687
FXUS61 KBGM 262016
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
416 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front keeps showers around this evening with
isolated thunderstorms possible across the western Twin Tiers
and Wyoming Valley. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Saturday. Temperatures will continue to trend
cooler through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM Update...

A shortwave is moving through the region this afternoon as a
stationary frontal boundary sets up as northeasterly flow runs into
southwesterly flow. This convergence keeps scattered showers in the
forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. Main threat will
be the potential for flash flooding over the Wyoming Valley,
Northern Tier of PA and the Central Southern Tier of NY as the
boundary develops over this region. A round of showers will
progress from the northwest to southeast as the afternoon
unfolds. Model soundings show pwat values up to 2 inches along
with a warm cloud layer ranging 10,000 to 12,000 feet,
suggesting heavy rain is a strong possibility. WPC also has a
slight risk for excessive rainfall over the the south western
portion of our area. A flash flood watch was issued for this
area from 12 PM through midnight.

These showers will also be convective in nature. Model sounding show
CAPE values ranging 900 to 1,500 J/Kg. Despite decent CAPE values in
northeast PA, bulk shear values range 20-25 knots. Sounding profiles
do show an inverted v suggesting winds mixing down to the
surface with storms that do develop. With southeasterly flow
there is a marine layer creeping into the Pocono mountain
region. This could cause storms to intensify, but confidence on
this is low. Mainly expecting potential for damaging winds with
any strong to severe storms that form. SPC has most of our area
in a general thunder with a marginal risk for severe storms
over northeast PA. The bottom of Luzerne county gets clipped by
a slight risk. Thunderstorms should push south of the area by
mid-evening. Some light scattered rain showers will be possible
north of the Southern Tier overnight. Lows will vary based on
which airmass is over the region, upper 50s to low 60s over the
eastern portion of the region and low to mid 60s over the
western portion.

Friday`s weather looks to be active again with the stationary front
lifting north as it gets picked up by a low pressure system moving
into the Great Lakes. How far north and east the front moves will
determine temperatures across the area. Some guidance keeps the
front over the far western portion of the CWA while others bring it
into the I-81 corridor. Temps east of the front will be in the upper
60s to low 70s while west of the front will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop as a trough moves in from the west, with convection
developing west of the front and rain showers east of the front. How
far east the convection develops will be determined by where the
stationary front eventually sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
415 PM Update...

Saturday is looking unsettled as an area of low pressure passes
to the north. Right now, there is a good chance that the region
is in the warm sector of the low with heavy rains along the
warm front staying north. Some ensembles to have that warm front
farther south along the I-90 corridor which will need to be
watched as the ground is wet so additional heavy rain will
increase the flash flood risk. In the warm sector of the storm,
Ensemble probabilities of >1000 J/kg of CAPE as well as more
than 30 Knots of 0-6 km shear is around 30 to 50% along and east
of I-81 for Saturday. Forecast hodographs do show some
curvature of the low level winds with height so all severe types
are possible if there can be enough heating ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Saturday night into Sunday, high pressure builds into the
region with drier air advecting in with precipitation chances
near 0 into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 PM Update...

The long term remains active with Monday starting off with
another strong ridge builds in with 500 mb heights back up over
585 dm. High temperatures will be pushing back into the 90s and
dew points could be back up into the 70s so heat headlines may
be needed again. Broad troughing into the middle of next week
keeps frequent passages of shortwaves. Chances of precipitation
were kept higher in the afternoons with day time heating leading
to instability. Passage of shortwaves will also increase the
shear so if they can come through in the afternoons or early
evenings there is potential for isolated to scattered severe
storms mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions hold for a few more hours at some sites.
Otherwise MVFR restrictions are possible as rain showers
continue to move in this afternoon and continue through this
evening. There will be a chance for thunderstorms at ITH/ELM/AVP
this afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to include IFR
at these terminals during the thunderstorm period, but if a cell
with heavy rain moves over the terminal, a brief period of IFR
is possible. MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings remain at all terminals
through the overnight hours with scattered rain showers at
ITH/SYR/RME. Fog is expected to form at ELM, with IFR conditions
through the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR. There will be isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions but
terminals will be mostly VFR.

Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms can lead to
associated restrictions.

Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038-039-043-044-
     047.
NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...ES/JTC