464
FXUS61 KBGM 141355
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
955 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week as a slow
moving upper level low moves through. This will bring periods of
rain showers and chances for thunderstorms by Thursday and
Friday. A cold front is then forecast to move through on Saturday
with another round of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler
weather with a few lingering showers is expected to round out
the weekend on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Some adjustments to pops with the mid-morning update as a fairly
organized cluster of showers pushes northward into CNY and NEPA
through the late morning.

635 AM Update

A tricky near term forecast, as an area of rain is moving
northward out of eastern PA, and is likely progged to overspread
much of the area this morning, into the afternoon. Some of the
CAMs such as the 06z 3km NAM tries to dissipate the steady rain
before it can make it north/northwest into Central NY. Opted to
maintain the current forecast which has support from the latest
HRRR runs, NBM PPI01 and current radar/satellite observations.
This still brings in categorical PoPs for rain showers all the
way north through the Twin Tiers, Susquehanna region and even
southern Finger Lakes region. Only minor change was to linger
higher PoPs 1-3 hours longer into the afternoon hours based on
the latest 09z HRRR.

400 AM Update

Unsettled, cooler and wet weather is expected across the region
today as a slow moving upper level low approaches from the Ohio
Valley region. Regional MRMS radar loop early this morning shows and
area of moderate to locally heavy rain across southeastern PA at
this time. This area of rain is moving slowly, but steadily
north...and based on the 06z HRRR...which seems to be handling it
best...the rain will arrive in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre between about 6-
8 AM this morning. The rain will keep moving north, reaching the NY
Southern Tier by 9-10 AM, before reaching Penn Yan--Cortland--
Norwich and Oneonta by 11am to noon. The rain is forecast to
continue pushing north, overspreading the I-90 corridor and Mohawk
Valley region in the afternoon. Increased expected rainfall amounts
above NBM/WPC by blending in the latest 00z ECMWF and 06z HRRR
data...This gave between five-hundreths to one-third of an inch of
rain across CNY; with one-third to two-thirds of an inch expected
across most of NE PA. After this round of rain, there should be a
break in the rain late this afternoon across most of the forecast
area. Model guidance is not showing an instability today, so no
thunderstorms are expected. It will however be cloudy to mostly
cloudy all day, with cooler daytime highs in the 60s expected for
most locations.

Tonight will feature some isolated rain showers and areas of fog
over the eastern slopes of the Poconos and Catskills. Mild overnight
lows in the mid to upper 50s expected.

The remnant upper level low/trough will move over the area on
Thursday. At the surface a warmer, southerly flow develops for the
forecast area. Scattered showers and isolated t`storms will be
around from late morning into the early afternoon...with coverage
increasing some during the late afternoon and evening hours. Have
high chance to low end likely PoPs in the forecast, staying close to
the NBM ensemble PoPs and QPF at this time. Deep layer shear will be
light and overall CAPE/instability modest (400-800 J/kg), so we are
expecting just general thunderstorms, with nothing organized or
severe expected at this time. With skies becoming partly sunny,
daytime highs will be warmer, likely reaching well into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM Update...

A trough will move east and will be replaced by a weak ridge of high
pressure as conditions will be mainly dry Thursday night. Moisture
will get trapped under a low inversion which will lead to low
stratus and fog developing overnight, especially with light winds
and mostly clear skies being present. Temperatures will fall into
the 50s and low 60s.

A frontal system then approaches the region early Friday morning.
Short range guidance is just starting to reach this part of the week
and showing a QLCS system with this front. The line of showers and
storms will quickly move through the region, exiting the region by
the evening hours. Given the early timing of these showers and
storms, there will not be much time for the environment to become
unstable so strong storms are not expected. Skies will be quick to
clear behind this line as ridging moves back into the region with
dry air. While the environment becomes more unstable following this
line passing through, little forcing is present to support
additional shower/t-storm activity. Highs are expected to be in the
mid 70s to low 80s though a slower moving system could lead to
temperatures being a few degrees cooler than forecasted.

There is some uncertainty on what exactly happens on Friday. While
QLCS systems are typically a problem for the area, the early arrival
would indicate mostly convective showers with embedded non-severe
thunderstorms. NAM model soundings do not show favorable conditions
for strong storms until after the line has already passed through,
and as mentioned, little to no additional showers/storms are
expected to develop then. SPC has the region just in general thunder
and this seems reasonable for now until more short range guidance
covers this timeframe.

Overnight, conditions should be mostly dry to start though low
chance PoPs is maintained in the forecast for any lingering showers.
An EML does begin to move in ahead of a stacked low pressure system
that will move into the Great Lakes and showers associated with this
system will begin to move in from the west late Friday night/early
Saturday morning. With the EML present, isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible. Friday night will be mild as lows will be in the
50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
400 AM Update...

A cold front associated with the aforementioned stacked low will
move through the region Saturday. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will kick off the weekend as the front moves through.
Both modeled instability and shear are favorable for the potential
of strong thunderstorms, though similarly to Friday, timing of this
system will be key. Saturday will be another warm day but a colder
airmass begins to enter the region Saturday night as the upper low
moves into the Northeast. Showery conditions continue into the
second half of the weekend as the low spins just north of the
region. Southern portions of the region may stay dry as shower
chances are mainly over CNY.

Early next week remains uncertain as an omega block develops over
CONUS. Some guidance, like the ECMWF, keep the low in the general
area through Monday which would support additional rain showers.
Meanwhile, guidance more like the GFS push this low just far enough
east to allow the dry air to move in. For now, NBM guidance was
favored which favors a dry start to the work week.

The weekend will start out warm with highs in the 70s. However as
colder air moves in, temperatures will only max out in the 50s and
60s. Forecasted lows follow a similar trend, going from 50s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
640 AM Update

Variable conditions across the area currently; ranging from VFR
at SYR and RME...with MVFR elsewhere.

RME is expected to drop to MVFR around 14z this morning, then
fall to MVFR fuel alt CIGs the late evening and overnight hours.
There is a chance for a few light rain showers here.

SYR looks to remain generally VFR for the rest of this morning
with the downsloping southeast winds. CIGs are eventually
forecast to drop to MVFR by around 15-16z, then perhaps MVFR
Fuel alt for the late evening and overnight hours. There will
be some light rain showers and/or drizzle around at times here.

ITH is seeing MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs this morning, and this should
continue through the day. Rain likely arrives by 14-18z, with
some tempo MVFR vsbys possible. IFR CIGs are then expected to
develop around or just after sunset into the overnight hours.

ELM is forecast to see continued MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs this
morning, along with occasional MVFR VSBYs are steadier light
rain moves in around 13z. MVFR CIGs should continue through the
day here, before dropping back to borderline Below Alt Mins or
perhaps even IFR into the overnight hours.

BGM will see borderline IFR/MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs continue
this morning and through much of the day. Steadier rain is
expected here by mid morning, with mainly dry conditions later
in the afternoon and evening. IFR CIGs should develop around
sunset, before dropping to Below Alt Mins for the overnight
and early Thursday morning period.

AVP will see MVFR or MVFR Fuel Alt through most of the taf
period, as downsloping east-southeast winds continue off the
Pocono plateau. Steady rain will move in this morning, and could
be heavy at times with IFR vsbys a possibility between about
12-16z. Fuel alt CIGs linger the rest of the day and evening,
before falling back to IFR overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated
thunder possible, along with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MJM