931
FXUS61 KBGM 070436
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1236 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The frontal boundary that has remained nearly stationary across
the area the last couple of days will finally move off to the
east today, which will allow for showers and thunderstorms to
gradually end from west to east. A brief dry window tonight to
midday Sunday, will give way to an unsettled weather pattern for
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM Update:

Removed mention of thunder for the remainder of the overnight
hours with the environment lacking instability and no
thunderstorms anywhere near the area (the nearest lightning
strikes are found across far southwestern PA at this time).
Otherwise, the forecast remains largely on track. Will have to
see if the forecast for the showers to become more organized
pans out. If not, flooding will likely not occur and may be able
to cancel the Flood Watch early. Likewise, if the showers do
become more organized, there is even a possibility that the
Flood Watch could be extended. This will all be re-evaluated
with the upcoming main forecast package in a few hours.

930 PM Update...

Scattered showers are moving through the western portion of our
region this evening. Showers are expected to become more
organized in nature by early tomorrow morning. Therefore decided
to extend the Flood Watch into Steuben and Schuyler county, and
extend the Flood Watch through 5AM.

630 PM Update...

Initial round of showers that moved through northeast PA a few
hours prior did not cause flash flooding issues. Although the
concern remains over the next few hours as another batch of
showers move in from the west. Flood Watch remain in effect
through midnight over the Twin Tier region and Western Catskills
region where showers are expected to move through. Cut back on
thunder this update as the environment is lacking instability.
With lack of convection there may be less of a concern for flash
flooding, but there is still some potential.

1140 AM Update...

Today will feature the same frontal boundary in our vicinity as
with Thursday, but with more low level moisture and clouds so
low level lapse rates will not be as steep and there will be
more mid level moisture. The environment is not quite as
favorable for microbursts, but with a 250 mb jet max nosing in
with potential for some better shear near 30 knots across more
of the area, there is again a chance for a few strong to severe
storms; earlier than what happened yesterday, too. The Storm
Prediction Center thus places most of our area in a Marginal
Risk for Severe Thunderstorms; which means at least 5 percent
risk of damaging gusts with 25 miles of a point. Hail potential
is considerably less than yesterday, with a narrower Convective
Available Potential Energy (CAPE) profile depicted in model
soundings; much of it taking on a moist-adiabatic appearance.
Surface temperatures will also be only in the 70s for most of
the area, instead of the 80s-near 90 like yesterday. So the
energy will not be as robust for generating any hail cores.

The juicier atmosphere will feature an axis of Precipitable
Water values in excess of 1.5 inches. Individual cells will move
faster than what occurred Thursday, yet will also be plenty
capable of downpours with the moisture content. Locations that
already received heavy rain yesterday will be most susceptible
to this additional rain. Chenango-Otsego-Delaware Counties were
placed in a flood watch last night but with fairly robust
shortwave visible on Water Vapor imagery in Ohio and an increase
in coverage of deep convection this afternoon in the CAMs, the
flood watch has been expanded to include much of the Twin Tiers
of NY and PA.

Tonight, an MCV that is forming in the plains this morning, will
pass close to the region and help enhance the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms as it passes south. This could bring
an additional round of rain through, with up to an additional
inch or more possible. Some of the CAMs have the overnight batch
of rain move through Bradford county and eastward into the
Catskills. If this continues to trend upwards in precipitation
amounts, the flash flood watch may have to be extended into
tomorrow morning.

Northwest flow develops late tonight into Sunday with drier air
starting to advect into the region with a reprieve from the
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM update...

Narrow ridge axis in place across the Northeast US late Saturday
into Sat night will keep weather conditions quiet through Sunday
morning. The ridge will become less amplified and move farther
to the northeast Sunday morning as the next embedded short wave
rotates around the base of the next upper low/trough over the
western Great Lakes. Model guidance (both deterministic and
ensemble data) continues to be in fairly good agreement with the
placement and timing of this incoming short wave.

A good portion of the upper jet streak riding into the Mid
Atlantic region will place NY/PA into the favorable left exit
region where large scale vertical lift will be anticipated, and
co-located with a weakly developing surface low and a narrow
ribbon of deep moisture with PWs around 1-1.5 inches. Forcing
and moisture appear to be favorable for heavy rain once again
for the period of late Monday into Monday night. Another half to
1.5 inches of rain is possible on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM update...

The active pattern will continue through the middle of the week
as another short-wave ejects around the base of the Great Lakes
upper low into the Northeast late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Ensemble data is indicating a 30-50% chance of PWs
greater than 1.5 inches associated with this short wave. There
is a 50-70% chance of greater than 0.5 inch in 24 hours across
central NY and northeast PA.

The pattern dries out late Tuesday through Thursday as high
pressure builds in and a much drier air mass moves in. The
synoptic pattern across the CONUS becomes more defined by a
trough in the west and a ridge in the east. Temperatures will
also be on the rise again through the middle of the week with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the early evening before
conditions begin to gradually fall to IFR tonight at all sites.
Rain showers will move through tonight, but confidence in exact
location was not high enough to include at sites. Fog develops
once again with all terminals likely seeing some IFR to LIFR vis
or cigs tonight at some point, especially after 6Z. Tomorrow a
cold front moves through with drier air so western terminals
such as ELM and ITH may see some VFR conditions by 18Z tomorrow.


Outlook...

Late Friday Night through Saturday...Front in vicinity with
waves of low pressure will cause occasional showers and
associated restrictions. A chance for embedded thunder as well
Saturday, mainly towards KAVP.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Rain gone Saturday night, but
wet ground will probably generate fog for at least KELM and
possibly others Saturday Night. Otherwise, low pressure moving
east with small chance of lingering showers but improving
conditions.

Monday into Wenesday...Potential for isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ038>040.
NY...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ022>025-
     044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG/ES
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...AJG/ES