073
FXUS61 KBGM 140007
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
807 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight and
tomorrow. Quieter conditions and warmer temperatures return at the
end of the week and into the start of the weekend. A frontal system
will move through on Sunday with rain and cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

- Front pushes through this afternoon with showers and storms
continuing through Thursday
- Trending warmer through the first half of the weekend, next
frontal system moves through on Sunday
-Becoming fall-like next week with low chances for showers,
especially Tuesday

Discussion:

A slow moving cold front will continue to push through this
afternoon and evening. The band of showers from this morning has now
transitioned to scattered thunderstorms. The environment is rich
with moisture as PWATs ware 1.8 and higher. With these storms,
one concern will be heavy rain, though with how dry it has
been, any localized hydro issues would likely be limited to the
urban areas. Strong storms are not expected today even though
models were showing CAPE values as high as 2000 J/kg this
afternoon. Shear is lacking though, as are the mid-level lapse
rates which has been a common theme for the late summer
convective systems. Lightning network observations have shown
that these storms are producing a fair amount of lightning, so
that will be another concern especially for those with any
outdoor plans. Models try to kick off some more showers late
today though forcing does not look to be too great. For PoPs, a
blend of the NBM, HREF, and Conshort was used. Behind this
front, temperatures have fallen over CNY but are beginning to
recover as skies are becoming partly cloudy.

Some lingering showers will be possible tonight. With the added
moisture and light winds, patchy to areas of fog is expected. The
one uncertainty is cloud cover as skies will be slow to clear out.
Despite this, the best chances for fog will be where it rains or
has rained today. Temperatures will be mild, only falling into
the upper 50s and 60s.

A weak shortwave will move through tomorrow and may kick off a few
showers and thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be weak, so
any thunderstorms that can develop will be sub-severe. Otherwise,
high pressure will begin to build in and lead to quieter conditions
through at least the first half of the weekend. Temperatures will
also begin to trend warmer through Saturday with the potential
return of 90s in urban and valley locations. Conditions may
become slightly humid with dewpoints in the 60s but those would
be low enough to keep heat index values below advisory criteria.

Another frontal system will move through on Sunday and bring the
next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Long
range guidance show some instability but weak shear once again,
though it is too early to determine if stronger storms will be
possible. This front will help bring temperatures back down into
the 70s and 80s with fall-like conditions by midweek. Some
showers will be possible on Monday but chances look better on
Tuesday as the next system moves into the region. If model
guidance stays consistent with the timing of this system, this
should keep what is currently Tropical Storm Erin over the
Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms have been winding down for the most
part across the area. There is one storm, which if it holds
together, could impact AVP over the next hour or two with brief
restrictions. Areas of fog are expected to develop later
tonight, with mainly MVFR/IFR restrictions possible around most
of the terminals, generally between 06-12Z. Confidence is
highest for restrictions at ELM where visibility is expected to
fall to less than 1/2 mile. VFR conditions are then expected
through much of the rest of the TAF period. There is a low
chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm around AVP tomorrow,
especially in the afternoon, but confidence is low to include
any restrictions at this time.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/t-storms along
another frontal passage.

Monday... Mainly VFR; low chance of showers/t-storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...DK/MWG