607
FXUS61 KBGM 292309
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
709 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure remains in place with hot and muggy
conditions lasting through tomorrow with heat advisories in
place into tomorrow evening. Heavy rain is possible on Thursday
as an area of low pressure moves through. Behind this low, a
prolonged period of cooler and drier weather begins Friday and
last into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
215 PM Update...

High pressure with low amplitude ridging in place today into
tomorrow keeps the region dry but hot. Given broad subsidence
from being under the front right quadrant of a jet streak will
suppress convection despite 2000 to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE
developing. BUF`s balloon launch this morning showed some good
mid level lapse rates and water vapor imagery does show these
steeper lapse rates moving through with the warmer temperatures.
Given that there is a modified elevated mixed layer moving
through it is hard to have complete confidence that there wont
be a stray thunderstorm to develop later today. If one does,
there is a good chance it would be on the stronger side with
hail and good microburst/downburst potential.

Tomorrow will be similar to today with dew points potentially a
few degrees warmer with high temperatures a couple degrees
cooler so apparent temperatures will be almost the same. Given
that there is a subtle 500 mb shortwave and some falling
heights, the capping inversion will weaken through the day with
thunderstorms likely developing given 2500 to 2500 J/kg of CAPE
and minimal capping. Shear looks good, at 30 to 40 knots, so an
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, especially for the
Southern Tier and southward where conditions are most favorable.
Hodographs are largely strait with little turn so strait line
winds and small hail will be the main concern. Better shear is
farther north near the shortwave but forecast soundings are
fairly capped and surface dew points are not as high so
instability is lower as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
215 PM Update...

The main concern in the short term is the evolution of an MCS
in the plains that develop late tonight into Wednesday. Models
have honed in better on an MCV developing from the MCS and
moving into the Northeast. With deep moisture in place and warm
cloud depths over 10,000 feet, heavy rain is a concern. Luckily
with how dry it has been recently, rivers are running low and
soils are fairly dry in the top 6 inches so it can absorb a bit
of the rain. Rainfall rates could approach 2 to 3 inches per
hour in the stronger cells but flow is fast so storms will be
moving rather than sitting over any area for too long. The
bigger concern will be with training as there is good
frontogenesis at 850 mb associated with the MCV moving through.
A strip of heavy rain is possible along the fgen band as it will
be orientated parallel to the flow, keeping a long line of
storms traversing over the same spot for hours. Though much of
this is based on the convective evolution of the MCV which
models handle poorly as there is very little in the way of
synoptic forcing so confidence is low so no flood watches have
been issued. They may be needed if the evolution of the MCS does
end up developing as modeled but odds are against that.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM Update...

Once this MCV is through, a broad, long wave trough digs into
the northeast with the ridge retrograding back into the western
US. This will bring an extended period of cooler weather with NW
flow out of Canada. After spending much of the last month with
dew points at 60 or higher with just brief breaks in the
humidity, it looks like Friday into next week will have dew
points in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Some
guidance is hinting at fog again at ELM but confidence is low as
it looks like conditions will remain too dry. However, with the
forecasted low temp right at the crossover temp, the tempo for
MVFR visibilities remains in this update. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop late tomorrow afternoon. AVP will
have the best chance of seeing a shower but confidence was too
low to include a mention of rain at this time. Winds will be
light and variable through tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds
stay variable but will be mainly out of the west to northwest
after 15z Wednesday.


Outlook...

Wednesday night...Lingering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
may result in occasional restrictions, especially around KAVP.

Thursday...Scattered showers or thunderstorms, especially in
the afternoon and evening, can result in occasional
restrictions, mainly at KAVP, KBGM, KELM and KITH.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ023>025-055-056-
     062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL