080
FXUS61 KBGM 061843
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
243 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues as a frontal boundary stalls to yield
additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms, a few with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Rain chances will gradually end
west to east Saturday, as the front finally clears the area. A
brief dry window Saturday night to midday Sunday, will give way
to an unsettled weather pattern for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1140 AM Update...

Today will feature the same frontal boundary in our vicinity as
with Thursday, but with more low level moisture and clouds so
low level lapse rates will not be as steep and there will be
more mid level moisture. The environment is not quite as
favorable for microbursts, but with a 250 mb jet max nosing in
with potential for some better shear near 30 knots across more
of the area, there is again a chance for a few strong to severe
storms; earlier than what happened yesterday, too. The Storm
Prediction Center thus places most of our area in a Marginal
Risk for Severe Thunderstorms; which means at least 5 percent
risk of damaging gusts with 25 miles of a point. Hail potential
is considerably less than yesterday, with a narrower Convective
Available Potential Energy (CAPE) profile depicted in model
soundings; much of it taking on a moist-adiabatic appearance.
Surface temperatures will also be only in the 70s for most of
the area, instead of the 80s-near 90 like yesterday. So the
energy will not be as robust for generating any hail cores.

The juicier atmosphere will feature an axis of Precipitable
Water values in excess of 1.5 inches. Individual cells will move
faster than what occurred Thursday, yet will also be plenty
capable of downpours with the moisture content. Locations that
already received heavy rain yesterday will be most susceptible
to this additional rain. Chenango-Otsego-Delaware Counties were
placed in a flood watch last night but with fairly robust
shortwave visible on Water Vapor imagery in Ohio and an increase
in coverage of deep convection this afternoon in the CAMs, the
flood watch has been expanded to include much of the Twin Tiers
of NY and PA.

Tonight, an MCV that is forming in the plains this morning, will
pass close to the region and help enhance the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms as it passes south. This could bring
an additional round of rain through, with up to an additional
inch or more possible. Some of the CAMs have the overnight batch
of rain move through Bradford county and eastward into the
Catskills. If this continues to trend upwards in precipitation
amounts, the flash flood watch may have to be extended into
tomorrow morning.

Northwest flow develops late tonight into Sunday with drier air
starting to advect into the region with a reprieve from the
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM update...

Narrow ridge axis in place across the Northeast US late Saturday
into Sat night will keep weather conditions quiet through Sunday
morning. The ridge will become less amplified and move farther
to the northeast Sunday morning as the next embedded short wave
rotates around the base of the next upper low/trough over the
western Great Lakes. Model guidance (both deterministic and
ensemble data) continues to be in fairly good agreement with the
placement and timing of this incoming short wave.

A good portion of the upper jet streak riding into the Mid
Atlantic region will place NY/PA into the favorable left exit
region where large scale vertical lift will be anticipated, and
co-located with a weakly developing surface low and a narrow
ribbon of deep moisture with PWs around 1-1.5 inches. Forcing
and moisture appear to be favorable for heavy rain once again
for the period of late Monday into Monday night. Another half to
1.5 inches of rain is possible on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM update...

The active pattern will continue through the middle of the week
as another short-wave ejects around the base of the Great Lakes
upper low into the Northeast late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Ensemble data is indicating a 30-50% chance of PWs
greater than 1.5 inches associated with this short wave. There
is a 50-70% chance of greater than 0.5 inch in 24 hours across
central NY and northeast PA.

The pattern dries out late Tuesday through Thursday as high
pressure builds in and a much drier air mass moves in. The
synoptic pattern across the CONUS becomes more defined by a
trough in the west and a ridge in the east. Temperatures will
also be on the rise again through the middle of the week with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain across CNY has resulted in IFR and worse conditions to
persist into the afternoon at BGM and ITH and brought RME and
SYR down. This rain will be leaving the area in the next several
hours with improving conditions after 19Z for CNY terminals.
Thunderstorms have developed near AVP and will continue on and
off through 21Z or so. Thunderstorms develop in the Southern
Tier this afternoon with a tempo added for BGM and ELM.

Tonight, fog develops once again with all terminals but SYR
likely seeing some IFR vis or cigs tonight at some point,
especially after 6Z. Tomorrow a cold front moves through with
drier air so western terminals such as ELM and ITH may see some
VFR conditions by 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Late Friday Night through Saturday...Front in vicinity with
waves of low pressure will cause occasional showers and
associated restrictions. A chance for embedded thunder as well
Saturday, mainly towards KAVP.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Rain gone Saturday night, but
wet ground will probably generate fog for at least KELM and
possibly others Saturday Night. Otherwise, low pressure moving
east with small chance of lingering showers but improving
conditions.

Monday into Wenesday...Potential for isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040.
NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ024-025-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...AJG