731
FXUS61 KBGM 171819
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
dry weather returns on Friday and for most of Saturday.
However, more rain showers will be possible Saturday evening
through Sunday, before dry weather returns for the beginning of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The ingredients for organized severe weather continues to be
disjointed with dry air in place with the strongest shear
located well north of the area, somewhat limited instability
due to cloud cover, and poor lapse rates. Still cannot rule out
a few stronger thunderstorms, particularly north of the NYS
Thruway corridor, but the potential continues to decrease. The
more noteworthy aspect of this afternoon`s weather is a
relatively tight pressure gradient that has resulted in locally
gusty winds.

Any lingering showers quickly this evening following the
passage of the cold front as drier and cooler air advects into
the region. High pressure builds in behind the front with low
temperatures overnight expected to be in the lower 50s to mid
60s and highs on Friday only in the 70s and low humidity. After
some morning clouds due to a cool northwest flow, skies should
become mostly sunny by the afternoon on Friday.

High pressure will result in dry conditions Friday night. With
clear skies, and relatively calm winds, radiational cooling will
allow for lows to dip down to the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny skies are expected Saturday morning but clouds
will start to fill in ahead of the next approaching system. Rain
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop late
Saturday afternoon into Sunday as a shortwave moves in from the
west. While sounding profiles show somewhat favorable 0-6 km
bulk shear, instability appears limited. Therefore the threat
for any severe weather looks rather low at this time.

Drier air moves in Sunday night as high pressure begins to
build over the area and a cold front departs the area. This will
result in clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will dominate Monday and Tuesday, keeping
conditions quiet and dry. Northwest flow will also help maintain
seasonably comfortable temperatures. By Tuesday night into
Wednesday, a weak upper-level ridge will shift eastward,
allowing an embedded shortwave to approach. This feature may
bring a return of showers and thunderstorms sometime midweek,
though model guidance continues to vary on exact timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, but brief
restrictions will be possible in any showers that may move
through a particular terminal. Thunder was removed from the TAFs
with this TAF cycle since the potential for thunderstorms have
decreased. It is still possible an isolated thunderstorm may
occur, but this will be addressed with short-fused amendments if
necessary.

Post-frontal clouds and a northwest flow will result in a MVFR
deck of clouds at the Central NY terminals tonight. KAVP likely
remains VFR. Otherwise, any remaining restrictions end by mid
Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG/ES
LONG TERM...BJG/ES
AVIATION...BJG