cloud depths, heavy rain is likely with any storms that develop.
How widespread the heavy rain is will be dependent on MCS`s that
develop in the central plains Friday. Some of the CAMs show an
MCS becoming an MCV that brings a large cluster of showers and
thunderstorms through though if the MCV cant form, the surface
trough will slowly progress east with mainly pop up showers and
storms that will be slow movers but more isolated. Shear does
look the best on Saturday with the 500 mb shortwave moving
through with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear so once again,
isolated stronger storms are possible ahead of the trough.

Saturday night into Sunday, the coastal low continues to deepen
as it moves out to sea. Strengthening NW flow will help bring in
some drier air to bring a reprieve to the showers and
thunderstorms briefly. With the 250 mb jet becoming zonal across
the Northeast though at the base of a long wave trough, models
are hinting at another shortwave moving in by Sunday afternoon
with chances of showers an thunderstorms increasing once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
210 PM Update...

The long term remains unsettled with zonal flow at the base of a
long wave through keeping the high frequency of shortwave
troughs leading to shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble
probabilities of >1000 J/kg of CAPE and >30 knots of shear
creeps up to around 20% chance each afternoon. Chances of
precipitation were kept for each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday with instability developing each afternoon. While the
severe threat is going to be dependent on the timing of the
shortwave troughs, the heavy rain threat will remain with a
warm, moist environment in place and flow coming out of the Gulf
maintaining access for these shortwaves to higher precipitable
water.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across NY this afternoon
and could ITH, BGM, and ELM in the late afternoon. SYR and RME
are on the north side of a front so the thunderstorms may stay
south so no thunder was included in the TAF and amendments will
be made if need be. AVP is too far south of the front for
potential impacts until tomorrow morning when the front drops
far enough south.

Tonight, there is a good chance that low stratus and fog
develops across most of the region, especially anywhere that
receives rain today. ELM has the best chance at LIFR fog but
LIFR fog could develop at both BGM, AVP, and RME if winds go
completely calm and skies can clear for a bit.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Front in vicinity with waves of low
pressure will cause occasional showers and associated
restrictions. A chance for thunder as well, especially
afternoons.

Sunday...Low pressure moving east with small chance of lingering
showers but improving conditions.

Monday into Tuesday...Potential for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...AJG