559
FXUS61 KBGM 200447
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1247 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A return to dry weather is expected today, along with cooler
temperatures. Warmer temperatures are then expected Monday
through the remainder of the week. Aside from scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Monday, much of this week will be dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 AM Update:

Made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures for the next
few hours since temperatures are still in the upper 60s to lower
70s across parts of Northeast PA to the Southern Catskills.
Temperatures are expected to fall over the next few hours behind
the passage of the cold front.

830 PM Update...

The severe thunderstorm threat has ended. The cold front is
dropping south along the NY/PA border at this time. Just a few
lingering light showers are expected through the evening hours.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy conditions overnight with breezy
northwest winds and lows in upper 30s to 40s. Morning clouds on
Sunday giveway to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. It will
be cooler, with continued breezy NW winds (10-20 mph) and highs
in the 50s to low 60s in the valleys of NE PA.

345 PM Update...

A cold front currently located across eastern Ontario and
stretching back through western Lake Ontario, eastern Lake Erie
and into far northeastern Ohio will continue to push south and
east through this evening across the CWA. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will persist along and ahead of the
front. The risk for thunder looks to be waning though through
the rest of the afternoon and evening. There is currently about
500-1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE with strong 0-6km bulk shear
on the order of 50-60 knots. Low- level lapse rates are around
7-8 degrees C/km, but mid-level lapse rates are pretty poor.
What thunder there is looks to diminish around 8PM and any
showers are expected to come to an end around or shortly after
midnight. Winds will shift out of the northwest tonight and
overnight lows will be more seasonable, but still a few degrees
above average in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Some spots in the
Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA will be in the upper
40s to near 50 degrees with the cooler air slower to push in.

High pressure will be building in overhead from the northwest
tomorrow with partly to mostly sunny skies. It will be a
noticeably cooler day in comparison to this afternoon as winds
remain out of the northwest, but the cool down is expected to
be brief in nature. In fact, tomorrow looks to be the coolest
day of the week before more spring-like conditions take hold.
High temperatures tomorrow range from the low to mid 50s across
CNY and from the mid 50s to the lower 60s from the Twin Tiers on
south.

As high pressure gradually slides off to the east tomorrow
night, a warm front will start to approach from the southwest
leading to an increase in clouds, especially across NE PA and
the southern Finger Lakes region. Lows tomorrow night will be in
the 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm frontal boundary Monday will attempt to pull northeast into
the region. However, flow off of the Atlantic Ocean will bring in
more of the way in terms of clouds and moisture. Given the increase
in cloud cover have trended temperatures a couple of degrees
cooler with most areas getting to around 60. The front looks to
become occluded by Monday night increasing the lift needed for
some showers to move through the area. Tuesday should see a
fairly quick clearing trend as high pressure builds in. Modeled
boundary layer temperatures warm quite a bit indicating most
areas should get well into the 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night looks to be the coldest night under clear skies and
light winds thanks to high pressure. Most locations look to fall to
around 40. High pressure looks to remain in place Wednesday and
Thursday with an area of low pressure riding along a frontal
boundary for Friday and Saturday. Timing of the system for Friday
and Saturday still has quite a bit of variation in the ensemble
guidance. For now, included chance pop for both days. Temperatures
look to trend a bit warmer with highs into the 70`s Thursday. Most
other days of the week look to end up in the 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front moved through the region this evening. A few
showers expected to linger over the next few hours behind the
front otherwise drier conditions are expected overnight. VFR
conditions with MVFR ceilings are possible through 06Z at most
sites. Mainly VFR conditions are expected to return after 06Z
tonight as high pressure begins to build in.

Westerly winds shift northwest behind the front with gusts
lingering into the evening at most sites. Gusts up to 20 knots
are expected to hold overnight into tomorrow. High pressure
builds in Sunday allowing winds to become lighter.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Chance of showers and possible restrictions.

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DK/ES