358
FXUS61 KBGM 190645
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
145 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing by to the south will bring some light rain
and high elevation snow to NE PA early this morning. High
pressure building in later in the day will lead to quiet
conditions through Thursday, then our next chance of
predominately rain showers returns Friday into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A quiet but chilly start to the day across CNY under clear to
partly skies. Farther to the south across NE PA, it will be a
bit trickier through 12Z as a quick-moving and weak area of low
pressure currently over northern West Virginia slides by to our
south and east. The northern edge of the precipitation with this
feature will bring a light rain/snow mix to the area, with
light snow reserved for the higher terrain. Temperatures around
the I-81 and I-84 corridors and the Poconos are currently
running a few degrees warmer than NBM, so the NBM90th percentile
was blended in over the next several hours in this area. With
dew points well down into the 20s, precipitation initially
showing up on radar will be evaporating and this evaporational
cooling will help lower temps. Wet bulb temperatures in the
Wyoming Valley are expected to be in the mid 30s, allowing for
much of the precipitation that does reach the ground to be in
the form of rain, while the surrounding higher terrain is
expected to have wet bulb temperatures at or just below
freezing, especially in the Poconos and higher terrain of
southern and eastern Luzerne County. This will allow for snow or
a rain/snow mix in this area. Snowfall amounts in the high
terrain will be less than an inch.

As this system departs, high pressure will build in for the
rest of the day. This surface high will move overhead tonight
and gradually move east Thursday. Skies are expected to be
partly to mostly sunny by this afternoon and a mix of sun and
clouds is featured Thursday. Highs this afternoon range from
upper 30s to the mid 40s while lows tonight will be mainly in
the 20s. With the surface high to our east Thursday, the flow
will become more southwesterly and while much of the area is
expected to be in the low to mid 40s, many of the valley areas
along the Southern Tier and into NE PA are expected to reach the
upper 40s and perhaps near 50 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A couple of features will be monitored Thursday night through
early Saturday. An upper trough moving over the northern Great
Lakes Thursday night is expected to pass by to our north Friday
but the surface cold front with this feature may bring a few
showers Friday into Friday night. Farther to the south and west,
a shortwave is expected to eject out over the central and
southern Plains with a developing surface low. As these features
slide east and tap into some Gulf moisture, rain showers are
expected to reach the mid- Atlantic region late week. There is
some uncertainty as to how far north this moisture spreads as
some deterministic and ensemble guidance has the bulk of this
precipitation passing by to the south and possibly clipping NE
PA, while other solutions spread moisture all the way up into
the Twin Tiers and CNY through Friday night/early Saturday AM.
Friday is expected to be a milder day with highs in the upper
40s to the low and even mid 50s in some places, which would keep
precipitation in the area during the day Friday predominately
rain. West to northwesterly flow Saturday cools temperatures
back down mainly into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While surface high pressure looks to build in for the second
half of the weekend, there are a few short waves that look to
move through the region embedded in predominately zonal flow
aloft into early next week. This will keep at least a low chance
of precipitation around through Tuesday. With daytime highs
Sunday through Tuesday projected to be in the mid 40s to around
50 degrees (even some lower 50s possible in valley locations
Monday), any isolated to scattered showers during the daytime
would be rain, while a rain/snow mix is possible at night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the CNY terminals throughout
the TAF period.

Forecasted conditions at AVP have improved as dry air currently
over the area combined with warmer temps and precipitation
tracking more south than originally thought should keep
conditions mostly VFR through the night. There will be a chance
for a few periods of MVFR conditions at AVP between 09z and
11z as snow may mix in with the expected light rain showers.
Prevailing MVFR clouds should remain until 15z with some
drizzle possibly sticking around into the morning hours. VFR
will prevail for the rest of the TAF period.


Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Sunday...Off and on periods of rain
during the day and snow/wintry mix overnight with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC