383
FXUS61 KBGM 031841
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
241 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning much warmer today with highs rising into the 70s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around mainly in
the morning. Generally dry and seasonable weather returns on
Friday, before another slow moving frontal system arrives with
periods of rain expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

230 PM Update...

Warm conditions across the entire forecast area this afternoon.
However, a cold front will be pushing through from NW to SE
through the late afternoon and evening, with some isolated to
scattered showers and cooler temperatures behind it. This front
will drop south and slow down exiting the area, possibly
stalling across or just south of NE PA. A weak wave of low
pressure is expected to move along the boundary later tonight and
this will lead to a chance of showers from the Twin Tiers
south. While there is some uncertainty in the placement of the
boundary, some guidance suggests that the best chance for
showers will be from around Scranton on southward. Lows tonight
will range from the upper 30s to the upper 40s.

Any showers will clear out Friday morning as surface high
pressure builds over the region. Tomorrow should be mostly dry
with partly to mostly sunny skies across CNY, however clouds may
linger in NE PA, but should give way to some afternoon
sunshine. High temperatures will be cooler tomorrow, but still
be near or above average, ranging from the lower to mid 50s
across CNY and from the mid 50s to the lower 60s from the
Southern Tier on south.

Our next frontal system will push in from the SW late Friday
night. This will bring an increase in clouds and likely showers
will push into the region early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

230 PM Update...

Very little change was made to the short term forecast. Models
remain in good agreement with widespread rain showers on
Saturday. Quite a bit of spread still exists among the model
guidance Sunday night into Monday morning. The GFS has a strong
wave develop along the stalled frontal boundary and cold air in
place. This wave would move across the region Sunday night into
Monday morning and could bring near advisory level snowfall from
the Twin Tiers on northward to the I90 Corridor. Euro pushes the
boundary too far to our south and doesn`t develop a wave of low
pressure like the GFS solution. So with this update, stuck close
to NBM solution for now and will monitor how things trend over
the next day or two.

Previous Discussion...

A wave of low pressure that tracks across the northern Ohio
Valley Friday night, then near Lake Ontario on Saturday. The
steadiest rain and highest rainfall totals are expected to be
across Central NY with this system. Current forecasts indicated
between a quarter to half inch of rain across NE PA, with a half
to one inch expected across Central NY. There could be a bit of
a break in the steady rain Saturday afternoon, but there will
likely still be showers around, and even a slight chance for a
thunderstorm as the warm front/sector will be nearby across
Central PA and western NY. It will be seasonable with lows 35-45
and highs mainly in the 50s Saturday afternoon.

The next wave of low pressure rides northeast along the stalled
frontal boundary Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring another
period of rain to the region, with showers lingering much of the day
on Sunday. This round of rain looks to bring another quarter to
three-quarters of an inch of rain to the area. There will again be
slight chances for thunderstorms with some minor instability
present. NE PA may break into the warm sector out ahead of the low
pressure wave, with highs potentially reaching well into the 60s
here...it will be cooler for CNY, in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The
first cold front slowly presses southeast and through the area
Sunday night, with any lingering showers starting to mix with snow
as overnight lows drop into the low to mid-30s. Total rainfall over
the weekend is progged to range from around half an inch in the
Wyoming Valley, up to 1.50 inches for our north/west counties;
Steuben northeast to Onondaga and Oneida counties. WPC does have
this area (and most of CNY) under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall, so this will be something to monitor in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

240 PM Update...

A cold and unsettled pattern still setting up for next week.
Model guidance is in poor agreement with the overall details of
several potential disturbances through the week, however, they
do agree that this period will be cooler than average with
potential for some wintry precipitation. GFS is likely to get
some attention for the end of the week with the 12Z run, as it
has a coastal low bringing significant snowfall to the forecast
area. However, there is very little agreement with ensembles and
with a highly amplified pattern like this, there is bound to be
large differences among the guidance and a lot of disagreement.
For now, went straight NBM due to the uncertainty at this time.


Previous Discussion...

Much colder, showery and winter like weather pattern expected for
much of this longer term period.

Monday will start off will a short break in the shower activity as a
weak 1015mb surface high moves over the area. Temperatures aloft
cool to -5 to -8C through the day so highs will be cooler...only in
the mid-40s to lower 50s. There is a slight chance for a few
showers, but it is trending mainly dry with partly cloudy skies  and
steady northwest winds 8-15 mph.

A compact, potent low pressure system and associated cold front is
forecast to quickly move into the area Monday night and early
Tuesday. This front will have very cold air behind it, with 850mb
temperatures falling to around -13C by  Tuesday. Snow showers are
likely along and behind the front as a closed 700/500mb low rotates
over the region. Snow squalls and convective snow showers are also
possible late Monday night and Tuesday as 0-2km low level lapse
rates reach 9.5 to 10C/km, MUCAPE reaches 200 J/kg and 925mb
temperatures fall to -8C by Tuesday evening. This will combine
with plenty of moisture in the low levels and 30-40kt winds in
the lowest 500 meter layer to induce snow squall parameters of
4-8 over the region. This will be something to watch closely and
any impacts will depend on surface temperatures. It will
certainly feel a lot more like winter on Tuesday, with NW winds
gusting up to 35 mph and daytime highs in the 30s for most
locations.

Behind this system a cold, moist northwest flow pattern
continues on the back side of the slow moving upper level
low/trough Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will keep snow
showers (even some lake effect) in the forecast as 850mb
temperatures bottom out around -16C Wednesday morning. This
should be enough of a lake to 850mb differential to allow for a
sold stream of lake effect snow showers into the region. Tuesday
night is likely the coldest night with lows 20-25F for most
locations. Highs will be lucky to reach into the 40s Wednesday
afternoon with the cold air aloft still in place.

The area finally dries out Wednesday night and Thursday as high
pressure moves overhead. After a chilly start in the morning
temperatures are forecast to rebound well into the 50s and lower 60s
by Thursday afternoon under partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR to VFR ceilings today with the chance of a few showers this
afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes through the region.
Heavier round of rain showers will push in from the SW late
tonight and may bring restrictions to AVP, but confidence is too
low at this time, so kept VFR for now.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Periods of rain likely with
associated restriction.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...MPK