883
FXUS61 KBGM 191920
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
320 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a prolonged period of dry weather
through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will also
be on a warming trend through Wednesday. A cold front will
bring the next chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday,
followed by seasonably cool weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM Update:

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather for the
foreseeable future. Similar to last night, an inversion looks to
set up, which will likely result in warmer temperatures on the
hilltops and cooler temperatures in the valleys. Lows are
generally expected to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Valley
fog is again expected to develop late tonight/early Sunday
morning, but otherwise clear skies are expected.

Similar to today, after morning fog dissipates, Sunday will
feature ample sunshine and highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Then a warmer airmass advects in Sunday night, which will allow
for lows to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s despite clear skies
once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

The short term will have strong upper level ridging in place
with well above average temperatures at 850 mb. This will help
push temperatures into the mid to upper 70s for the first half
of the week which is not too far from daily record highs. If the
sky remain cloudless with full day time heating and 850 mb
temperatures around 15C, we could make a run for the day time
record highs. Better moisture streaming in aloft will lessen the
efficiency of radiational cooling at night but still lowered
the overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night a few degrees
below the NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM Update...

The long term starts off with a fairly robust shortwave that is
digging into the Great Lakes region. Most models have this shortwave
moving fast and with dry air in place, precipitation will also be
anemic and brief. Strong cold air advection behind the shortwave
Thursday night into Friday could lead to some scattered lake effect
rain showers and high elevation snow showers. The 850 mb ridge
builds in fast as ridging returns so the window for lake effect
precipitation looks to be short post frontal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most terminals
through the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Sunday). The one
exception will once again be at KELM, where valley fog is
expected to bring airport min restrictions late tonight/early
Sunday morning before returning to VFR by 1430Z or so (similar
timing to this morning).

.Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog
possible each morning at KELM.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Occasional restrictions
possible with scattered rain showers, mainly at the Central NY
terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BJG