189
FXUS61 KBGM 200700
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain, cooler temperatures and unsettled weather
conditions continue across the area for the rest of today, with the
rain gradually tapering off tonight. Clouds and perhaps a stray
morning shower linger on Thursday, with breaks of sun by afternoon.
Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected Friday into Saturday. The
next front then brings renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday evening through Sunday, with cooler and showery weather
lingering into early next week as an upper level trough is overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

-Steady to locally heavy rainfall and much cooler temperatures are
expected today across the region. Total 36 hour rainfall totals are
forecast to range from 0.75 to 2" over Central NY, with 0.25 to
1.25" across NE PA. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall for parts of the area today into tonight.

-Hurricane Erin is forecast to have no direct impact on our local
area; likely staying out over the Atlantic, tracking east of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and west of Bermuda by tonight into
Thursday morning. Monitor the latest National Hurricane Center
outlooks and forecasts for more details. Use extreme caution if
heading to the Atlantic coastal beaches the next few days.

-A gradual warm up, with mainly dry weather expected Thursday
through Saturday. Can`t rule out a stray shower Thursday and
late on Saturday. Completely dry weather expected on Friday.

.Short Term /Through Friday Night/...
300 AM Update

Main story in this period will be the steady to locally heavy
rainfall today into this evening. A shortwave trough and associated
weak surface low is tracking across the area today. PWATs are
increasing into the 1.5 to 1.8" range and warm cloud layer depths
are jumping up to 12.5k ft at times. There is minimal instability,
all elevated with this system. Overall, trends in the CAMs show
periods of steady to locally heavy rainfall continuing much of the
day for Central NY, and drifting south into the Wyoming Valley
region of NE PA by this afternoon. There will be a stalled frontal
boundary in place extending from near Syracuse southeast Norwich,
Oneonta and Walton. To the northeast of this boundary temperatures
will remain quite cool today, even falling this afternoon as steady
rain and wet bulb cooling take effect. Looks for temperatures to
hold in the 50s all day across the western Catskills and just near
60 for the Mohawk Valley and northern Susquehanna region of NY.
Further south and west, it will still be cool and humid with highs
in the mid-60s to lower 70s.

Rainfall amounts range from 0.75 to 2" across Central NY by
tonight, and from 0.25 to 1.25 inches in NE PA. Flash flood
guidance is high due to the recent dry conditions, generally
ranging from 2.5 to 3.2 inches in 3 hours. With the lack of deep
convection and slightly falling pwats this afternoon, these
flash flood guidance rainfall rates are unlikely to be exceeded;
with that said much of the area is under a marginal (level 1 of
4) risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. For the most part this
should be a beneficial rain event, as much of the area had been
seeing well below average rainfall totals for the month of
August thus far. In fact through August 19th BGM had it`s driest
August on record with only 0.35 inches of rain recorded. SYR
had its 3rd driest August to date with 0.98 inches of rain
through August 19th...and AVP had its 4th driest August to date,
with 1.01 inches of rain through the 19th. This rain event
should push all three of our main climate sites out of the top
5, driest Augusts on record. Besides the rain, clouds and cool
temperatures today there will also be a breezy southeast wind at
6-15 mph most of the time.

Light rain and drizzle lingers tonight along the decaying, stalled
frontal boundary. It will be overcast with patchy higher elevation
fog possible, and cool with lows in the 50s for most locations.

Clouds and a few isolated showers or patchy drizzle lingers into
Thursday morning as the front washes out over the area. There will
still be some low and mid level moisture trapped over the region
with the northeast flow around the periphery of Hurricane Erin.
Eventually the flow turns northerly and gradually dries out the mid
levels, which should all the clouds to break for some afternoon
sun...especially from the Twin Tiers north into Central NY. Still on
the cooler side with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s and a steady
northeast wind up to 10 mph.

High pressure then builds over the area Thursday night, Friday and
Friday night as Hurricane Erin finally moves northeast away from the
Mid-Atlantic coast. This will mean mainly clear/sunny skies for our
area and seasonably warm temperatures. Lows will be in the 50s, with
highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s expected.

.Long Term /Saturday Through Wednesday...
300 AM Update

Saturday starts off as a mainly dry and mostly sunny day.
Temperatures warm up into the upper 70s to mid-80s areawide, but
humidity levels remain on the lower side. An upper level trough
arrives later in the evening, bringing a chance for scattered
showers and thunderstorms heading into the overnight period as well.
The cold front will be directly over the forecast area on Sunday,
bringing mostly cloudy conditions and showers/t`storms will be
likely. Deep layer southwesterly shear of 30-40 kts is possible,
which could help to develop some better organized convection if
instability can build over the region. This will be something to
watch moving forward.

Behind this front, a large, anomalous upper level trough moves
over the region for Monday, Tuesday and even Wednesday. This
feature will bring a return to cooler than average temperature,
more clouds, breezy west-northwest winds and scattered showers.
Some lake effect rain showers are even possible as 850mb
temperatures fall to around +5C Tuesday into Wednesday. For
Monday through Wednesday look for highs in the mid-60s to 70s
and overnight lows in the mid-40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions will be VFR to start but will then fall to MVFR and
Fuel Alt prior to 12z. After 12z, IFR and even LIFR ceilings
will be possible. Generally, a southeast wind does not result in
IFR conditions at AVP, so ceilings were capped at 1000 ft AGL
there. Blended short-range model guidance have low
probabilities for IFR at SYR and RME but there were also many
other models favoring at least IFR at those locations. For this
update, IFR was included but ceilings were capped at the upper
limit.

The rain will continue through the daytime hours and ends this
evening, though some isolated light showers may linger longer
into the evening. Since this rain will be light, visibilities
are not expected to be impacted much though brief heavier
showers may take visibilities down to around 2 miles at times.

Southeasterly winds will be sustained between 5 and 10 kts with
gusts of 15 to 20 kts. Winds become more easterly and lighter
this evening after the rain ends.

Outlook...

Thursday...Lingering restrictions and isolated showers in the
morning; Otherwise VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night.

Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring
occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...AJG/BTL