230
FXUS61 KBGM 231018
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
618 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly winds bring seasonably warm temperatures today.
Scattered showers and embedded thunder edge their way into
parts of Central New York tonight. Showers become widespread
Sunday as a front drags across the whole area, with a chance
for thunderstorms. Showers linger behind the front into early
next week, along with much cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
245 AM Update:

 Key Messages:

* Warm today, though not excessively so, with mainly dry
  conditions.

* Slow moving front brings chances of rain showers and
  thunderstorms tonight through Sunday night. Locally heavy
  rainfall may occur Sunday afternoon to evening in some spots.

* Trough digs in early to mid week with cooler weather and
  spotty showers; a chance for some lake enhanced showers
  especially along I-90 corridor.

Discussion:

     Now through this evening...

We get into a warm southerly return flow today as surface high
moves off shore. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will pass through.
This will yield above normal temperatures today with highs
mostly in the lower to mid 80s, yet dewpoints will hold back
mostly in the upper 50s-lower 60s range. This will mitigate heat
index from getting too elevated, though perhaps topping off in
upper 80s in some pockets of the Finger Lakes. As the upper
ridge gives way to increasing southwesterly upper flow ahead of
an approaching front, high clouds will begin to filter the
sunshine. Daytime will remain generally dry, but a pre-frontal
trough may attempt to get an axis of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms going in the Finger Lakes to Syracuse and
Mohawk Valley corridor this evening. Fairly stable low level
flow will still be advecting in from the departing Atlantic
high, so thunder chances look pretty doubtful prior to 10pm,
with a subsidence inversion still hanging on as an impediment at
around 3km. The pre-frontal trough itself though could contain
embedded weak thunder.

   Overnight through Sunday night...

Models depict that the pre-frontal trough will stall out over
our area with showers and maybe isolated embedded thunder
overnight-early Sunday, to await the actual approaching front.
The front itself will then trudge itself into the area Sunday
with developing showers and thunder, while nearly aligning with
flow aloft. We also get into the right entrance region of a
strengthening jet streak, causing forced ascent along and even
behind the front. Initially there is some decent Convective
Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the pre-frontal
environment, with about 50-70 percent chance or reaching 1000
J/Kg, as well as 30-40 knots of speed shear in the 3-6 km layer.
Thus a stronger cell or two could develop ahead of the front.
However, model soundings take on a moist-adiabatic look along
the front itself, with narrowing Convective Available Potential
Energy (CAPE). Given this set up and with flow nearly aligned
in the mid to upper levels, there is concern that a narrow
southwest-to-northeast-aligned stripe of efficient and
backbuilding/training rain and embedded thunder with higher
rates, could occur somewhere within our area. It might squeeze
along or just behind the front, also called anafront, as the jet
streak forces ascent. Most of the area could handle the
rainfall and indeed may welcome it. However, typically more
prone locations like urban or poor drainage areas, could have
some issues for wherever this happens to line up if indeed it
does. The Weather Prediction Center thus has a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall generally along and east of a Syracuse to
Elmira line, including most of Northeast PA, which indicates a
5-14 percent risk of flash flooding within 25 miles of a point.

     Monday into Late Next Week...

With a long wave trough extending from Eastern Canada over the
Northeast, much of the week is looking cooler. With ensembles
showing 500 mb heights 2 to 3 standard deviations below
climatology for this time of the year and 850 mb ensemble mean
temperatures falling to 4 to 8C, highs will only reach mid
60s-lower 70s after Monday. Monday itself should still manage
mostly 70s -even near 80 in lower elevations of Northeast PA -
before a shortwave spoke pivoting around the primary upper
trough reinforces cooler air into the area Monday night onward.
With cool northwest flow and warm Great Lake temperatures, there
will be enough lake induced instability for some lake effect
rain showers Monday night through Tuesday night, and
potentially lingering Wednesday. At the very least, a good deal
of stratocumulus especially in Central NY. After Wednesday, we
remain in broad cyclonic flow though the atmosphere dries out
more, which will favor generally dry weather with temperatures
nudging closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 12z Sunday. A frontal
system will approach the region tonight and as it does, is will
support scattered showers. Guidance is also hinting at ceiling
restrictions near the end of the TAF period. MVFR ceilings were
added to ELM as guidance begins lowering ceilings from west to
east. Rain showers were added to the Central NY terminals as
showers should hold off at AVP until after this TAF period.
There is also a chance for thunderstorms but confidence was too
low to include at this time. Winds become southerly and gusty
later this morning. Gusts around 20 kts will be possible through
this evening. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected for at
least a few hours after 00z at all of the Central NY terminals.


Outlook...

Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring
occasional restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered showers may bring occasional
restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; Lingering lake-effect rain showers at
SYR possible in morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...BTL