814
FXUS61 KBGM 181824
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue warming through Saturday before a
cold front brings showers and possible thunderstorms in the
afternoon. A brief cool down on Sunday will be followed by
another warming trend and chance of rain showers early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

A weak pseudo warm front will form along and just north of the
Thruway corridor tonight. Falling heights and a return of low
level moisture will increase chances for showers and sprinkles
for the Finger Lakes region and Western Mohawk Valley. Airmass
is quite dry here at this time and existing showers forming off
Lake Erie and riding into WNY should tend to dissipate as they
arrive here later this afternoon...but have included mention of
sprinkles before the better chances kick in later ahead of a
cold front.

Saturday will feature changeable conditions with a very mild
start and temperatures climbing into the 70s areawide...especially
after starting off from a mild overnight in the 50s. A cold
front will move through during the afternoon hours with showers
and scattered thunderstorms. Model instability shows a few
hundred units of CAPE, but the 0-6km and 0-3km shear will be
quite impressive. Generalized thunder is in the SPC outlook
which seems fine, but we`ll have to keep an eye on convective
parameters ahead of the front and supporting short wave.

Frontal passage occurs Saturday evening with showers ending and colder
air filtering in overnight on blustery NW winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

High pressure builds in for Sunday with seasonably cool
temperatures and no noted hazards expected. The pattern remains
transient heading into Monday with another low crossing through
the Great Lakes and warm frontal clouds and showers extending
into NY and PA. Overall...trends have been pulling back on much
shower activity during the day with higher probabilities
expected on Monday night with the trailing cold front. Temps
rebound on Monday but according to the latest NBM not quite as
warm as Saturday. Warm advection will be good so if the warm
sector clouds thin out more than planned, we may be nudging the
maxes up slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
215 PM Update...
This period looks generally benign in terms of any significant
or hazardous weather on the horizon. Anomalous high pressure
controls conditions through at least Thursday allowing for a
gradual warming trend with daytime temperatures reaching back
into the 60s and low 70s. Models diverge quite a bit in handling
the positioning and strength of the broad ridging after about
Wednesday and any subtle waves passing over the top with
individual deterministic guidance showing polar opposite
solutions in some time periods. Will run with the blended NBM
guidance on this lower confidence forecast which suggests the
next fairly robust probability for noticeable shower activity
comes Thursday night or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will continue into early Saturday morning with occasional
mid and high ceilings. A warm front passes through the region
this evening followed by the development of a strong low level
jet through the overnight. Top of inversion winds of 40-50 kts
are expected along with layers of +/- 20 KT LLWS at or below
FL020 with moderate to high confidence.

A cold frontal passage on Saturday will begin triggering showers
from north to south prior to 18Z...mainly for the northern 3
terminals of KITH-KSYR-KRME. Deeper convection and thunderstorms
will be possible after this period. Ceiling restrictions will be
likely mainly after 15Z.

Gusty S-SSW winds 15-25 kts into this evening ease a bit
overnight before becoming more SW and gusty again on Saturday
morning.


Outlook...

Saturday...Showers ending. Mainly MVFR conditions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Chance of showers and possible restrictions.

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB