275
FXUS61 KBGM 111014
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
614 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place today and tomorrow with
temperatures remaining warm. Humidity is lower today but muggier
weather returns tomorrow. A front moves in Wednesday with the
first widespread chance of rain in a while before drying back
out later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With a strong ridge of high pressure in place and 500 mb
heights >590 dm high temperatures will be reaching the low to
mid 90s today and tomorrow. Forecast soundings all have very dry
air above the boundary layer so dew points this afternoon will
mix down as it warms up with the heat index likely staying in
the 80s. Tonight, the ridge axis is moving off to the east with
weak return flow setting up though moisture advecting in will be
delayed until later in the day on Tuesday. With higher dew
points advecting in at 925 mb to 850 mb on Tuesday, it will be
harder to mix out the dew points so muggier weather is expected
with max heat indexes in the low to mid 90s. Forecast soundings
do not have much capping by the mid afternoon and with the
better moisture advecting in, chances of rain showers and
thunderstorms may need to be introduced in future forecast
updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly amplified shortwave trough swings through Wednesday
bringing our first widespread chance at rainfall to most of the
region. Timing of the frontal passage has trended earlier so
much of the day is looking cloudy with widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Shear is around 30 knots so if there can
be some sun to help destabilize the atmosphere more than
modeled then a few stronger storms may be possible in the late
morning or early afternoon if the surface front can slow down.
Precipitable water values are fairly high, in the 1.5 to 2 inch
range so any thunderstorm that does develop will contain heavy
rain.

High pressure and some broad ridging builds back in late
Wednesday into Thursday with dry air advecting back into the
region. The end of the week is looking cooler and drier once
again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging remains in place into the weekend and early next week
with 500 mb heights once again approaching 590 dm. Temperatures
will slowly warm back up. Overall, ensemble 500 mb height
anomalies try to keep a ridge axis in the Northeast or in the
vicinity so precipitation chances remain low this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will bring VFR conditions with mostly clear skies
and light winds through the period.


Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
a cold front can lead to occasional restrictions.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MPK