833
FXUS61 KBGM 041957
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
357 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Nice and quiet this evening under clear skies, but rather cool
overnight. Largely dry this weekend and temperatures will be on
the rise, reaching the upper 80s and low 90s by Sunday. A more
active weather pattern returns early next with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure settling in overhead will continue to lead to
clear skies across the area tonight. Winds will be pretty light
this evening and for those attending any fireworks events,
temperatures are expected to fall pretty quickly this evening
into the 60s. Overnight lows will be quite cool for this time of
year with an ideal radiational cooling setup in place, ranging
from the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

As the surface high slides to the east and upper level ridging
starts to build in, west-southwesterly flow starts to usher in
warmer conditions. There is a weak disturbance in the flow
riding along the ridge that some guidance suggests could lead to
a stray shower in the afternoon over far western portions of the
area, but all-in-all it will be a largely dry day under a partly
to mostly sunny sky. High temperatures are expected to be in the
lower to mid 80s with some valley locations rising into the
upper 80s. Dry conditions will be in place tomorrow night and
with southwesterly flow and rising dew points, it won`t be
quite as cool as tonight with lows mainly in the 60s, while the
northern Finger Lakes region to the Syracuse metro will be
closer to 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

It will be a very warm and humid second half to the weekend
Sunday with plenty of sunshine. With southwesterly flow
remaining in place, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s
and lower 90s. Combine the temperatures with dew points in the
mid and upper 60s, "feels like" temperatures can reach the mid
and upper 90s, and heat headlines may be needed in some areas of
CNY, especially west of I-81. Overnight lows will be in the mid
60s and low 70s.

Another very warm day is expected on Monday with highs in the
mid 80s to near 90 degrees. A slow-moving cold front and
shortwave trough are expected to move in leading to the next
chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly for the
afternoon. Ahead of the frontal boundary, model guidance shows
1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE with anywhere from 1000 to 2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, and 20-30 knots of bulk shear. PWATs also range from
1.50-2.00 inches, so a few storms could be on the stronger side
and localized heavy downpours are possible. As mentioned earlier
this morning, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall noted is
highlighted by WPC over the NW half of the CWA. A few lingering
showers and/or storms will be possible Monday night as the
front stalls over the southern half of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The stalling boundary mentioned above will keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday, especially over the
Catskills and NE PA. Areas north and west of the boundary will
be slightly less humid with dew points in the mid 60s and high
temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Near and south of the
boundary dew points will remain in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday looks to be largely dry with some sunshine and just
an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible before a more
pronounced shortwave brings a better chance of showers and
storms for Thursday. Highs Wednesday remain well into the 80s
and with more clouds and an increase in shower/storm chances
Thursday, temperatures lower a little bit, ranging from the
upper 70s to the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through much of the
TAF period. Model soundings suggest some shallow fog is possible
early tomorrow morning at ELM, especially with good radiational
cooling tonight, but not all guidance was onboard, so added a
TEMPO for some MVFR fog for now from 08-12Z. Winds will become
light and variable tonight before becoming south-southwesterly
tomorrow.


Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for showers or a
thunderstorm.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK/MJM
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DK