110
FXUS61 KBGM 301737
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
137 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of chilly air will predominate into tonight as
a chilly Canadian High Pressure system drops over NY and PA for
Sunday and Monday. There could be some isolated pockets of
frost in our normally colder areas Sunday morning. High pressure
remains in control of our weather through mid-week with dry and
moderating temperatures. Another cold front will cross the
region Thursday with showers. This front will usher in another
shot of chilly Canadian air for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall pattern is very quiet through Tuesday with a moderating
trend. Surface high pressure is following the upper level low that
is exiting northern New England today. At upper levels we are
downstream from an upper level ridge axis that extends west to east
across southeast Canada through Monday. This will support a large
and dry low-level anticyclone that will remain over NY and PA
through Monday. This will lead to dry weather with only some
scattered to broken cumulus forming today with very chilly air aloft
for this time of year. Visible satellite imagery is already showing
the development of this cumulus.  By late in the day, it will mix
out some and then fade by sunset.

For tonight, clear skies light winds and high pressure overhead will
lead to strong net radiational cooling. We expect similar low
temperatures Sunday morning as this morning. Our normally colder
areas especially northeast Oneida County, Delaware and Otsego,
Steuben Counties in NY and Susquehanna, Bradford, and Wayne Counties
in PA in the valleys could see temperatures into the mid and upper
30s. DESI shows a 30-60 percent change of minimums below 37F in
these areas. So we are messaging in social media and weather story
about some isolated pockets of frost in said normally colder areas.
Rest of forecast area should see lows in the low to mid 40s but
upper 40s to near 50F around the Finger Lakes to Syracuse area. We
adjusted mins tonight using "serp" tool for our normally colder
areas to the upper 30s. Not widespread enough temperatures for a
frost advisory in our forecast area. Then for Sunday into Monday we
expect valley fog each morning giving way to scattered cumulus in
the afternoon. Monday morning minimums likely won`t be as cold as
Sunday`s so we will use NBM.

For Tuesday an upper level low forms over our area with minimal
moisture, some of the deterministic models suggest some light QPF in
the afternoon. NBM does have some POPs between 6 and 11% which seems
appropriate. For Wednesday high pressure continues to hold its
ground and with a moderating trend each day since Sunday,
Temperatures could reach the low 80s in the valleys Wednesday.

Next system to impact our area is an upper level low/trough that
drops into the Great Lakes on Thursday and pushes another cold front
into NY and PA Thursday and Thursday night with showers likely.
Given the timing differences and the fact that Thursday is Day 6 we
will stick with NBM POPs. No reason to err as ensembles from euro,
euro AI, gefs and CMC also suggest precipitation reaching into NY
and PA by 00z Friday.

Once this front crosses the region Friday another shot of chilly air
advects into NY and PA with potentially unseasonably cold air and
some lake effect rain showers. How far south the coldest air makes
it is still in question and varying from run to run. NBM has lows
mainly in the 40s and low 50s and Highs in the 60s and low 70s which
is reasonable for next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions for the bulk of the terminal period with
afternoon cumulus expected and clear skies tonight. There will
be widespread valley fog Sunday morning between roughly 08z and
14z. KELM likely will drop to 1/4SM in FG during this time
period. Confidence is high given that all guidance has dense fog
at KELM. KRME also could see some IFR BR similar to this morning
as well. Confidence is lower here. After valley fog burns off
Sunday expect VFR and some cumulus.

Winds will be northwest around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
or so this afternoon and then become light and variable after
sunset and for the rest of the terminal period.

Outlook...
Sunday Night...VFR, except IFR/LIFR at KELM due to valley fog.
Monday...Morning Valley Fog burns off at KELM by 14z and rest of
day is VFR all terminals.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...some restrictions possible with showers moving into
the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJN
DISCUSSION...DJN
AVIATION...DJN