429
FXUS61 KBGM 121355
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
955 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, more seasonable weather expected today. A weak disturbance
brings a light mix of rain and snow this evening into tonight with
minimal accumulations. The warmer weather returns Thursday and
Friday, with chance for a few showers by Saturday. Widespread rain
is expected for Sunday with very warm weather continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
940 AM Update...

Sunny with high cirrus clouds streaming over the region this
morning. Forecasted temps remain on track.

Adjusted PoPs with this update as it looks like most of the
precipitation should start to hit the ground after 06pm. The
afternoon will provide a well mixed boundary layer with very dry
surface dewpoints. This will make it very hard for the initial
showers that develop along the approaching front to reach the
ground, and they will be more of an atmosphere saturater. Once
saturation reaches the surface, temps should drop quickly,
especially outside the valleys as wetbulbing occurs. Rain should
still mix in in the valleys but mostly snow is expected above
1000ft in elevation. Up to 0.5 inches of snow should fall in the
higher elevations along and east of I-81, with an inch possible
across the highest elevations of the Catskills.

415 AM Update

Starting off dry, partly sunny and cool today. Clouds will gradually
increase heading into this afternoon, along with a light east wind.
High temperatures will reach the upper 30s to 40s over the region,
except low 50s for the Wyoming Valley.

A weak wave, with increasing frontogenesis will ride along the
stalled surface boundary heading into this evening. Confidence in
the specifics of the forecast remain lower than usual, due to
some fairly big model differences.

Used a blend of WPC guidance, NBM and some deterministic
NAM/GFS/ECMWF for the QPF forecast in this time period.
Uncertainties exist in the placement/locations of the relatively
narrow frontogenetic band, and the amount of QPF produced under
the band. Based on BUFKIT GFS and NAM soundings, it appears the
atmosphere will be very dry before the precipitation breaks (or
attempts to) break out over the region. The latest 00z ECMWF
actually keeps the entire area dry tonight...with the CMC-Regional
showing the precipitation much further north across the I-90
corridor. The latest 06z HRRR is also trending lighter/more
scattered with the rain and snow, and it looks a little further
north as well.

With all of this said, the current official forecast now
indicated high chance to low end likely PoPs across and just north
of the NY Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and upper Susquehanna
region of NY. QPF totals up to a tenth (0.10) of an inch are in the
forecast. Thermal profiles support wet snow, or some rain mixing in
for the lower valleys as it moves through. Any snow accumulations
will be wet, slushy, and mainly on grassy/colder surfaces. Up to 1
inch is possible in the higher terrain north and northeast of
Binghamton...especially above 1500 feet elevation. We will need to
closely monitor the latest trends in the near term, CAMs guidance to
evaluate how this system will ultimately impact the area. The very
latest trends seem to be pointing to a drier, less impactful system.
Otherwise, outside of the light snow/rain it will be mostly cloudy
with lows in the upper 20s to mid-30s tonight.

Confidence is increasing that Thursday will be dry, with a mix of
sun and clouds. A mild southerly flow takes hold, especially along
and west of I-81...further east it is more of a maritime influenced
east-southeast flow. Therefore, looks for highs well into the 50s
west of I-81 Thursday afternoon, but in the mid to upper 40s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM Update...

Weak but persistent warm air advection under a building upper
level ridge will help lead to a significant warming trend into
the weekend. Temperatures will be mid spring like with highs
near 60 and overnight lows in the 40s. The low levels look dry
so chances of precipitation Thursday night into Friday night is
unlikely. Saturday, deeper low level moisture arrives with
precipitable water values increasing to around an inch. Chances
of precipitation were increased at higher elevations and
ridgetops as forecast soundings are favorable for upslope rain
showers and drizzle well ahead of the main precipitation
arriving later in the day Saturday or Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM Update...

The long term starts active with a deep trough moving into the
east coast and a strong area of low pressure progressing through
the Great Lakes region into Southern Canada. Strong southerly
flow will lead to gusty winds Saturday night and Sunday. With
Precipitable water values getting over an inch in ensemble means
for both EPS and GEFS, showers will be widespread Sunday with
potential for heavy rainfall as the front associated with the
strong low pressure system moves in. Timing of the front is
uncertain and ranges from Sunday mid day to overnight Sunday.
Looking at 700 to 500 mb lapse rates, there is going to be some
steeper lapse rates ahead of the front that could exceed 6C/km
with some marginal CAPE. The better instability is south but if
the higher dew points can advect northward with a little bit of
sun and an afternoon frontal passage, there is potential for a
few severe thunderstorms given high probability (>90%) of 0-6km
shear greater than 50 knots and even a 10% chance of 100 knots
of shear.

Behind the front, a brief shot of cold air moves in with a few
snow showers possible at higher elevations Monday before warm
air advection begins again Monday night. Temperatures return
above average by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the daytime hours
today. Some SCT to occasionally BKN clouds have develop over
portions of Central NY early this morning, with cloud bases
around 020. These could impact ITH and perhaps BGM, mainly prior
to 12z this morning.

MVFR CIGs and VSBYs begin to develop at or INVOF ELM, BGM and
ITH around 00z this evening as some scattered rain and snow
showers develop. The latest model trends are drier, with lighter
precipitation with this system. Therefore only some borderline
MVFR/VFR visibilities are forecast. The current forecast keeps
the snow south and away from SYR and RME, however some MVFR CIGs
look to reach these two terminals for a few hours overnight into
the predawn hours Thursday. AVP is expected to remain VFR for
the entire taf period.

Winds will be turning east-northeast during the day less than 10
kts. Surface winds then turn easterly this evening around 5
kts, and even east- southeast at the end of this taf period.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Lingering ceiling restrictions
through Friday morning; then becoming VFR by Friday afternoon.
(Low to moderate confidence).

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected; slight chance for afternoon rain
showers though. (Moderate Confidence)

Sunday...Restrictions expected with heavy rain showers and
possibly a thunderstorm. (Moderate Confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...JTC/MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MJM