595
FXUS61 KBGM 230529
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1229 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region this evening with partly
cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures. A weak frontal system
moves in tonight with light snow showers returning north of the
NY Thruway. Light showers continue into Sunday morning over
north-central NY with minimal accumulations expected. A warming
trend allows temperatures to rise above freezing, and into the
40s for many locations into next week, with on and off shower chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
620 PM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track this evening. Temperatures are
running just a couple degrees warmer than the current forecast,
so aligned hourly temperatures with the latest observations and
trends. Current water vapor imagery shows weak shortwave
pushing across Southern Ontario that will be moving into
northern New York over the next few hours. Expecting this wave
to kick off some light snow showers, mostly north of the NYS
thruway through the early morning hours. Snow totals will be
light, with 1 to 3 inches possible in Northern Oneida County,
but generally less than inch across Southern Oneida, Northern
Madison and Onondaga County.

313 PM Update

Quiet weather continues this evening with partly cloudy skies
over the region. A front pushes in from the north after midnight
bringing a renewed chance for snow showers across the southern
Tug Hill Plateau region...eventually making it south to the NY
Thruway corridor during the predawn hours early Sunday morning.
The light snow should not push any further south overnight, with
the Twin Tiers and Northeast PA remaining dry and mostly cloudy.
Overnight lows are seasonable in the upper 10s to lower 20s.
Winds remain light west-southwest, under 10-12 mph

Sunday features a few lingering snow showers off lake Ontario as
the boundary layer flow shifts west-northwest and 850mb
temperatures hover around -9C...there should initiate a weak
lake effect response. Any snow accumulations overnight into
Sunday morning will be light in our CWA; a dusting to locally 2
inches north of I-90. The Twin Tiers and NE PA start the day off
with some breaks of sun in the morning, but clouds increase
Sunday afternoon, leading to mainly cloudy skies over the
region. Westerly winds are light between 6-15 mph and
temperatures remain steady, with highs in the upper 20s over
the higher elevations to upper 30s in the valleys of the Twin
Tiers and NE PA. It will be dry and seasonably chilly Sunday
night under weak high pressure. Clouds gradually decrease
overnight and low temperatures dip down into the upper 10s to
mid-20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

Monday starts off with a shortwave passing to the north with
warm air advection through PA and NY. With 850 mb temperatures
warming above 0C and dry air advecting in, there will be some
sunshine as well. This will push high temperatures to the
warmest that we have seen since at least early January or even
the warmest temperatures of the year so far. Given that there is
some low level moisture advection and some models have surface
dew points rising to or above freezing, the development of low
stratus will need to be monitored as that can limit warming if
we do get some advection fog or low stratus to develop. With
zonal flow persisting Monday night into Tuesday, temperatures
remain on the warmer side. Another shortwave passes through on
Tuesday with more stratus likely as well as a chance at some
scattered rain showers. Temperatures and dew points dont look to
get warm enough to experience a lot of snow melt and QPF
amounts are light, but some rises in the rivers will need to be
watched. Ice is still pretty thick in spots so too much of a
rise may break things up a bit, especially after a warmer day
Monday that could weaken the ice. Cold air advection on the back
side of the shortwave is pretty weak with the flow remaining
mostly zonal so temperatures dont fall much below freezing
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM update...

The long term is pretty active with zonal flow bringing in a
shortwave almost every day but the pattern is not conducive to
anything major into next weekend. Day time highs will stay
average to above average into Friday with overnight lows only
falling to around freezing. Friday has a deeper trough that
tries to dig into the Great Lakes region with an associated
surface low. Most models and ensembles have the low developing
in the central US and moving quickly through the Northeast. The
track remains uncertain on whether it is closer to the coast for
more snow or an inland track keeping us warmer with rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions across most of the area tonight. Some light snow
showers should make their way into SYR and RME, bringing MVFR
ceilings through the overnight and into the morning hours. A
wind shift from westerly to northwesterly tomorrow late morning
will allow for lake effect clouds over ITH and BGM to drop
ceilings to MVFR into the afternoon hours. Confidence was not
high enough to include MVFR ceilings at ELM. Otherwise AVP is
expected to remain VFR through the entire TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon and night: Lingering MVFR CIGs possible at
SYR/RME/ITH/BGM; VFR elsewhere. (moderate to high confidence)

Monday: Mainly VFR expected (moderate confidence)

Tuesday...Scattered rain/snow showers along with associated
restrictions. (moderate confidence)

Wednesday...Mainly dry and VFR (moderate confidence)

Thursday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions
(moderate confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...ES/JTC