323
FXUS61 KBGM 020600
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend and
much of the upcoming week. Expect fair weather through at least
Tuesday with seasonably warm days and cool nights this weekend
and a gradual warming trend next week. Isolated shower activity
may return by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 AM Update...

With the polar jet stream in a quasi multi-longwave block over the
high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, high pressure stacked to
700 mb will remain in place through tomorrow. The atmospheric column
is bone dry with CCLs above 10K feet therefore ample sunshine is
expected today and tomorrow along with a clear night. Seasonable
high temperatures are forecast both days with another cool night in
the 40s to mid 50s. With these cool temps, early morning river
valley fog is a good bet each morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 AM Update...

The quasi blocked pattern persists well into the middle of next week
in addition to a retrogression of the Western Atlantic ridge toward
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will continue to suppress
precipitation activity at least through Tuesday. Stagnation of the
high pressure will allow some warming of the column with 850mb temps
reaching around 15C by Tuesday. Daytime temps will easily reach well
into the 80s but dewpoints are expected to remain comfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 AM Update...

The northern stream begins to open up during this period allowing
for some erosion of the western periphery of the ridge over the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes which will help to nudge the lower
level features slightly to our east. With SW flow returning to the
area, low level moisture will begin to increase through Friday and
Saturday. We still remain under anomalously high heights and a
strong capping inversion with weak dynamical forcing at best. The
NBM starts introducing low PoPs during this time period to account
for model uncertainties associated with the increasing instability
and very weak upper level forcing...but I believe that the prolonged
dry spell will continue for most locations into next weekend. If
anything...some isolated terrain induced showers could develop
during peak heating times late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the entire 06Z TAF package, with
exception to KELM, where the possibility for fog to develop
exists roughly between 09z and 12z. The crossover temperature at
KELM was 46F this afternoon and with a minimum expected close
to 46F we are not expecting widespread valley fog. The north
winds also tend to keep fog out of the airfield as well. So for
now, we maintained the tempo group for MVFR in BR between 09z
and 12z. Otherwise little if any cloud cover except some high
clouds at times.

Winds will become nearly calm overnight and then we will see
light northwest winds after 18z.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Early morning
fog possible most mornings at ELM. Could also see some smoke or
haze aloft on Sunday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KL